New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

New Orleans is coming off a much-needed victory over Green Bay but now finds itself back on the road visiting an NFC South divisional foe. And the Saints haven't had much financial success in that role as of late, going 7-19 against the spread in their last 26 games as road favorites. New Orleans will be a short road favorite when it takes on Carolina in Charlotte Thursday night.

Point spread: Panthers opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 48 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.6-19.3 Saints

Why the Saints can cover the spread

The Saints finally looked like the team many expected to win the NFC South this season with their 44-23 victory over Green Bay Sunday night. New Orleans broke open what was a tie game at the half with three straight scores on its way to an easy cover as a two-point favorite.

The Saints, helped along by 172 yards from running back Mark Ingram, outrushed the Packers 193-89, while quarterback Drew Brees threw five incompletions in 32 attempts with three touchdown passes. So while the team is just 3-4 both straight up and ATS, New Orleans is essentially tied for first place in the NFC South.

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

The Panthers are coming off a tough 13-9 home loss to Seattle but are a cover as six-point home dogs. Carolina led that game 9-6 late but gave up a Russell Wilson touchdown pass with less than a minute to go. After having great trouble running the ball earlier this season, the Panthers came up with their third straight 100-yard rushing effort last week, as Jonathan Stewart had his best game in recent memory (79 yards on 16 carries).

And a maligned Carolina defense held the Seahawks to 318 total yards. Finally, the Panthers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 home games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven divisional home games.

Smart pick

Throw out the records and the stats for this one. New Orleans has been the better team over recent seasons, but Carolina has taken three of the last four meetings. The Saints might suffer a letdown after the big home win over Green Bay, and they're a different team playing away from the friendly confines of the Superdome.

Meanwhile, Carolina has to believe its running game and defense are improving. So the smart choice here is with the home-standing Panthers.

Betting Trends

• New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last six games when playing on the road against Carolina.
• Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last six games when playing at home against New Orleans.

All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.