College Football Rankings 2014: NCAA Playoff Standings and Key Week 10 Picks
This week, the College Football Playoff selection committee gave coaches, players and fans its first outlook on how the season is shaping up so far. The Week 10 rankings eliminate any questions about how the race sets up heading into the stretch run.
As expected, the SEC dominates the top portion of the first batch of standings with four teams inside the top six. That includes the No. 1 team in the country, Mississippi State. The question is whether the conference will beat each other up enough to open the door for others to join the conversation.
With that in mind, let's check out the complete Top 25 list for the first official playoff rankings. It's followed by a preview and prediction for three of the most important games on tap in Week 10.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
College Football Playoff Rankings
| 1 | Mississippi State | 7-0 |
| 2 | Florida State | 7-0 |
| 3 | Auburn | 6-1 |
| 4 | Ole Miss | 7-1 |
| 5 | Oregon | 7-1 |
| 6 | Alabama | 7-1 |
| 7 | TCU | 6-1 |
| 8 | Michigan State | 7-1 |
| 9 | Kansas State | 6-1 |
| 10 | Notre Dame | 6-1 |
| 11 | Georgia | 6-1 |
| 12 | Arizona | 6-1 |
| 13 | Baylor | 6-1 |
| 14 | Arizona State | 6-1 |
| 15 | Nebraska | 7-1 |
| 16 | Ohio State | 6-1 |
| 17 | Utah | 6-1 |
| 18 | Oklahoma | 5-2 |
| 19 | LSU | 7-2 |
| 20 | West Virginia | 6-2 |
| 21 | Clemson | 6-2 |
| 22 | UCLA | 6-2 |
| 23 | East Carolina | 6-1 |
| 24 | Duke | 6-1 |
| 25 | Louisville | 6-2 |
Predictions for Biggest Week 10 Games
No. 2 Florida State at No. 25 Louisville
Florida State is the reigning champion and undefeated through seven games, yet it doesn't hold the top spot in the rankings. That's likely because the committee is waiting to see the Seminoles play a dominant brand of football against a big-time opponent.
Every time the level of competition has been raised, whether it be Oklahoma State, Clemson or Notre Dame, they have only squeaked by. Going on the road to Louisville provides them with an opportunity to make a major statement on Thursday night.
It won't be easy, though. The Cardinals rank fourth in the nation in scoring defense. And Sharon Katz and Toby Petitpas of ESPN.com note Jameis Winston has never faced a defense that ranked in the top 25 in defensive efficiency on passing plays:
"Louisville, on the other hand, leads the nation in that stat, adding about 13 points per game to its net scoring margin as a result of its defense on passing plays. The Cardinals have allowed the lowest Total QBR in the nation and only NC State's Jacoby Brissett has posted a raw QBR above 25 against them (0-100 scale, 50 is average).
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The Cardinals don't have an explosive offense to pair with that rock-solid defense, so Florida State does have some margin for error. But if it comes out of the gate sluggish, the pieces are definitely in place for an upset.
Ultimately, it's a turning-point game. Either the Seminoles will finally showcase their dominance or Louisville will finish the job those aforementioned teams couldn't and shake up the playoff race.
Prediction: Florida State by 10
No. 3 Auburn at No. 4 Ole Miss
No game has generated more hype this week, and rightfully so. The committee judged that these are the best two one-loss teams in the country based on their current resumes. One team will go a long way to bolster it even further on Saturday.
Ole Miss could still be undefeated if not for botching the end sequence last week against LSU. Multiple mistakes allowed the Tigers to secure a game-ending interception rather than see the Rebels send the game into overtime with a field goal.
The rankings gave Bo Wallace and Co. a reprieve, though. They are still firmly in position to make the playoffs. Ryan Black of the Ledger-Enquirer passed along comments from head coach Hugh Freeze, who's tried to convince his team not to put too much stock in the current standings.
"I tell our kids here that we're focused solely, really, on one ranking, and that would be what's issued Dec. 7. I think that's the one that really matters," he said. "I recognize that the committee, they have a difficult job. We have confidence in them and I know that they're going to judge the full schedule of games."
The biggest key to this game is the efficiency of Auburn's offense. In two road games against ranked opponents, the Tigers averaged just over 21 points. In all other games, they averaged better than 46 points. The latter group includes a 41-point outburst against LSU.
This should be a game that goes right down to the wire. In the end, the slight edge goes to the more balanced team overall, which is Auburn.
Prediction: Auburn by three
No. 17 Utah at No. 14 Arizona State
The good news for both of these teams is that they are still alive in the playoff race at this stage of the season. The bad news is they likely have to win out in order to make it. So that makes this a virtual elimination game, which will be common in the weeks ahead.
Utah is riding a three-game winning streak, but it's been playing with fire. The Utes' only game during that streak decided by more than a field goal came in double overtime against Oregon State. They need the fourth-quarter defense to improve this week.
Defense is also the focal point for Arizona State. The Sun Devils gave up 96 points over two weeks against UCLA and USC. They rebounded by giving up just 20 in wins over Stanford and Washington. With three games against ranked foes over the final five, the unit must continue to improve.
If their defense holds up, the passing game will make the difference. Arizona State is averaging more than 300 yards per game through the air. Utah is a shade under 200. It should be enough of an advantage for the home side to score a narrow victory.
Prediction: Arizona State by four
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
