Texas Football: Game-by-Game Predictions for the Month of November
It's crunch time for the Texas Longhorns, who must win three of their four November games to become bowl eligible.
They might get close, but we've seen enough of this group to know that Charlie Strong's team will lose at least two against Texas Tech, West Virginia, Oklahoma State and TCU.
Strong knows reaching that ever-important bowl will be tough, as he told the media at his Monday press conference:
"It's all about the seniors. I said to them, We got to get them to a bowl game. You look at our schedule, I know you're sitting there with two ranked teams on it. We haven't beaten a ranked team. The main thing is if we come together as a football team, don't hurt ourselves, if we just execute, who knows. If we play the way we're capable of playing, we'll see how we end up with these next four.
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The two ranked teams Texas will face are No. 20 West Virginia and No. 7 TCU, per the College Football Playoff committee, which are buttressed by matchups with defensively challenged Texas Tech and the anemic Oklahoma State offense.
There should be two wins there to create some buzz that Texas could overcome the odds, but those dreams will come to an end on Thanksgiving.
11/1 at Texas Tech
1 of 4
Texas kicks off its last month of the season with a winnable matchup at Texas Tech, with Red Raiders starting quarterback Davis Webb day-to-day with an ankle injury, per TexasTech.com.
If Webb sits, the Longhorns have no excuse for losing this game. The Red Raiders allow 4.95 yards per carry and 8.0 per pass, which rank No. 102 and No. 113 respectively in the nation, per CFBStats.com.
Looking at those numbers, it should surprise no one that Kliff Kingsbury's team got torched for 82 points by TCU this past Saturday.
Based on that alone, this should be a bounce-back showing for Tyrone Swoopes and the offense. The sophomore still has the arm to get vertical in this matchup, and there's not a single Red Raider that can match his physicality in the open field.
The real question in this game is whether Texas can finally get a running back to the second level. The Horns still do not have a 100-yard rusher on the season, and their only hope for sneaking into a bowl game is to find a consistent ground attack.
It's this game or bust for that phase of the offense.
PREDICTION: Texas 34, Texas Tech 20
11/8 vs. West Virginia
2 of 4
Currently ranked No. 20 in the nation, West Virginia sneaked up on this season with a potent passing attack and a surprisingly good defense.
Offense is the calling card of Dana Holgorsen's Mountaineers, who rank No. 22 in the nation with 36.9 points per game. His offense has run more plays than any other team in the conference and has turned the Big 12's leading receiver, Kevin White, into a bonafide star.
"WVU WR Kevin White's streak of seven consecutive 100-yard games is over. He had 3 rec, 27 yards, TD today. He's still pretty good.
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All of that spells major trouble for the Longhorns. West Virginia plays such good defense, as evidenced by its top-20 defensive S&P-plus ranking, per Football Outsiders.
The Mountaineers have struggled in road matchups with Maryland and Texas Tech, so perhaps Texas will be able to hang around for a while. However, unless the offense shows great improvement, this is another one of those teams that is going to wear out the Longhorns come the second half.
PREDICTION: West Virginia 33, Texas 20
11/15 at Oklahoma State
3 of 4
Believe it or not, there's a Big 12 offense that's struggling even more than that of the Longhorns.
That offense belongs to the Oklahoma State Cowboys, who have scored only one offensive touchdown in their last 10 quarters of play. Quarterback Daxx Garman has been the root of the troubles, completing just 47 percent of his passes with one touchdown against four picks.
J.W. Walsh could return from his foot injury by this point, but it won't matter against this Longhorn front. Texas still ranks first in the Big 12 with 26 sacks on the year, while the Cowboys have given up the most with 20.
Facing a middling-at-best defense, Texas will be able to score enough points to remain in the hunt for a bowl when it runs into TCU.
PREDICTION: Texas 24, Oklahoma State 16
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11/27 vs. TCU
4 of 4
Coming off their most recent performances, the Thanksgiving matchup between Texas and TCU could not look more lopsided.
The Horned Frogs have come out of nowhere to average 50.4 points per game, tops in the country.
They've been held under 40 points just twice all year, and their one loss came against Baylor in a 61-58 shootout that could have gone either way.
Fresh off being shut out at Kansas State, the Longhorn offense ranks in the bottom 20 with just 20.8 points per game. The Horns have broken 20 only four times, which is once more than they've been held to a touchdown or less.
Week 10's matchup with West Virginia will tell us more about how the TCU defense can handle the deep ball. The Horned Frogs were burned for touchdowns of 66, 29, 67, 47, 28 and 25 in that Baylor defeat, so Swoopes' arm might be able to keep Texas in this one.
Still, this feels like another game that follows the script of Texas' own loss to Baylor and most recent one in Manhattan, KS. The defense will keep it close in the first half, then get run off the field in the second to kill the Longhorns' shot at a bowl.
PREDICTION: TCU 30, Texas 17
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