Bowl Predictions 2014: Updated Projections Before Saturday's Week 9 Games
If you thought the stretch run of BCS seasons were exciting in college football, wait until the final month of the 2014 campaign.
Teams and conferences are vying for superiority with four spots on the line instead of two, and historical underdogs like Ole Miss and Mississippi State are trying to upend the bluebloods like Florida State and Alabama.
With that in mind, here is a look at some updated playoff projections before a full slate of Week 9 games on tap for Saturday.
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Playoff Projections
Sugar Bowl: Florida State vs. Ole Miss
Rose Bowl: Michigan State vs. Alabama
Championship Bowl (in Arlington, Texas): TBD (Semifinal winners)
Breakdown
You can argue the offensive pass interference call against Notre Dame until you are blue in the face, but it doesn't change the fact that Florida State got the win in a nail-biter against the Fighting Irish.
With close calls against Clemson, Notre Dame, Oklahoma State and, to a lesser extent, North Carolina State in the rearview mirror, none of the top teams have a clearer path to an undefeated season than the Seminoles. College GameDay reiterated as much:
Florida State’s remaining regular-season games are against Virginia, Miami, Boston College and Florida.
On paper, none of those teams are remotely talented enough to compete with defending Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston and the rest of the Seminoles. The reigning national champs are going undefeated, and that will be more than enough to clinch a spot in the College Football Playoff.
It may also be time for the rest of the country to come to grips with the reality that two SEC teams are getting in.
The SEC champion will certainly be one of the four, especially if that team comes from the loaded SEC West. The thought here is that Ole Miss earns that designation because it already has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Alabama in its back pocket and gets Auburn and Mississippi State at home.
The Tigers have to go to Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama, which is an absolutely daunting road schedule to say the least, and Mississippi State has to go to Alabama and Ole Miss.
While the Rebels will benefit from the home schedule, so will the Crimson Tide. As mentioned, they get the Tigers and Bulldogs at home, and an 11-1 finish for a national power like Alabama that has as much equity built up as any program in the country will get Nick Saban’s team into the College Football Playoff.
Saban suggested that his team still had a chance after the Ole Miss loss, via Andrew Gribble of Al.com, "Every goal that we have as a team is still in front of us. We must improve and respond the right way to losing."
That leaves the fourth spot, which is truly the one that is wide-open.
A number of one-loss teams are still remaining, and any of them could play their way there.
The thought here is that the Pac-12 cannibalizes itself, especially in the South division. Arizona State, Arizona, Utah, USC and UCLA will all get each other to at least two losses each (the Bruins and Trojans are already there), and the North division winner will also have to deal with the South champ.
The Big 12 is also in the race, with TCU, Baylor and Kansas State all with one loss. However, the Horned Frogs still go to West Virginia and play Kansas State; Kansas State plays Oklahoma State, TCU, Baylor and West Virginia; and Baylor has Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Kansas State.
Much like the Pac-12, these Big 12 teams will all beat each other up, and each will end with at least two losses. What’s more, no Big 12 championship game could come into play if a number of teams are contending for one spot and a positive national perception.
That leaves Notre Dame and the Big Ten.
The Fighting Irish will figure out how tough the Pac-12 South is this year with trips to Arizona State and USC down the stretch. One of those games will end in a loss.
As for the Big Ten, Ohio State and Michigan State are the only two teams with realistic playoff hopes. The eventual conference title and a potential postseason spot will be on the line when they face off in East Lansing.
While the Buckeyes look like a completely different team than they did in September as the young stars develop into legitimate weapons, Michigan State will win at home under the lights. The Spartans defense will pose a problem for J.T. Barrett and company, and the home-field advantage will prove to be the difference in a tightly contested battle.
With a single loss at Oregon on the season, Michigan State will claim that final College Football Playoff spot.
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