Notre Dame Football: The Irish's Road to Making the College Football Playoff

The early ballots are in. Notre Dame's got work to do.

That's hardly surprising, especially with the Irish's most impressive performance coming in defeat to No. 2 Florida State. But that the College Football Playoff's selection committee slotted the Irish in at No. 10 in their first official ballot gives you an idea that not only do the Irish have to win their remaining football games, but they'll need some help along the way.

But that help is on the way. Both with opportunities on the field and challenges coming to the programs ranked ahead of the Irish. So while panic has likely set in for every contender not inside the top four, a quick history lesson should at least help cure the temporary insanity that's set in. 

Just take a look at the shakeup that hit college football last season from Week 9 on. No. 1 Alabama went 4-1 down the stretch and lost its chance to play for the BCS title. No. 2 Oregon went 3-2 and fell outside the Top 10. Undefeated FSU leap-frogged both by winning and ended up in the title game, while No. 4 Ohio State lost late and fell to No. 6.

At this time last year, Miami was No. 6 in the country and undefeated. Al Golden's team went 3-3 to close the season and finished unranked.

Recent history won't make Irish fans feel better about where they sit in these initial rankings. But with five more opportunities to play this season, the focus stays on the field for Brian Kelly, whose young team isn't good enough to win games and scoreboard watch. 

Record	CFP Rank	AP Poll	Coaches Poll	Strength of Schedule
6-1	10	6	7	41

Biggest Obstacles to Playoff Berth

Each of the five teams Notre Dame faces this November has the ability to beat the Irish. That's reason enough for this young football team to keep their heads down and let everything sort itself out. 

The first challenge comes this weekend from Navy, who last year played a near-perfect game and almost left South Bend with another shocking upset. From there the Irish travel to the desert, where the Sun Devils and their dynamic passing offense await. 

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Ranked 14th in the poll and likely to climb higher if they beat Utah this weekend, a victory over Arizona State is the type of win that impressed the committee early. The Sun Devils could continue to be the Irish's best friends by winning after they play the Irish, as well, with Arizona and two other conference games still on their slate before a potential Pac-12 title game. 

Northwestern isn't likely to be ranked regardless of what happens in its next two games against Iowa and Michigan, but Pat Fitzgerald's team has won some big games. They knocked off a Wisconsin team that had LSU on the ropes and blew out a Penn State team that took Ohio State to overtime. While that likely says more about the Big Ten this year than the Wildcats, in a rivalry for the pride of Chicagoland, expect Notre Dame's neighbors from Evanston to come to South Bend looking to spring an upset. 

While Louisville slotted in at No. 25 in the initial playoff rankings, they'll have a chance to shoot up the boards come Thursday against Florida State. That upset would likely hurt the Irish now but maybe help them later if they're able to take care of the Cardinal when they come to town in a few weeks. 

Lastly, the season ends in Southern California for the annual date with USC. In Steve Sarkisian's first season atop Troy, the Trojans have lost three close games, bumping them from any shot at a playoff berth. But they're poised to be spoilers down the stretch, with rivalry games against UCLA and the Irish remaining. 

While none of Notre Dame's future opponents have the possibility of being a "signature victory" (one of the more ridiculous notions in college football), five more wins would put the Irish at a balanced 11-1 that will match up with the best records in college football.  

Date	Opponent
Nov. 1	at Navy (played at FedExField)
Nov. 8	at No. 14 Arizona State
Nov. 15	NORTHWESTERN
Nov. 22	No. 25 LOUISVILLE
Nov. 29	at USC

Help Needed

At this point, it's clear that Notre Dame needs some help to jump into the four playoff spots. But that help is coming in November. Of the nine teams ranked ahead of the Irish, six will square off, creating elimination games along the way. TCU and Kansas State will play a Big 12 elimination game. The Egg Bowl and the Iron Bowl will add another loss to the ledgers of either Mississippi State or Ole Miss, as well as Alabama and Auburn. 

At this point, worrying about Oregon or Michigan State looking like the better one-loss team is a fruitless endeavor. The Ducks have made a habit of late-season swoons lately, and even if the Spartans get by Ohio State this weekend, matching resumes between a team with wins over Jacksonville State, Eastern Michigan and Wyoming—in addition to a 19-point loss—will likely come out in Notre Dame's favor, especially if Florida State continues to win. 

While the "survive and advance" mentality that reigned during the BCS era of human polls has many fans worried that there's too much ground to make up or teams to leap frog, committee chairman Jeff Long tried his best to acknowledge that this vote is merely a snapshot that's certain to change. 

"Everyone on the selection committee recognized that our rankings will change over the next six weeks," Long told ESPN's Rece Davis during the telecast. "I think that's important for us to emphasize. We expect our rankings to change over the next six weeks. One week's rankings won't influence the next week's rankings."

Prediction

For as much chatter as there is certain to be over the coming weeks, Notre Dame's goals remain clear. Win the remainder of your football games, and let the rest sort itself out. 

In many ways, the committee's placement of the Irish makes sense when you consider that it's far too early to reward teams for impressive losses. So while an 11-1 Notre Dame team likely gets that benefit of the doubt, a 6-1 team with its best victory a 17-14 struggle over a now-three-loss Stanford team doesn't. 

It's up to the Irish to change perceptions. They can do that by winning impressively over their five remaining opponents. They've have a prime-time opportunity to blow by Navy. They have a rare 3:30 p.m. ET start for an away game, where a national audience will see them battle Arizona State. Add in quality-win opportunities against Louisville and USC, and everything is still possible. 

Brian Kelly can use the loss to Florida State as fuel for November. And he'll be able to use Notre Dame's placement in the first playoff poll in the same way. 

An 11-1 Notre Dame team a controversial penalty away from being unbeaten won't be left on the outside looking in. So if the Irish can run the table in November, they'll have a month to prepare for a battle with the No. 1 seed.