What the NY Knicks' 2014-15 Starting Lineup Should Actually Look Like
First-year New York Knicks coach Derek Fisher knows which question he needs to answer, but after six preseason games he has yet to find the solution.
With the complexities of the triangle offense and the puzzle-piece roster that never really fit during last season's 45-loss debacle, the coach has stressed the importance of stability in his opening lineup.
"I do believe in having consistency in your starting lineup," Fisher told reporters earlier this month. "... It's my belief that players respond better to consistency."
Six games and four starting lineups later, that consistency still eludes this team.
"We're still searching," Fisher told reporters about nailing down his rotation. He added that selecting a starting 4 is "definitely still a work in progress."
Ready or not, the regular season is coming quickly. The Knicks have less than a week to prepare for their season-opener on Oct. 29 and only Friday's tilt with the Toronto Raptors left on their exhibition schedule.
Fisher needs to find his five. Considering how much he has on his plate already, though, we went ahead and found them for him.
Point Guard: Jose Calderon
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Fisher knows firsthand what is expected from the point guard position in this offense: consistent shooting, heady ball control and not trying to do too much.
If there's a basketball dictionary floating around somewhere with Jose Calderon's name in it, those same traits would make up the crux of his definition.
The 33-year-old owns a 41.1 career three-point percentage, and he's been even more accurate with the shots he'll find in the triangle.
Last season, he converted 45.9 percent of his catch-and-shoot triples, per SportVU player tracking data, which ranked third among snipers who averaged at least four such shots per game. He was particularly lethal from the short corners, hitting 50.0 percent from the left side and 56.5 percent from the right.
He has also averaged only 8.2 field-goal attempts in 28.8 minutes for his career. He chooses his spots wisely, which both helps his efficiency and keeps his supporting cast involved at all times.
As for his ball control, it consistently grades out among the NBA's best. He had the fourth-highest assist-to-turnover ratio in the league last season (3.66), per ESPN.com, which was actually his lowest ranking since he finished in the same spot with a 3.52 as a sophomore in 2006-07.
It's almost tragic that it's taken this long to get Calderon into the triangle, because on paper the two go together like cereal and milk.
Shooting Guard: Iman Shumpert
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In three seasons with the Knicks, Iman Shumpert has made more than 77 percent of his appearances with the starting lineup.
The 24-year-old has also seemingly spent 100 percent of his tenure on the trade block. It's hard to tell if that's a reflection of how the franchise has viewed him or the fact that this roster has been so light on coveted prospects. Whatever the reason, the Knicks were reportedly shopping him as recently as this offseason, sources told ESPN New York's Ian Begley.
Given New York's depth at the 2—the natural position for Shumpert, J.R. Smith and Tim Hardaway Jr.—something may eventually give in terms of a trade. For now, though, Shumpert's athleticism and two-way play have him positioned to claim the starting shooting guard gig.
His defense alone could net him a larger role than he filled last season when he saw 26.5 minutes a night.
"Even though Iman Shumpert was in [former Knicks coach] Mike Woodson's dog house for much of last season, he's one of my favorites because he's simply our best on-ball defender at the 2 position and also against the bigger 1s," Knicks president Phil Jackson told reporters recently.
Shumpert's defensive versatility is key, because Calderon doesn't bring a lot to that end of the floor. With Shumpert's length (6'9.5" wingspan, per DraftExpress), athleticism and quickness, he has the tools to handle the toughest defensive backcourt assignment on a nightly basis.
Offensively, he has flashed an ability to create for himself and his teammates in the past. If he can find some consistency beyond the arc (he shot 33.3 percent from deep last season, down from 40.2 the year prior), he could play his way off the rumor mill and into New York's long-term plans pretty quickly.
Small Forward: J.R. Smith
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Thanks to the old-school stylings of Fisher and Jackson, this position has probably been earmarked for Carmelo Anthony. Despite Melo's recent success as a small-ball 4, the former scoring champ has said he expects to vacate the power forward spot and get back out on the wing.
"We got too many," Anthony said of the Knicks' power forwards, per ESPN New York's Ohm Youngmisuk. "I don't need to go down there and battle. For what?"
New York is heavy in terms of quantity at the 4, but the quality is a question mark. Between the fragility of Andrea Bargnani and Amar'e Stoudemire, Quincy Acy's offensive limitations and Jason Smith's low ceiling, there isn't much to get excited about.
At the 2 spot, though, the Knicks are overcrowded with some of their best players. In terms of talent, J.R. Smith could be second to only Anthony on this roster. Despite Smith's past success as a sub (2012-13 Sixth Man of the Year), he belongs with the starters.
On the surface, keeping his microwave offense and quick trigger on the bench seems to make sense. But rather than let him attack at will as a reserve, the Knicks could clean up his offensive play and improve his scoring chances by putting better players around him as a starter.
"With Melo and, in theory, Calderon on the court, Smith won't be a primary ball-handler," wrote Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes. "He'll still get loads of shots...but they'll be better ones. No more carte blanche to pound the dribble and fling up a 30-footer because no other options presented themselves."
Smith is a deadly shooter from distance (39.4 percent last season, 46.5 percent on catch-and-shoot threes) and a more-than-capable creator off the bounce. While he can limit himself at times with questionable shot selection and wavering defensive effort, giving him major minutes with New York's best lineup could bring out the best in him.
Power Forward: Carmelo Anthony
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Entering the 2012-13 campaign, Anthony had spent 84 percent of his career floor time at small forward. Over the past two seasons, he found 66 percent of his minutes at the 4.
So, how did those two years treat him? Well, he captured the first scoring title of his career, posted his two highest player efficiency ratings ever (24.8 and 24.4) and set a personal best in win shares the first year (9.5) before breaking it the next one (10.7).
"You’d be hard-pressed to find an Ivy School library with fewer pages than those dedicated to Carmelo Anthony’s superior effectiveness at power forward," Bleacher Report's Jim Cavan wrote.
Anthony is on a very short list of the game's greatest scorers, and he's the definition of a matchup nightmare at the 4. He can blow past big bruisers or overpower finesse 4s. This offense could move around him the floor and take full advantage of his wide-ranging skill set.
But he needs to start the game—and spend a majority of his minutes—at the 4. His PER was significantly higher at that spot last season (27.1 to 22.0), per 82games.com, and the difference in PER he allowed at both was negligible (14.8 at the 4, 13.7 at the 3).
Considering how much time Melo is likely to spend in both the low post and the weak-side pinch post, he'll need all the spacing he can get. That's far easier to create with three perimeter shooters holding court on the wings, as opposed to relying on the mid-range games of Stoudemire, Bargnani or Smith to give Anthony some breathing room.
All signs seem to point toward Fisher trotting out Anthony as a traditional 3. But the numbers say Anthony needs to stay right where he's been most effective.
Center: Samuel Dalembert
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"The only natural center among the potential starters is Samuel Dalembert," Jackson said.
Hey, a win by default is still technically a victory.
Knicks fans may not want Dalembert patrolling the paint, but they need the 6'11" veteran to provide some type of rim protection. Tyson Chandler, the Defensive Player of the Year in 2011-12, occupied this starting spot last season, and the Knicks still finished 24th in defensive efficiency.
There may be even more defensive holes on this roster. Unless Anthony and Smith greatly improve their intensity and focus at that end of the floor, there could be liabilities at three of the first four starting spots.
Dalembert isn't going to plug all of those gaps, but his track record suggests he'll close them better than any player on this frontcourt.
"He's a proven commodity who's going to challenge shooters at the rim," Jackson said.
For his career, Dalembert has averaged 2.6 blocks per 36 minutes. That ranks him in front of Stoudemire (1.4), Bargnani (1.1) and Smith (1.5), and puts him on the same level as Cole Aldrich, who hasn't held a permanent rotation spot during any of his four NBA seasons (career 7.7 minutes per game).
Dalembert is also a reliable rebounder (career 11.6 per 36 minutes) and a monster on the offensive glass (14.4 offensive rebounding percentage in 2013-14, second-highest in the league). He doesn't bring much else to the offensive end, but Fisher shouldn't be thinking about that side when filling this position.
The Knicks need a defender down low, and Dalembert is the best of this bunch.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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