Who Are the NBA's Most Important Rookies?
Andrew Wiggins will be important one day, but his contributions for the Minnesota Timberwolves won't be all that crucial during the 2014-15 season. After all, the playoffs aren't in the cards for that franchise, at least until the next campaign, at the very earliest.
The same holds true for Nerlens Noel and the bottoming-out Philadelphia 76ers, as well as Jabari Parker and the Milwaukee Bucks. Aaron Gordon may play great defense and throw down some fantastic dunks for the Orlando Magic, while Nik Stauskas drills triples for the Sacramento Kings, but neither is particularly pivotal in the playoff race.
These standouts on lackluster teams may factor into the Rookie of the Year hierarchy, but they're not important, at least in the sense that they won't have a significant impact on the order of the non-lottery portion of the NBA standings. Despite the star-studded nature of this strong draft class, only a handful of first-year players will alter the fortunes of the teams that are at least partially postseason relevant.
It's those players—presented in alphabetical order, not ranked—who are most important during the 2014-15 campaign, even if none of them has emerged as an early-season favorite for any glamorous awards. The time will come for Wiggins, Parker, Noel and the rest of the big names to assert themselves as landscape-altering players, but we aren't there quite yet.
Kyle Anderson
1 of 8
Team: San Antonio Spurs
Age: 21
Position: SF/PF
Preseason Per-Game Stats: 9.5 points, 4.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.0 steals, 0.2 blocks, 17.1 player efficiency rating
Kyle Anderson might not be particularly swift of foot, but even molasses can be quite dangerous in the right system. And while the year is not exactly 1919, and the location most certainly isn't Boston, the San Antonio Spurs are ready to bring another flood into the world's collective consciousness. This time, it's going to be an abundance of positive production from one of the NBA's strangest players.
The 21-year-old from UCLA didn't spend an inordinate amount of time on the floor during the exhibition season, but it's already clear that he's a good fit for the Spurs system. In many ways, Anderson was born to play under Gregg Popovich, where he can use his insane passing skills and advanced court vision to make the best possible basketball plays at all times.
Will Anderson be truly important for San Antonio night in and night out? Probably not, as this is a deep team that returns plenty of prominent pieces from last year's title-winning squad.
But he's important nonetheless, simply due to his status as an insurance policy for an aged, veteran lineup. If Popovich has confidence that the rookie can play big minutes when called upon, it will be easier for the head coach to rest key players like Kawhi Leonard, Tim Duncan, Boris Diaw and Manu Ginobili, preventing them from wearing down before the stretch run.
"It has been (an opportunity), for sure," the former Bruin told Mike Monroe of the San Antonio Express-News, referring to the eye infection that has plagued Leonard. "I'm not rooting for him to stay out. I want him to come back. I realize how much he helps this team. We're just waiting on him, and we'll see where that goes."
If Anderson capitalizes on every opportunity he's granted, the Spurs will get all the more dangerous. Though he didn't play during the defending champion's season opener against the Dallas Mavericks, even with Leonard out of the lineup, he'll eventually work his way into the rotation and become that insurance policy.
Bojan Bogdanovic
2 of 8
Team: Brooklyn Nets
Age: 25
Position: SG/SF
Preseason Per-Game Stats: 7.0 points, 2.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.5 blocks, 6.1 PER
Bojan Bogdanovic has practiced with the Brooklyn Nets starters throughout the latter portion of the offseason, and he's emerged as the likely long-term starter at the 2.
"With coach Lionel Hollins indicating that he has no desire to tinker with the game-opening unit he's been using this preseason (once Brook Lopez returns from his sprained right foot), Bogdanovic appears entrenched in the backcourt opposite Deron Williams," reports Roderick Boone for Newsday.com.
Bogdanovic has struggled adjusting to the NBA at times, especially with regard to his shooting effectiveness. Throughout the preseason, he had trouble finding the bottom of the net, knocking down only 35 percent of his shots from the field and 22.7 percent of his looks from beyond the three-point arc. That shot will come around, and it needs to if the Nets are going to sneak their way into the postseason.
Though the Eastern Conference isn't particularly strong, there's still a group of four teams competing for the last two playoff spots: the Nets, New York Knicks, Detroit Pistons and Miami Heat. If Brooklyn is going to advance into the postseason and make writers like me eat their words, it will need consistent production from just about everyone in the lineup.
Bogdanovic counts.
Grantland's Zach Lowe also had those four teams in the same type of tier, but he claimed the Nets were most likely to elevate into the category just above, writing, "Brooklyn has decent depth, and the super-Yugo duo of Bojan Bogdanovic and Mirza Teletovic offers stretchy shooting and Kidd-era positional funkiness."
Health pending, the Nets are already strong playoff contenders. An All-Rookie-caliber season from Bogdanovic could turn them into locks.
Cleanthony Early
3 of 8
Team: New York Knicks
Age: 23
Position: SF
Preseason Per-Game Stats: 3.7 points, 1.1 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.6 steals, 0.0 blocks, 4.1 PER
Cleanthony Early has struggled to make much of an impact with the New York Knicks during the early portion of his professional career, but that doesn't mean he has to remain mired in mediocrity for too much longer. Though he was a second-round pick in the star-studded 2014 NBA draft class, he has plenty of upside, and the 'Bockers are fully aware of that.
Here's what Phil Jackson had to say about him when he gave a brief scouting report of every Knicks player to Charley Rosen for ESPN.com:
"Cleanthony Early is a rookie who has a lot to learn, but he's very athletic and is physically mature. Still, because he doesn't have a really big body, he's sure to get posted. On the plus side, he's very aggressive on defense and knows how to play the passing lanes. At the other end, he's good in the open court and has legitimate 3-point range, but his shot is a little flat. Like most rookies, he'll be a work in progress for a while.
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But the Knicks need a lot of help, especially as they attempt to learn the difficult triangle offense. If Early picks it up, well, early, he'll get into the rotation much sooner, giving New York a standout defensive presence who can also help space out the court.
The Knicks don't project as a playoff team, but that can change, hence Early's importance during his rookie season. Chances are that he doesn't register much production during his initial foray into professional basketball, but he's one of those players on a semi-rebuilding roster who can tap into his upside sooner than expected.
James Ennis
4 of 8
Team: Miami Heat
Age: 24
Position: SF
Preseason Per-Game Stats: 10.9 points, 3.7 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.0 blocks, 21.1 PER
One of the biggest breakout players from the 2014 preseason, James Ennis is now set to provide the Miami Heat bench with exactly the type of production that it's been looking for: athleticism and scoring talent coming from a slasher off the pine.
A second-round draft pick in 2013, the 24-year-old thrived overseas with both the BSN's Piratas de Quebradillas and the NBL's Perth Wildcats before coming back across the pond, and he hasn't wasted any time breaking into Erik Spoelstra's rotation. In addition to splashing in jumpers from beyond the arc and getting to the rim with ease, Ennis made strides as a distributor and all-around player, which makes him all the more valuable to the Miami cause.
"We needed an injection of young talent," Chris Bosh told Shandel Richardson of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. "I think with James we've found a diamond in the rough. His athletic ability, his shooting and his playmaking ability are second to none. He has a tremendous upside. He's going to help us a lot as long as he continues to develop."
If Ennis truly is a diamond in the rough, he'll help shore up what figures to be a rather lackluster bench. Players like Danny Granger and Shannon Brown could rebound from injury-related declines, but the second unit is filled with castoffs, unproven young contributors and potentially washed-up question marks. Given the fragile nature of some members of the starting five, the Heat will flounder if they can't count on the reserves to do some of the lifting during the rigors of an 82-game season.
Even one big breakout from a player like Ennis—a breakout in the sense that he goes from second-round pick who played overseas to an All-Rookie-caliber player in less than a calendar year—will do wonders in the quest for one of the Eastern Conference's eight coveted playoff berths.
Doug McDermott
5 of 8
Team: Chicago Bulls
Age: 22
Position: SF
Preseason Per-Game Stats: 8.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.1 blocks, 10.7 PER
It takes a rare talent to make Tom Thibodeau play a rookie in his rotation.
Since he took over for the Chicago Bulls before the 2010-11 season, five different first-year players have found themselves under his tutelage: Tony Snell (16 minutes per game), Omer Asik (12.1), Jimmy Butler (8.5), Marquis Teague (8.2) and Erik Murphy (2.6). But this season, two fresh faces should rise right to the top of that list, and Doug McDermott is one of them.
A seasoned scorer, thanks to his lengthy time as a No. 1 option for Creighton, McDermott gives the Bulls offense a dynamic that it hasn't possessed for years. He's a creative scorer whose gravitational field draws defenders away from everyone else, and he has the potential to help turn Chicago from a defense-first team into a more balanced unit.
McDermott thrived during his summer-league outings with the Bulls, and while he struggled to make a similar impact during the preseason, there's still no doubt about his level of talent. Plus, the Bulls are a perfect fit for him, as they can compensate for his woeful defensive abilities with the wealth of stellar point-preventing players surrounding him.
"I'd go on record and say I feel like at the end of the day, if somehow Doug McDermott can be a starter, I think he's going to get better shots with that starting unit being out there with Pau Gasol and with Derrick Rose," Doug Collins, a former Bulls head coach and current ESPN analyst, explained, via K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune. "And it's not going to depend so much on Jimmy Butler having to make as many shots."
Regardless of whether he starts or comes off the bench, McDermott's scoring is going to help ease the pressure on an aging Pau Gasol and Derrick Rose, who looked great in the preseason but still shouldn't be relied on quite yet as a sole source of offensive production. The Bulls will be an elite Eastern Conference team no matter what (or so it seems), but this small forward's importance centers around his ability to help push them over the top and firmly into the realm of championship favorites.
Nikola Mirotic
6 of 8
Team: Chicago Bulls
Age: 23
Position: PF
Preseason Per-Game Stats: 6.0 points, 2.3 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 1.5 steals, 0.8 blocks, 11.2 PER
Let's stay in the Windy City a little while longer.
Nikola Mirotic isn't quite as important to the Chicago Bulls as Doug McDermott is, simply because the roster is jam-packed with productive big men. Between Joakim Noah, Pau Gasol and Taj Gibson—and Nazr Mohammed, to a lesser extent—the team doesn't technically need any extra production from the biggest positions on the court, but Mirotic can be a great insurance policy, especially with Noah's balky knee potentially becoming problematic during a long season.
Additionally, he's a creative presence—one who can take part in plenty of interesting groupings. At some point, Tom Thibodeau will use a lineup that centers on McDermott, Mirotic and Gasol, and the result will be some incredibly crafty scoring play that stupefies defenses for a brief period.
But thus far, the Montenegrin forward doesn't know how he'll be used, per Basketball Insiders' Joel Brigham:
"I don't know right now what’s going to be my role. This is the preseason and I have my minutes now, but I know that’s going to change when the season starts. The most important thing is to continue to work hard every day, and I think Coach knows what the best thing for the team is. If that's me playing 10 minutes then every minute I'm given to be on the court I will try to do my best and I think that is the only thing I can do. This is my first year, so I have patience. I know that I'm ready, and I know I can help the team, so we will see what happens when the season starts.
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And as he notes, Mirotic isn't a typical rookie for Thibodeau to use.
"He's not known for giving rookies a ton of burn, but at 23 years old, Mirotic isn’t a typical rookie," Brigham explains. "He also isn't some guy the team got a hold of a couple of months ago; they've had his rights for years and have spent the last few seasons gearing up for his arrival."
Mirotic will probably be the least important of these eight featured first-year players, if only because his playing time will be fairly limited and come at a position of strength for a team that should already be elite without any contributions from him. Nonetheless, his versatility and offensive creativity could help turn the Bulls from Eastern Conference contenders to favorites if he produces from the early part of the season.
Shabazz Napier
7 of 8
Team: Miami Heat
Age: 23
Position: PG
Preseason Per-Game Stats: 10.3 points, 2.6 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.0 blocks, 19.1 PER
Shabazz Napier may not be the best rookie in the 2014 class or figure to feature prominently in the Rookie of the Year race—one that will likely be dominated by a high-impact player on a bad team like Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker or Nerlens Noel.
But he's the most important first-year player in the league.
The Miami Heat will have trouble living up to any expectations that have them as something more than contenders for one of the final spots in the Eastern Conference, and one of the primary reasons is the complete lack of quality production from the point guards. Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole are the incumbents, and neither one can help replace the playmaking skills that were lost when LeBron James left South Beach for Northeast Ohio.
Cole is set to start for the defending Eastern champions, and that's not exactly a positive. Both he and Chalmers should be situational players, not leaders on a competitive team. They're average floor generals, and that may be more than generous on some nights.
Napier can be better, and he's quickly improved throughout his brief time as a professional.
"When he's on the court, good things happen so far. He makes plays for other guys, and he brings a good energy and a good leader," Dwyane Wade recently told Ira Winderman of the South Florida Sun Sentinel. "No one knows what everything is going to shake out to be, but the kid can play, and the kid can lead. So when you've got a guy who can do that, you've got to find some time for him somewhere."
Though Napier won't begin the season as anything more than a third-string point guard, it would verge on shocking if he didn't start at least one contest during his first season in Miami. I fully expect him to take over the job by the All-Star break, and some quality production at the 1 would do wonders in the Heat's postseason quest.
T.J. Warren
8 of 8
Team: Phoenix Suns
Age: 21
Position: SF/PF
Preseason Per-Game Stats: 5.0 points, 2.4 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.4 steals, 0.2 blocks, 19.1 PER
It's a shame that T.J. Warren's rookie season had to be thrown off the tracks by a fractured thumb. The injury he suffered during a solid opening to his preseason will likely keep him out for a significant portion of the 2014-15 campaign. He's out indefinitely, and the missed time will put him behind the eight ball, as he won't have as many chances to establish chemistry and continuity with his new teammates in the desert.
Nonetheless, Warren will have quite a bit of importance to the Phoenix Suns' playoff push as soon as he returns. While the backcourt is loaded with talent, the 21-year-old doesn't have so much competition at the forward spots. Marcus Morris and P.J. Tucker are ahead of him at the 3, but he should soon push past Shavlik Randolph and possibly Anthony Tolliver at the 4, especially when the Suns inevitably decide to go small.
Most of the scoring punch for this playoff hopeful comes from the guards, and Warren's undeniable knack for finding the bottom of the net should aid the cause rather significantly during his first professional season. He may not have too many standout skills, but he's a creative and natural scorer who can light up the scoreboard in a variety of ways, so long as he's given an opportunity to do so.
Before the 2014 draft, DraftExpress.com's Matt Kamalsky highlighted just how unique Warren's scoring ability is:
"As much as Warren's proclivity towards catch and finish opportunities around the rim makes him unique, his shot distribution is what really stands out on paper. The talented forward made a below average 32.2% of his jump shots, but finished at a group-leading 70% clip around the rim, despite lacking elite athleticism.
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Warren's finishing ability is the byproduct of his truly outstanding instincts and touch on short range shots. Those two things are also reflected in his knack for scoring with his floater. Scoring more points than any player in the country on runners shooting an impressive 49%, Warren makes up for his lack of jump shooting ability by making short range shots at an elite-level. Warren will be one of the truly interesting cases to keep track of in this class, as it's been some times since we've seen a small forward with his unique offensive skill set.
The Suns have plenty of scorers who thrive when spotting up or driving with the ball in their hands, but Warren brings a completely new element to the offense.
In the tough Western Conference, the playoff hopefuls need all the help they can get. Any unique advantage is crucial, and that's exactly what the North Carolina State product can provide as soon as he's healthy.
Note: All stats, unless otherwise indicated, come from RealGM.com.
