Why Vernon Davis Is No. 1 Key to San Francisco 49ers' Second-Half Success
Among the multitude of personnel issues plaguing the San Francisco 49ers, the one that’s been the least documented is actually the most significant.
The 49ers’ two-time Pro Bowl tight end has been anything but since Week 1.
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After upholding that award-winning recognition with a two-touchdown performance in a win over the Dallas Cowboys, Davis has fallen completely off the gridiron map.
In addition to missing two weeks due to injury, he has amassed just 10 catches for 98 yards in four games. That includes an eight-yard total against the Philadelphia Eagles and three drops over his last two contests.
He is now on pace for all of 32 catches for 325 yards and five touchdowns.
Further lowly marks include the fourth-fewest average yards after the catch (2.2), second-most drops (four) and third-worst overall score (minus-9.8) among the 61 tight ends graded by Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
Remember that Davis ranked No. 23 in 2011, No. 7 in 2012 and sixth overall last year.
Also known as a highly proficient run-blocker, Davis ranks in the bottom 15 in that category at his position.
He hasn’t earned anything lower than No. 8 for his play in the ground game since 2011.
So, while the Niners’ secondary, pass rush, running game and offensive line need serious work (see: Week 7 disaster versus the Denver Broncos), Davis plays a role in more than one area.
In fact, his presence, production and prowess—or lack thereof—affects San Francisco’s entire offense, not to mention the team as a whole.
Let’s now use Davis’ career-defining season last year as a barometer for what he must provide for the 49ers over the final nine weeks of 2014.
Deep Threat + Touchdown Producer
Davis was second to just one in the tight-end scoring department while being second to none as a deep threat in 2013.
Despite playing in one fewer game, his 13 touchdowns fell behind only Jimmy Graham’s 16 in the New Orleans Saints' pass-heavy offense.
Davis was a consistent end-zone producer as well.
He reached end-zone paydirt in every game but four, with two multi-touchdown contests erasing the scant few in which he didn’t score.
Moreover, even while ranking sixth with 850 yards among 64 tight ends, he managed that still-impressive total on the 14th most receptions.
His 16.3 yards per catch was unmatched among those accruing at least 400 snaps.
In other words, Davis was highly efficient.
Adding to that touchdown and per-catch proficiency were his leading totals in the deep passing game.
He sat unrivaled with 11 receptions for 409 yards and six scores. No other quarterback threw to his tight end more than Davis’ target percentage of 28.0 on passes of 20-plus yards.
As for 2014, Davis is nowhere near the requisite pace for those marks (notwithstanding the time he’s missed due to injury).
| 2013 | TE Rank | 2014 | TE Rank | |
| TD | 13 | 2nd | 2 | 15th |
| YPC | 16.3 | 1st | 10.1 | 38th |
| 20+ YD REC | 11 | 1st | 1 | 13th |
Luckily, Brandon Lloyd has been a revelation for Colin Kaepernick as a downfield target.
He ranks eighth with 207 yards, seventh with five catches, fifth with a catch rate of 45.5 percent and first overall with a target percentage of 52.4 among wideouts graded by PFF.
His 80-yard catch-and-run in Week 6, of course, was the sweetest possible cherry on top.
But Lloyd being the lone game-breaking weapon will make his role predictable and easily defended by opposing defenses moving forward.
For the 49ers to realize their maximum effectiveness, they’ll need a physically—and mentally—strong No. 85 in the fold.
As the saying goes, two heads—err, deep threats—are better than one.
Run-Blocker + Offensive Conduit
We’ve already documented Davis’ strength as a run-blocker in terms of advanced metrics.
Since Pro Football Focus came into existence seven years ago, only once did he earn a negative grade. And that was just his second professional campaign in 2007.
He steadily climbed from 23rd in 2008 to 21st in 2010 to eighth in 2012 to No. 5 overall last season.
But more so than the numerical significance, Davis has served as the primary constant next to the 49ers' most important offensive player.
Frank Gore.
Outside of his rookie season in 2005, Gore has had Davis as a member of his blocking contingent for every year of his career.
No other man sporting the Red and Gold has helped pave the way longer for No. 21 during that stretch.
And in 2013, no other position helped facilitate more yards for the franchise all-timer.
Gore racked up season highs of 57 carries for 245 yards when running on the strong side of the field.
He also scored two of his nine touchdowns behind his tight ends.
Sure, Vance McDonald deserves praise for his blocking contributions. But match his plus-2.4 grade alongside Davis’ plus-7.1 and McDonald’s work pales in comparison, all per PFF.
The point is that the 49ers excel on offense behind a formidable rushing attack. And said running game thrives with Gore and Davis on the field.
San Francisco is 16-1-1 when Gore notches at least 20 touches since the Jim Harbaugh era began in 2011.
That includes a perfect 5-0 last year.
Seeing that Davis came out with a high grade as a run-blocker during that span, his improvement in the trenches is an obvious need for the 49ers in 2014.
Offensive Game-Changer + Defensive Swagger = Winning X-Factor
Let’s recap a few things before concluding with our final argument.
Davis is the 49ers' most lethal deep threat when on the field—check.
Davis is the team’s foremost touchdown producer when healthy—check.
Davis has been the primary constant in the trenches for running back Frank Gore—check.
Oh, in addition to pushing the ball downfield, securing it in the end zone and helping it advance to the outside in the hands of No. 21, Davis helps San Francisco’s most important player do what he does best.
Kaepernick utilized play action at the fifth-highest rate in 2013. Only four quarterbacks passed off a run fake more often than the 28.1 percent of Kap’s total passing attempts.
| % PA | COMP % | TD | RATING | |
| 2013 | 28.1 | 61.3 | 11 | 116.4 |
| 2014 | 19.3 | 50.0 | 3 | 89.0 |
In those 119 attempts, Kaepernick notched a 61.3 completion percentage, 11 touchdowns, 8.6 yards per throw, a 116.4 passer rating and just one interception.
Compare those gaudy numbers to 57.2, 10, 7.3, 81.6 and seven, respectively, in his 297 attempts without play action.
So, by first helping develop a consistent ground attack as a blocker, Davis then facilitates play fakes for his quarterback, which he then, in turn, materializes on the receiving end of those misdirection-aided touchdowns.
We do hope you’re following.
As much as the 49ers are predicated offensively on successfully pounding the rock and converting on play action, they are also built on a stout overall defense.
When that defense knows its offensive brethren will pummel the opposition both on the ground and deep downfield, it acquires just that much more confidence.
Put simply, it operates with an added swagger knowing that such a dynamic and superior athlete is making that possible.
That asset, of course, is the chiseled 6’3", 250-pound Vernon Davis—the tight end who compiled unrivaled marks in the 40-yard dash, bench press and vertical and broad jump as the No. 6 overall draft pick in 2006, per ESPN Insider (subscription required).
When healthy, No. 85 remains the most physically gifted player on the field at any given time.
Now, Davis might have been present in material form during the Niners’ 42-17 shellacking in Denver last week.
Yet, with a creaky back and cloudy mind, he really wasn’t—and San Francisco suffered dearly as a result.
With upcoming matchups against the five-win San Diego Chargers, first-place Arizona Cardinals and two with the rival Seattle Seahawks, it’s imperative that he returns to form.
Fortunately, a recuperation-filled Week 8 bye and four subsequent games of suspect opposing defenses will mold Davis into shape for the last month of the season.
And when that happens, watch out NFL—the 49ers will have their winning X-factor back in action.
All team and player statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference, ESPN and NFL.com. Advanced metrics provided by Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
Joe Levitt is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report, waxing academic, colloquial and statistical eloquence on the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him on Twitter @jlevitt16
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