Trevor Ariza Proving to Be Right Fit at Right Time for Houston Rockets
Trevor Ariza is supposed to be the Houston Rockets' consolation prize, their symbol of offseason misgivings and all that's gone wrong, their reminder of all that should have been.
If the Rockets had their way over the summer, James Harden would be throwing passes to Chandler Parsons, who would dump it to Dwight Howard, who would find a lurking Chris Bosh somewhere on the perimeter for an uncontested jumper. Ariza's arrival was the offshoot of that image retreating into nothingness.
But instead of representing a summer gone awry, he's quickly proving to be the right fit at the right time for the right team.
Initial Influence
Not only did the Rockets lose Bosh to the Miami Heat but they let their No. 3 (Parsons) and 4 (Jeremy Lin) scorers go via restricted free agency and a trade. They also shipped Omer Asik off to the New Orleans Pelicans. Their offseason, once tracking toward a free-agency coup, devolved into a botched venture that couldn't be remedied anytime soon. Not even signing Ariza, an ideal three-and-D guy, could ease the burden from a summer run afield.
Then the 2014-15 campaign actually started, Ariza began dominating and the Rockets continued winning.
Well-deserved credit has been bestowed upon Harden and the provocative stat lines he's recording. But without Ariza, the Rockets don't remain perfect through four games while maintaining a top-six offense and defense.
Like all things this early in the year, their activity, however incredible, comes with asterisks. Four games doesn't prove they're on their way to the Western Conference's best record.
Each of their opening victories has come against teams that failed to win more than 27 games last year. That they've emerged from this metaphorical pillow fight without any fatal wounds is hardly surprising. Better measuring sticks will be found in upcoming games against fellow Western powers like the San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors.
Still, Ariza's performance to start the season can only be considered insanely encouraging—not to mention historic.
Through five contests he's averaging 17.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.8 steals on an other-wordly 58 percent shooting. He's also drilling an unheard of 60 percent of his deep balls, despite firing away from beyond the arc seven times a night.
Following Houston's 108-91 win over the Miami Heat on Tuesday, Ariza is now shooting 10-of-18 on threes above the break and 11-of-17 from the corners, according to NBA.com.
Over the last 30 years, not one other NBA player has converted 60 percent or more of his treys through the season's first five games after attempting at least 35.
No, this three-point clip isn't sustainable. Not one player has ever buried even 50 percent of his long balls for an entire season while averaging four attempts per game. Ariza's hand would have to double as a legitimate incendiary device. (For what it's worth: Mayo would go on to nail 40.7 percent of his bombs the year [2012-13] he accomplished the same four-game feat.)
Rather than get caught up in asking questions that have obvious answers—Is Ariza's shooting sustainable?—it's better to focus on the impact he's having and the role he's playing. He's been everything the Rockets could have hoped for and then some.
And then some more.
This is to say, it's time to start asking different questions.
Filling Big Shoes
Is Ariza actually an upgrade over Parsons?
Too early to tell. That the question can even be entertained says it all. Ariza has been that good, and yes, is on pace to render himself an upgrade.
Take a look at how Parsons' and Ariza's numbers stack up this year:
| 1 | Trevor Ariza | 5 | 34.4 | 5.8 | 10.0 | .580 | 4.2 | 7.0 | .600 | 2.0 | .900 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 17.6 |
| 2 | Chandler Parsons | 4 | 33.0 | 6.8 | 13.5 | .500 | 2.0 | 4.5 | .444 | 3.8 | .867 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 18.8 |
Their offensive output is strikingly similar. Ariza is nearly matching Parsons point for point while attempting fewer shots and shooting a higher percentage from the floor. He's been especially dangerous in catch-and-shoot situations, hitting on 60 percent of his attempts overall and from long range, making him an exemplary complement to Harden's drive-and-kick stylings and Houston's space-oriented system:
As expected, Ariza's presence can also be strongly felt on the defensive end, where he really starts to separate himself from Parsons. The Rockets allowed teams to score 104 points per 100 possessions when Parsons was on the floor last year, the equivalent of a top-14 defense, according to NBA.com (subscription required). With Ariza in the game, they're giving up just 92.7 points per 100 possessions. Consider that the league's best defense in 2013-14, the Indiana Pacers, relinquished 96.7.
Of everything Ariza has done, this is admittedly the least surprising. He always projected as a lateral offensive acquisition and defensive upgrade, something The Dream Shake's Matt Rothstein discussed while riffing on Ariza's arrival ahead of 2014-15:
"In terms of his likelihood to be put on billboards and bedroom posters, Ariza can't hold a candle to Chandler Parsons' impact. But even though Chandler had a better offensive rating last year, that was mostly due to his effective penetration. By any available metric, Trevor had a better shooting year. He will obviously be a better defender, and his rebounding rate beat Chandler's as well (and before you blame Dwight for that, remember Marnê Gorlario and John Wall's good rebound rate for his position).
Without a doubt, Parsons was a more creative player off the bounce, but Ariza's 3-and-D game fits this team like a glove.
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Unlike Parsons, Ariza begins his defensive stance long before his opponent has the rock; his ball-prevention is among the best in the league. Opponents have to work just to catch the ball off a pass. If they do, he's all over them, in their grill, hounding the ball, trying to force turnovers.
When the Rockets obliterated the Los Angeles Lakers in their second game of the year, it was Ariza who made life difficult on Kobe Bryant. Twelve of his 17 shots were contested—of which he made only five—and he was allotted fewer touches than Carlos Boozer.
That's the impact Ariza can have. He often removes the best wing scorer from the opposing team's offensive game plan, limiting that scorer's opportunities and diminishing his effectiveness.
"We set the tone defensively and then everything else took care of itself," Ariza said after the Rockets held the Utah Jazz to 93 points, per The Associated Press, via ESPN.com. "We have pretty good basketball IQ out there so that makes it easier, but we're still learning how each other plays."
Again, it has only been a few games. There is still plenty left for the Rockets to prove. But Ariza has already given them the No. 3 option they lost in Parsons in addition to the pesky perimeter defender he never was.
Moving On Without Looking Back
Moving on figured to be an issue in Houston this season.
After what transpired over the summer, how could it not be? The Rockets lost numerous players. Key players. Important cogs in their Western Conference-surviving machine. They would inevitably find themselves reflecting on what went wrong, lamenting the regression they were, without question, speeding toward.
But in came Ariza, ignoring everything, boasting an unflappable mindset that the Houston Chronicle's Jenny Dial Creech says proved infectious from the jump.
He is not to be mistaken for a savior. The Rockets have two superstars in Howard and Harden who will do the saving. He is simply, yet powerfully, a role player doing what's expected of him—defending and shooting—and doing it better than anticipated.
Player and team fits don't get much better.
Or more timely.
Regression really wasn't an option for this squad. Not even slightly. The Western Conference is a gauntlet of contenders. One misstep can bury an entire team, setting rebuilding and retooling periods back more than a season.
Upon pillaging their rotation of valuable depth, the Rockets could have been one of those teams, a riches-to-rags story that put their contender status in jeopardy and their championship hopes on hold. Ariza has thus far been one of the reasons why that respite from the ranks of the elite doesn't look like it's coming.
However long his all-world play lasts approaches irrelevance. If and when he cools off, Ariza will still have given the Rockets something better: the means to push forward knowing that, despite their losses, they have enough to compete now.
*Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference and NBA.com unless otherwise cited.
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