USC vs. Washington State Complete Game Preview

WHEN: Saturday, Nov. 1; 4:30 p.m. ET

WHERE: Martin Stadium; Pullman, Washington

TV: Pac-12 Networks

Coming off a loss at Utah that puts it behind the eight ball in the Pac-12 South race, USC pays its first visit to Washington State since 2010.

USC hasn't lost on the Palouse since the 2002 in which the Trojans shared the conference championship with the Cougars. Likewise, first-year USC head coach Steve Sarkisian went 2-0 at Washington in his two Apple Cup rivalry matchups with Washington State head coach Mike Leach.

Past results have no impact on current matchups, of course. Besides, the most recent development in the 71-game USC-Washington State series was last year’s 10-7 Cougars’ win in the Coliseum.

Both last year’s result, as well as the Trojans’ loss last week at Utah, should serve as motivation when they invade Martin Stadium.

USC needs this win to avoid total elimination from the Pac-12 South championship picture. The Trojans have zero margin for error after suffering their second conference loss.

“I firmly believe we have a good football team,” Sarkisian said on his weekly conference call Sunday. “I know our guys are going to get up off the mat. They’re going to prepare hard and go out and play well this Saturday against Washington State.”

Keys to Victory for USC

Rick Bowmer/Associated Press

Ground Connor Halliday

Washington State head coach Mike Leach is among the founding fathers of the air-raid spread offense. With two decades of fine-tuning the pass-happy attack, Leach has it down.

Connor Halliday is among the more gifted quarterbacks Leach has had running his system, and the senior’s acumen has made him the nation’s leader in passing yards, passing touchdowns and attempts.

Halliday will get his yards, but it’s vital for the USC defense to limit him to short gains. Cornerbacks cannot get beat deep, and the safeties absolutely must not allow any receivers to leak out beyond the last line of coverage.

In lieu of a run game, Leach prefers to attack on the perimeter with a series of screen and swing passes. Open-field tackling plays a central role in limiting Washington State’s gain on these plays.

If these passes can be shut down at the line of scrimmage, it limits Halliday’s effectiveness on third downs.

Score, score and then score some more

USC safety and "Sam" linebacker Su’a Cravens said after last week’s loss that the Trojans were still learning to finish, via USCFootball.com's Keely Eure.

"

"I've been saying it for a couple weeks now, we need to know how to finish." - Su'a Cravens #USC

— Keely Eure (@keelyismyname) October 26, 2014"

In each of their two Pac-12 losses, the Trojans have seen fourth-quarter leads erased. Now, Utah rallied on the final drive of a low-scoring, back-and-forth affair. But Arizona State used a 21-point deluge in the final five minutes to rally, employing an uptempo style rife with explosive pass plays.

Washington State’s air-raid is similarly equipped to provide points in droves. Just a few Halliday passes can shorten any deficit in a hurry, thus the onus is on the USC offense to make the most of every offensive opportunity. 

The Trojans cannot afford another lull similar to the 45-minute offensive scoring drought they endured at Utah. 

Keys to Victory for Washington State

Dean Hare/Associated Press

Stay in striking distance

Washington State can exploit USC’s tendency of allowing teams to rally in fourth quarters, but only if the Cougars trail by a reasonable margin. They were completely deflated last week against Arizona, trailing 52-16 heading into the fourth quarter.

Contrast that with Washington State’s sole Pac-12 win. The Cougars fell behind 21-0 at Utah, but never let the Utes’ lead balloon beyond that.

Avoid losing the field-position battle

With seven opponent returns of 30 yards or more, Washington State has one of the worst kickoff coverage teams in college football. The Cougars also rank near the bottom of the Football Bowl Subdivision in opponent punt return yardage.

Those are both dubious trends with USC coming to town. The Trojans have two of the Pac-12’s most electrifying returners in Nelson Agholor and Adoree’ Jackson.

Sarkisian said Jackson’s 100-yard return for a touchdown was one of the key positives USC took from the Utah game and had been a point of emphasis for the team heading into the week.

Conversely, Washington State gave up a return to the house to Arizona’s Cayleb Jones. It was the second return of 90-or-more yards the Cougars allowed this season.

The threat of giving up a touchdown is real for Washington State, but as much at play is the short fields its defense would be left facing after long returns that don’t go to the house.

Sarkisian credited Utah’s ability to pin the Trojans deep in their own territory as one key to last week’s outcome. Washington State must contain USC on special teams to make the Trojans offense’s job more difficult.

USC Players to Watch

Gus Ruelas/Associated Press

OFFENSE

WR Nelson Agholor

USC's leading receiver was putting together a monster fourth quarter at Utah, though his night will likely be remembered for stepping out of bounds just shy of the first-down marker on 4th-and-2.

No matter—Agholor has a prime opportunity to keep the positive momentum he had going late at Utah when going up against a Washington State defense ranked No. 113 against the pass.

The Cougars secondary has struggled adjusting without 2013 stars Damante Horton and All-American selection Deone Bucannon. That was perhaps never more evident than last week, when Arizona quarterback Anu Solomon abused the Cougars for five touchdowns and exposed mismatches on No. 1 receiver Jones.  

In much the same way that Arizona’s Jones is the focal point of the passing attack, Agholor is USC quarterback Cody Kessler’s primary connection. The duo should be able to establish a rhythm early to get the Trojans offense moving on Washington State.

OL Aundrey Walker

Starting left tackle Chad Wheeler came out in the fourth quarter of last week’s loss to Utah with a torn ACL, presenting veteran Aundrey Walker with his opportunity to return to the first-string unit.

Walker was a starter in 2012 and 2013, but his slow recovery from a foot injury in the offseason delayed his reintegration into the lineup. Against the nation’s No. 1 sacking defense, and often faced one-on-one with Utes sack leader Nate Orchard, Walker stepped up.

“Aundrey did an admirable job stepping in against  a really good defensive line,” Sarkisian said. “I think he’ll continue to improve.”

DEFENSE

LB Scott Felix and Charles Burks

Along with Wheeler, USC lost linebacker J.R. Tavai at Utah. Tavai’s injury may not be as severe—Sarkisian said Tavai’s timetable for return is “a few weeks”—but in the interim, his replacements must fill the void.

Scott Felix tops the depth chart in Tavai’s typical place at "Rush." Felix has seen plenty of action in a reserve role this season, racking up 27 tackles and 4.5 tackles for loss.

With Felix taking on Tavai’s role as starter, Sarkisian said Charles Burks will see much of the responsibility Felix undertook as the second option.

“We’ll give [Burks] some opportunities to rush the passer, especially the next two weeks as we play some pass-oriented teams [Washington State and Cal],” Sarkisian said.

CB Kevon Seymour

Kevon Seymour played one of his better if not very best games at Utah. Matched up against No. 1 receiver Dres Anderson, Seymour made a few athletic plays to break up passes, including a leaping knockdown to save a potential score.

This week against the pass-happy Washington State air-raid attack, the entire USC secondary will get a workout. But Seymour’s performance in particular should help dictate where Halliday targets.

USC needs Seymour to contain Vince Mayle on deep routes, thus forcing Halliday to work the swing passes more.

Washington State Players to Watch

Dean Hare/Associated Press

OFFENSE

QB Connor Halliday

As Halliday goes, so goes Washington State. Leach puts a lot on his quarterback’s plate, but the senior is generally up to the challenge.

He’s thrown for a remarkable 3,833 yards on the season and 32 touchdowns, but perhaps the most impressive of his eye-popping statistics is a 67.3 completion percentage.

Halliday spreads the ball around the field effectively, connecting with seven different receivers at least 23 times. Three of Halliday’s targets have 59 receptions or more.

Of course, with as often as the playbook calls for Halliday to drop back, he’s also taken a number of sacks—19 to be exact. USC’s defensive front must apply consistent pressure on Halliday to force him into adding to his interception total, which currently sits at 10.

WR Vince Mayle

Halliday has a deep corps of receiver among which he spreads the ball, but no one is targeted as frequently as Mayle.

Mayle’s 71 receptions are 12 more than the Cougars’ next-most prolific pass-catchers, Isiah Myers and River Cracraft.

Cracraft suffered an injury last week against Arizona, and his status will be unknown until game time—Leach does not discuss injury updates. If the Cougars are without one of their top receivers, look for Mayle to get even more work than usual.  

DEFENSE

DT Xavier Cooper

Washington State has not been particularly adept at getting to opposing quarterbacks for sacks—the Cougars have just two on the season. However, big man Xavier Cooper does have three quarterback hurries.

He’s a capable run-stopper and a potential matchup problem for the interior of the USC offensive line.

USC center Max Tuerk has had a few noteworthy misfired exchanges with Kessler in recent weeks, one of which resulted in a sack at Utah. Keep an eye on Cooper this week. His presence on the interior should challenge Tuerk.

CB Daquawn Brown

Daquawn Brown is the most active of Washington State’s defensive backs, tallying 58 tackles and nine broken-up passes on the season. But last week against Arizona, Brown’s statistical output was of a more dubious nature, as he drew a few costly pass interference penalties.

"It’s gonna affect him big-time tomorrow when I get hold of him,” Leach said via Bud Withers of The Seattle Times. “He got frustrated. It doesn’t matter how close the game is, it’s going to affect him the same.”

Washington needs Brown to rebound this week. The sophomore is likely to match up with Agholor.

What They're Saying

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USC 

Sarkisian on USC remaining alive in the Pac-12 South: 

"I don’t feel like this conference race is over. There’s a lot of football to be played, but that starts Saturday against Washington State.

“We’ve got things we need to work on right now. But I don’t want them to lose sight of the ultimate goal, which is to win the Pac-12 South."

Cravens on shaking off a hard loss, via Bill Plaschke of the Los Angeles Times: 

"It kills morale to lose like this. But we’re a band of brothers, we’ll be back next week." 

Washington State

Mayle on the attitude when trailing big, via WSUCougars.com:  

"It will bring the team morale down, but we preach ‘play the next play.’ We really do not look at the scoreboard. We are playing the next play."

Leach on pressing early in games, via Jacob Thorpe of The Spokesman Review: 

"I think they want to play real well and be as precise and specific as possible and everything, and as a result just created a level of hesitation."

Prediction

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Last season’s Washington State win remains one of the more confounding Pac-12 games of recent memory—not so much because the Cougars scored a victory in the Coliseum, but rather the 10-7 final score.

Logic would dictate holding a Leach-coached offense without a touchdown would be enough for a win, but the Trojans’ offensive anemia defied logic.

USC has suffered through long bouts of offensive stagnation this season, but the difference between the current offense and the version that faced Washington State a season ago is night and day. Kessler is playing with far more confidence, running back Javorius “Buck” Allen went from obscurity to a starring role and the receiving corps is filled with playmakers.

The Trojans should have no trouble moving the ball and scoring points on a porous Cougars defense. The key will be doing so repeatedly without suffering the droughts that have been a nagging issue. Don’t expect that to occur this week.

Prediction: USC 45, Washington State 31

Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise cited. Statistics courtesy of CFBstats.com.