LeFevour Fever and Owls Flying High: MAC Preview/Predictions

About the Rankings and Predictions

After months of evaluating talent and depth charts, reviewing preseason magazines, ranking coaches and recruiting classes, and browsing a number of Web sites, here is my conference preview for 2009.  These rankings are based on my own formula that takes into account recruiting, returning experience, player talent, coaching, recent history, and adjustments from last season (turnover margin, close game win/loss record, injuries, etc.).  These variables create a power ranking.

Team schedules are then evaluated, and predictions are made for each game based on power rankings and home field advantage scoring.  The final rankings are reflective of power rating, projected win/loss record, and strength of schedule. 

Conference Overview

The MAC in some aspects is representative of the United States as a whole, as the gap between rich and poor continues to widen.  The top teams in the MAC are capable of scaring anyone on any given day, but those at the bottom continue to pull the league down.  This season, the MAC scores as the worst of the 11 conferences in FBS.

Since 2000, current MAC teams have won 47 games versus BCS conference teams, posting an overall record of 47-247.  This season there will be no shortage of opportunities for upsets again.  The MAC has 29 games scheduled against BCS teams. 

Looking at the conference, however, last season’s championship game participants have major questions.  Buffalo needs a new quarterback to throw to some fantastic receivers. Ball State also lost Nate Davis, as well as head coach Brady Hoke, and so some rebuilding can be expected.

Let's take a look at the divisional outlook.

MAC WEST

6.  Ball State Cardinals

The loss of Nate Davis and Brady Hoke will be huge for the program.  Even worse, however, will be the need to replace four offensive linemen.  On defense, the front wall returns intact (but the team allowed 160+ yards rushing per game last year), and the team needs to replace a number of starters in the back seven. 

Coach Stan Parrish seems to be a downgrade from Hoke, but sometimes those are the breaks.  The schedule does not offer many breaks either, after the first few weeks.  The most winnable conference games appear to be close losses (at Eastern Michigan and home dates with Bowling Green and Toledo).

Projected record: 2-10 (0-8 MAC)

5.  Eastern Michigan Eagles

Historically, the Eagles have been one of the worst teams in FBS, going 31-84 over the last 20 years.  Enter new coach Ron English, who first missive is to meld the woeful defense into a respectable unit.  Last year’s defense allowed over 400 yards and 35 points per game. 

There is a wealth of experience returning, including QB Andy Schmitt.  In total, 18 starters return to the offense and defense, which should be enough to eke out three victories in a transition season.

Projected record: 3-9 (2-6 MAC)

4.  Western Michigan Broncos

With QB Tim Hiller, the Broncos are considered by many to be the second-best team in the MAC.  Sure, the talent and experience are in place, and head coach Bill Cubit has won 29 games in four seasons here, but there are questions about this team.  Only three defensive starters return, and the offense loses a number of last year’s top receivers. 

In addition, the team was 4-0 in close games last season and will likely not duplicate that result.  Throw in a tough mid-season conference stretch (at Northern Illinois, at Toledo, vs. Central Michigan) and the result is a somewhat disappointing season.

Projected record: 6-6 (5-3 MAC)

3.  Northern Illinois Huskies

The Huskies were a surprise bowl team last season under then first-year head coach Jerry Kill.  The team had a strong rushing attack and tenacious defense that finished in the top 15 in the nation.  Only three starters return from that unit, but the offense should be strong enough to give the defense time to jell. 

QB Harris and RB Brown look to build on successful frosh campaigns, and lead the Huskies to another bowl game.  There is still a long ways to go before competing for a conference title, but the team is headed in the right direction.  The schedule is favorable until the last two games (at Ohio and at Central Michigan).

Projected record: 7-5 (5-3 MAC)

2.  Toledo Rockets

The Rockets struggled last season going 3-9, but this season they return 18 starters and both specialists for new coach Tim Beckman.  Expect to see a spread-based rushing attack, which seems suited for the personnel, with two good RBs and all five starters returning from the line.  The defense needs work, but has more talent and experience than last year, and so should show strong improvement. 

Don’t forget that this is a Toledo team that reeled off 12 straight winning seasons from 1994-2005.  The Rockets will take their non-conference lumps (opening with Purdue, Colorado and Ohio State) but the conference schedule sets up well for a surprise second place finish in the West.

Projected record: 8-4 (7-1 MAC)

1.  Central Michigan Chippewas

The Chips are nearly everyone’s preseason MAC favorite, and with good reason.  All-Conference QB Dan LeFevour returns (think Tebow-like), as does 10 defensive starters.  Coach Butch Jones' squad won the MAC in 2007 and finished second in the West last year.  The team’s rushing game should improve, and there is depth and talent at receiver.  In addition, the program has two of the better specialists in the league in kicker Aguila and punter Hartmann. 

This team appears loaded and, if they do not play for the conference title, it will be a disappointing season in Mount Pleasant.  There does not appear to be a conference team capable of beating the Chippewas but non-conference games at Arizona, Michigan State, and Boston College might be a tall order for this squad.

Projected record: 10-3 (8-0 MAC), Division winner

MAC EAST

7.  Miami, OH Redhawks

In 2008, Miami struggled mightily and the result is a new coaching staff.  Michael Haywood will likely succeed given time, as he is a strong recruiter, but this team does not look like one that will make a leap this season.  There are 13 starters returning, but the depth chart is littered with freshmen and sophomores that have little real game experience. 

The defense, which was 106th in the country versus the run, will likely feature some non-traditional sets to slow down the MAC’s spread offenses.  The Redhawk offense, on the other hand, must decrease turnovers and develop more consistency in all phases.  Expect improvement throughout the year, but this team will likely finish at the bottom of the East.

Projected record: 2-10 (2-6 MAC)

6.  Kent State Golden Flashes

In 2006, the Flashes were 6-6, posting just their second non-losing record this decade.  They have been unable to sustain the momentum, however, and this appears to be a make or break year for head coach Doug Martin.  On offense, the team will feature RB Eugene Jarvis working behind a veteran line.  They will have to run the ball because there is uncertainty at quarterback and wide receiver. 

The defense returns seven starters, and the secondary might be the strength of the team.  This is a team that can be competitive, but will likely not get the breaks it needs, unless the red zone defense improves (last in the conference in 2008) and there is much more production from the inexperienced quarterbacks. 

Projected record: 3-9 (2-6 MAC)

5.  Akron Zips

Last season, the Zips caught some bad bounces, nearly upsetting Cincinnati (15-17), and losing three conference games by a touchdown or less.  The balanced offense returns nine starters, including four offensive linemen and four wide outs with starting experience. 

The other changes on offense are new offensive coordinator (Shane Montgomery former head coach of Miami, Ohio) and quarterback coach Walt Harris (former head coach of Pittsburgh).  If the coaches can tap the potential of QB Chris Jacqueman, this might be the most explosive offense in the conference. 

On defense, Akron needs to replace nearly its entire front seven, and a number of sophomores will be looked to for depth on the line.  Against the offenses in this conference, that will be the difference between a season of contention and another mid-tier finish.

Projected record: 4-8 (3-5 MAC)

4.  Bowling Green Falcons

After a disappointing 6-6 campaign, the Falcons parted ways with coach Gregg Brandon and bring in Dave Clawson.  Though he was the leader of a woeful Tennessee offense last season, he was very successful as the head coach of Richmond prior to that. 

He inherits a team with the pieces in place to contend for a division championship at least on offense.  QB Tyler Sheehan will not be the exclusive focus of the offense, and balance will be sought, which should help in his maturity as a third year starter.  On defense, however, there are only three returning starters, and not much depth from last year’s team. 

The incoming freshman class will need to contribute.  The Falcons will be swamped with the non-conference schedule (Troy, Boise State, and Missouri) but should be around the .500 mark in the conference when all is said and done.

Projected record: 3-9 (3-5 MAC)

3.  Buffalo Bulls

The Bulls were one of the best stories of last season, winning the MAC and playing in its first bowl game.  Head coach Turner Gill was linked to a number of high profile jobs, but is ultimately back for perhaps his last seasons with Buffalo. 

This year’s team has a good nucleus of returning talent, including potential All-American receiver Naaman Roosevelt.  The defense should be fine with nine starters returning, including and intact linebacking corps and secondary.  The only major questions are at QB and the DL which was run on easily last season. 

Even with all the starters back, Buffalo has a tougher schedule than last season, and they probably will not duplicate last season’s three OT wins.  Still, the team appears headed in the right direction.

Projected record: 4-8 (3-5 MAC)

2.  Temple Owls

Head coach Al Golden is doing the unthinkable—he has Temple on the verge of a bowl bid.  Last season’s five wins was the most since 1990 (when the team went 7-4).  Last year’s defense had a “bend but don’t break” mindset, finishing 81st in yards allowed, but a surprising 47th in points allowed.  That unit returns a solid linebacking corps, as well as a fierce front wall that features All-MAC NT Andre Nesbett. 

The Owls offense has to replace a number of players, from a unit that finished no higher than 70th in scoring, rushing, passing, or total offense.  The Owls would have been bowling last season, but they lost five games by a combined 18 points. 

The schedule is easier, with the team missing Central and Western Michigan, and playing non-conference games versus Army, Navy, and Villanova.  This year, the team should have play in its third bowl ever, and first since 1979.

Projected record: 9-3 (6-2 MAC)

1.  Ohio Bobcats

Okay, on paper, this should be something of a rebuilding season for the Bobcats.  Only 13 starters return, though there is talent throughout this roster, and a proven commodity in head coach Frank Solich.  The offensive line has to replace three starters, but the top four running backs and receivers return. 

Sophomore LB Noah Keller led the team with a 104 stops last season, and he will anchor this defense.  There are concerns about the secondary, and there are raw players on the line.  The schedule, however, is light, as the team’s toughest conference opponents come to Peden Stadium. 

Games with Connecticut and Tennessee look like sure losses, but other than that, Ohio will cut down on its turnovers and win ‘em all.

Projected record: 10-3 (8-0 MAC), Division winner

Conference Title Game Prediction

Ohio will put up a good fight, but in the end, there will be too much Dan LeFevour for the Bobcats to overcome.  Central Michigan wins to become MAC champs for the second time in three years.  Central Michigan 27-23.