Grading Houston Rockets' Final 13-Man Roster
Grading the Houston Rockets’ final 13-man roster is a twofold trick. First it requires figuring out what that roster is going to be, then it requires determining how well each member is going to play. We’ve got the answers for both of those considerations here.
Rockets general manager Daryl Morey is a wheeler and dealer. He’s the guy in your fantasy football league who offers you Adrian Peterson and Robert Griffin III for DeMarco Murray and tells you with aplomb, “It’s a great deal!”
He’s the guy who picks up someone off waivers, then changes his mind two hours later, in real life!
Point being: This is the roster Houston will start the season with, but it may not be the one it finishes with. Since any potential moves are entirely speculative, grades were assigned based on what will happen if this depth chart remains intact.
Using preseason performances, contract statuses and career trajectories as a guide, we’ll pare down the roster and then grade the projected performance of each player accordingly.
The grades take into account three things: projected performance, expectations and estimated playing time. They are assigned based on how well the player is expected to perform in balance with his place in the rotation.
They are listed here in order of their grades.
Jason Terry: Incomplete
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Last year, he played just 570 minutes, as a knee injury kept him out most of the season.
Prior to that, Terry was as reliable as anyone, chalking 2,000 minutes every year since 2000-01. However, last season is more likely the new norm than an anomaly. Age does that to you.
When training camp started this year, he pulled a hamstring 20 minutes into his first practice and sat most of the preseason. He played in only three games, totaling 44.2 total minutes and scoring a mere nine points.
There were times in those contests when he used his “wily veteranness” to his advantage, but he clearly isn't the player he used to be.
At his best, Terry relied on his speed and quickness, and those aren't things that survive into your late 30s. I expect him to be in and out of the lineup all season, and he’ll underperform when he’s there. He won’t log enough playing time this year to merit a grade. He gets an incomplete.
Joey Dorsey: D
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There are all kinds of cautionary flags for Joey Dorsey, not the least of which is he hasn't played in the NBA for a couple of years. His last regular-season game was on April 13, 2011. His career averages are 2.62 points and 3.84 rebounds in 10.4 minutes.
His preseason numbers are worse: 2.2 points and 4.0 rebounds in 11.8 minutes. But being fair, that’s partly the result of rust due to his prolonged absence from the Association. So there’s a chance he can get better.
It is possible that he’s improved. He had his moments as he was touring Europe and even won an award for Best Defender while playing in Greece during 2011-12.
But in his first NBA stint, and in his brief time since his return, he hasn’t established himself as an NBA-caliber player.
There’s a "D" in Dorsey for a reason, and it’s not the basketball kind. Dorsey will earn a D for his play this season, and that’s if he sticks around until the season ends.
Donatas Motiejunas: C-
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Donatas Motiejunas' preseason games typify what his third NBA season will be like. He’s had performances all over the place.
In his first game, Motiejunas dropped 18 points on 11 shots. In his second-to-last game, he had zero points on the same number of attempts.
And it’s not just the numbers. It’s the play. He just doesn’t have the type of aggressiveness you want to see from a guy vying for a job. In fact, his preseason averages of 7.62 points and 43.1 percent shooting are down from last year’s numbers.
With many players who are inconsistent, a lack of confidence is the issue, but with Motiejunas, it might be the opposite. It seems like he doesn’t doubt himself in the face of failure, so he doesn’t learn to dig deeper. He needs that sense of desperation born from humility.
This is his third year, and if he doesn’t show some improvement, it will be his last.
Francisco Garcia: C-
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Last season, Francisco Garcia averaged just 5.7 points in 19.7 minutes per game. This year, he’ll get even less playing time, but that doesn’t mean he won’t have a significant impact on the success of the team.
He’ll be collecting his paycheck for his mentoring skills. The Rockets are chock-full of young players, and Garcia is the off-court leader on the team. His role is going to be helping the kids find their place in the NBA.
When I asked Troy Daniels which players had helped him, he specially named Garcia as the one who was there with him “every minute from day one.” That kind of shepherding for the youngsters is vital on a squad so full of them.
Garcia won’t matter on the court, but he gets a passing grade for what he’ll do behind the scenes.
Kostas Papanikolaou: C+
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Kostas Papanikolaou has worked his way into the backup small forward spot. He has a creative spark, which combined with his left-hand dominance, allows him to score in unconventional ways defenders aren’t ready for.
This preseason, while he showed a flair for the spectacular, he also did it with a lack of efficiency. His true shooting percentage was a paltry .433. He's gotten himself into foul trouble when he’s had extend playing time, too. These things are expected from someone learning the NBA game.
Rookies tend to make rookie mistakes. He’s a three-year professional, but he’s in his first year in the NBA. He’s going to take some time to adapt. However, many of the things college kids have to adapt to, such as the heavy travel and busier schedule, he’s already familiar with. So he should learn faster.
In the aggregate, he'll earn a C+.
Terrence Jones: C+
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Terrence Jones is a blossoming offensive talent, but his defense and interior presence lag behind.
Speaking of Jones’ offensive output, Stephen Babb of Bleacher Report says:
"His 19.14 player efficiency rating ranked 15th among those 79 power forwards and added an estimated 7.9 wins on the season (beyond what a "replacement player" would have contributed)—which ranked 14th among 4s.
Those numbers actually ranked ahead of more heralded forwards like David West and Markieff Morris. Had Jones seen more opportunities with the ball in his hands, there's really no telling what kind of season he might have had.
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However, per ESPN.com, Jones' defensive plus-minus ranked just 79th out of 86 power forwards.
Jones’ season will depend on how much he can improve where it’s less glamorous. If he can evolve into a two-way player, he’ll be a really nice piece for the Rockets going forward.
That process is going to be a lot of taking two steps forward and one step back, though. Rockets fans need to keep in mind the end product with him.
He has a good face-up game, and he’s developing the corner three. Those tools will eventually make him the perfect complement to Howard.
Patrick Beverley: B
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Patrick Beverley is unique among the Rockets’ starting five. He’s the one who is stellar on defense but lags behind on offense. With Houston struggling to facilitate outside of James Harden, he’ll need to develop in that regard.
Beverley was All-Defensive Second Team last year, but offensively, he’s more challenged than you’d like to see, especially in terms of creating. He is a respectable shooter, making 36.1 percent of his three-point attempts last year, but 94 of his 99 treys were assisted.
And he averaged just 2.7 dimes last year. In fact, between his passing and scoring, he only generated a combined 9.5 points per game.
And that’s the biggest flaw Beverley’s has: He’s a point guard who doesn’t create shots for himself or his teammates.
He has a great attitude. He's mean and nasty. He talks trash and backs it up. He’s the guy you love if he’s on your team and hate if he’s not. He gets everyone worked. He’s a defensive pest. There is a lot to like about him.
But if he doesn’t develop the ability to generate offense, he might end up sitting more than he wants. Or there could be a trade for a new point guard before the season ends.
Troy Daniels: B
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Troy Daniels is as pure a shooter as they come. There is absolutely nothing about that man’s shot that isn’t perfect. When he receives the pass, he almost instantly sets his feet. He has a consistent release point and a great arc on his shot, and he always follows through.
He has that kind of motion that makes you think of Ray Allen.
He’s also shown an improvement on defense. He has great energy, tends to stay in front of his man and disrupts passing lanes without excessive gambling.
He’s a sixth man waiting to storm the league.
There are two questions about him, though. The first is whether he can consistently create his own shot off the bounce.
He’s shown he’s good at putting the ball on the floor for one or two dribbles and then pulling up. Perhaps that’s enough, but it would be good to see him attack the rim and finish more. If he can do that, he’ll be almost impossible to defend.
The other question is who is going to be passing him the ball so he can bury that beautiful three? If Isaiah Canaan can develop into a consistent facilitator, the Rockets' backup backcourt should be not only effective, they should be downright entertaining.
Tarik Black: B
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Tarik Black has overcome the odds just to get to the final cut. An undrafted rookie on a non-guaranteed contract coming into training camp, he has no business even being in consideration.
Yet when Dwight Howard missed the last two preseason games, Black was not only still around, he was starting in the superstar’s absence.
Jonathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle quotes Black:
"“I’m just going out there trying to play the best mindset I can play because I love playing the game,” said Black, who averaged 6.2 points and 6.8 rebounds in an average of 17 minutes per game in the preseason. “I’m blessed to be at this level. That’s the only mindset I take. I don’t think about if I’m competing to come off the bench after Dwight. That’s too much pressure."
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If Black can hang on to the team, which it looks increasingly like he will, he will have already overcome expectations. And with plenty of room to grow, he could develop into the solid backup 5 the Rockets need behind Howard.
The possibility remains, though, that Black doesn’t make the team, but goes to Rio Grande instead. Even if that happens, don't be surprised to see Black get called back up before the season is over.
Isaiah Canaan: B
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Isaiah Canaan had the best preseason of anyone in Houston, for whatever that’s worth. He posted a 32.73 PER, a .638 true shooting percentage and averages of 10.43 points, 1.86 rebounds and 1.86 assists in 13.4 minutes per game.
Those are legitimately good numbers, but they didn’t come against the best competition. Canaan spent most of his time playing against other reserves, which in the preseason can mean a lot of guys that won’t end up on NBA rosters.
No one is going to argue that he’s going to carry those numbers into the regular season. But it does mean he’s improved his level of play.
The Rockets will need him to lead the offense off the bench, so that improvement is a welcome sight. The one criticism of him is he’s not a proven passer.
As the season progresses, look for Canaan to improve his passing and involve more teammates. He’ll turn into a capable backup point guard, but his shoot-first mentality will be a frustration when his shot isn’t falling.
James Harden: B+
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James Harden’s season is going to be defined, fairly or unfairly, by his defense. Once someone gets a reputation as lazy, it doesn’t even matter if it’s true or not. Reputation can trump reality.
On offense, Harden will have his most prodigious scoring year, topping 27 points per game and competing for the scoring title while leading the Rockets in assists. He should get credit for that, but if someone makes another viral video made of his defense, he won’t.
So this is where Harden needs to bear down. He knows it, too, as he told USA Today’s Sam Amick:
"It's not a matter of whether I can or can't play defense. It's just a matter of me focusing for 48 minutes throughout a game and making sure that I'm always alert on both ends of the floor … It's up to me to go out there and show my leadership, to show that I can play both ends of the floor at a high level and just do it. If I have that approach, we're going to go a long ways.
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If he can stay focused on defense, he should elevate himself to average. When he’s aware, he’s a decent defender. But the concern is that habits take time to develop. It’s really not so much a question of whether he tries, but rather how often he tries.
Guarding his own end of the court, he’ll have good games and bad games, and the average of those will be worthy of a C. His offense, though, will merit an A. The combination of those two grades will earn him a B+.
Dwight Howard: A-
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Dwight Howard will reclaim his status as the indisputable best center in the league this year. He’ll have his most successful season since he played in Orlando. He will average better than 20 points and 12 rebounds.
So why am I only giving him an A-? Because I’m not grading him down, I’m grading him up.
This year is the year I think Howard grows into a leader. Howard told Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports:
"It's something that I've been thinking about all summer: Playing at that level every single night. Not just waiting for the playoffs. This is my 11th year. There's a thought, 'The regular season is great, but when it's time for playoffs, this is when it gets real serious.' I want it to be where it's serious from Game 1 to end of season, and then take it to another level in the playoffs. That's something that me and Hakeem have talked about.
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The word “serious” is not something we’re used to associating with Howard. And this isn't to say that all “leaders” need to be Kobe Bryant, where they're so serious they forget how to tell a joke.
But it’s good to see Howard use that word. It means he’s growing.
So this isn't really about why is he only getting an A-. It’s why he’s not getting a B+. His maturity is what has been lacking, and it’s a positive that it’s starting to come.
Trevor Ariza: A
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Trevor Ariza will be a much bigger difference-maker for the Rockets than expected. He’s a legitimate three-point threat, one of the better wing defenders in the league and a veteran with championship experience.
While this isn't his first stint with the Rockets, he's a better, more mature player than he was his first time around. His win shares per 48 minutes went from .058 in his first tour to .141 last year in Washington. This version is better at shooting, rebounding and defending than the prior one.
He was inked to replace Chandler Parsons after the Rockets failed to match the max offer the Dallas Mavericks gave Parsons.
Ariza won’t be the offensive force that Parsons was, particularly when it comes to handling the rock and creating shots for others, but he’ll be a plus difference in every other facet of the game.
Look for him to fill the glue role on both ends of the court, and on a team with so many superstars and kids on it, that role just can’t be overstated. He’s in the mold of Shane Battier in his prime. Ariza will quickly become a fan favorite.
The box scores might not show it, but no one on the Rockets will exceed expectations more than Ariza.
All stats for this article came from RealGM.com or Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise stated.
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