Breaking Down Early Favorites for 2014-15 NBA Rookie of the Year
After a few games into the NBA's regular-season schedule, the Rookie of the Year race is starting to take shape. Unfortunately, Los Angeles Lakers forward Julius Randle had to bow out with a broken leg.
At this point, it appears we could be looking at a five-man showdown. There just aren't too many rookies expected to play consistent minutes, as many of them aren't ready or find themselves buried behind veterans.
These are our favorites for Rookie of the Year this season based on their expected roles and impact for their teams in 2014-15.
Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic
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With the Orlando Magic looking at another ugly season, and Luke Ridnour the only other true point guard on the team, Elfrid Payton will get his chance to fill up box scores as a rookie. And he may not even need much of a jumper to make it happen.
Unless the Boston Celtics trade Rajon Rondo and hand the reins over to Marcus Smart, Payton seems like a lock to lead all rookies in assists. He led the Orlando Summer League in assists (7.0), averaged 5.5 dimes in preseason and dished out seven helpers in his NBA debut against the New Orleans Hornets. He followed that up with another seven dimes Thursday versus the Washington Wizards, although he did turn it over six times.
Payton is slick off the dribble and appears to be operating in pass-first mode. And at 6'4" with smooth athleticism and long arms, he really fits right into the pro game from a physical standpoint. He's also an excellent rebounder for a guard—I wouldn't be surprised if he matched Andrew Wiggins' numbers on the boards this season.
Payton will probably fall behind his competitors in the scoring category, and that will hurt him in the voting. But he will still be good for around eight to 10 points per game off drives, floaters, free throws and fast breaks. And while it might not show up on the stat sheet, Payton plays some pretty disruptive defense on the ball.
He is a long shot, but if you're looking for a Rookie of the Year sleeper in this year's field, Payton fits the bill.
Doug McDermott, Chicago Bulls
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Doug McDermott might not have as many "takeover" games or stretches as Andrew Wiggins or Jabari Parker, but he should outperform both in terms of efficiency while putting up around eight to 12 points every night. And in Chicago, he's in a position that allows him to play to his strengths as a catch-and-scorer.
He's as effective as they come for a rookie shooter, and with top-notch passing big men like Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah—not to mention a breakdown point guard in Derrick Rose—the ball is going to find McDermott whether he can create his own shot or not.
In fact, ESPN's Fran Fraschilla predicted McDermott would end up with five 30-point games this year.
He looked awfully comfortable in Chicago's opener against the Knicks—McDermott hit 5-of-9 shots off the bench without having to press or force up looks. And with Jimmy Butler out with a sprained left thumb, those shots will continue to be there for him.
"I happened to get going early, and it carried me the rest of the way," McDermott told K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune. "Obviously, it stinks to see Jimmy go down. But it’s a good opportunity."
The fact he's a high-basketball IQ guy with an understanding of the game will only enhance his effectiveness on the floor, even if it doesn't show up in the box scores.
McDermott might be the only rookie who ends up with a significant role on a playoff team. And that's something voters might value down the road, especially if Wiggins, Parker and Nerlens Noel—all three of whom are likely to play for duds this year—underwhelm in 2014-15.
Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers
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If there's one thing we know for sure, it's that Nerlens Noel won't have to worry about playing time or opportunity in Philadelphia. With 30 or so minutes a night, you can write him in for a good seven to 10 boards every game. It's inevitable, given his 6'11" size, athleticism and motor.
Feel free to Sharpie in Noel as the rookie leader in blocked shots. Rim protection has been his thing since high school, and that isn't changing any time soon. Noel led the country in shot-blocking at Kentucky (4.4 per game), racked up 10 blocks in four preseason games and three in his NBA debut.
He's just so quick off the floor. Weak-side rejections, on-ball stuffs, chase-down swats—between Noel's foot speed, wingspan (7'4") and instincts, he covers a ton of ground and airspace.
It's just too bad he's not much of an offensive player. And on the Sixers, a team that lacks talent to play off, he's going to be put in a position that forces him to play to his biggest weakness—creating. Outside of Michael Carter-Williams, who's currently hurt, there aren't many set-up men on the roster or guys who draw attention off the dribble.
Chances are it leads to a field-goal percentage lower than most would like, but Noel will still be good for a couple of easy ones a night—whether they're in transition, on the offensive glass or as a finish off drive-and-dumps.
In the meantime, we will see him deliver the occasional jump hook or runner from the elbow. Just don't expect them on an every-game basis. Still, Noel will rack up his fair share of double-doubles, and with Julius Randle out for the year, he's a good bet to lead all rookies in that department as well.
I'm thinking of an average stat line around 10 points, 7.5 boards and 1.5 blocks a game.
Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks
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There's a solid case to be made for Jabari Parker as the 2014-15 NBA Rookie of the Year favorite.
The touches will be there for him in Milwaukee, where the team has nowhere to go and no legitimate forwards to take away his minutes. And offensively, Parker looked sharper than any rookie in preseason, having averaged 15.1 points through seven games.
He's a threat to score from every spot on the floor, from the post and mid-range to the low block and three-point arc. Pull-ups, step-backs and fallaways—Parker has the ability to separate one-on-one for balanced looks at the rim.
He'll likely get hot and cold as a shooter from outside, but in terms of point production, his ability to finish through contact inside or fly coast-to-coast on the break will keep his scoring numbers up even on off days.
Parker will also be good for an average of at least five or six boards after leading the ACC (8.8) and pulling in over eight rebounds a game in summer league. If the Bucks start playing him at power forward, look for those numbers to increase.
At this point, Parker looks like the best bet to lead all rookies in scoring, and that will go a long way in the Rookie of the Year voting process. It always does.
Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves
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Andrew Wiggins will be looking at a much greener light in Minnesota than he would have had in Cleveland, and that's good news for his Rookie of the Year chances.
On a team expected to compete for lottery position, and one without many standout wings, Wiggins could eventually emerge as one of the lineup's go-to options, though it would probably take a few months. In the meantime, Wiggins will likely do most of his work off the ball in a spot-up shooting and slashing role.
Though the sample size is tiny, he's looked comfortable with the extended NBA three-point arc, having made four of his first six attempts between preseason and his NBA debut against the Memphis Grizzlies. Wiggins' shooting mechanics tend to change when contested, but as a spot-up threat, he's got a quick, high, straight-up-and-down release.
Wiggins will also pick up his fair share of buckets on the break, where he's automatic in the open floor, and on the offensive glass, where his second jump is lightning. And as long as he's out there and active, the free throws will follow. Wiggins uses a first step to beat perimeter defenders and a last one to explode up and beat rim-protectors to the spot.
As the season gets going, so will his one-on-one game and confidence. Right now, Wiggins is capable as a step-back shooter, scorer in the post or pull-up weapon off the dribble. But "capable" doesn't result in consistency or a high conversion rate.
Offensively, Wiggins will have his ups, which will showcase his All-Star potential, as well as his downs, which will reflect a somewhat unpolished skill set. He'll definitely be fun to watch defensively—where he's got lockdown tools that could allow him to guard both wing positions.
Overall, between Wiggins' spectacular athleticism, threatening jumper and capable one-on-one attack, expect production mixed with inefficiency in 2014-15. Somewhere around the range of 13 to 14 points per game on 43 percent shooting sounds about right.
