Wisconsin Football: Game-by-Game Predictions for the Month of November

Heading into the final month of the season, the Wisconsin football team finds itself right in the thick of the Big Ten West Division race. At 5-2 overall and 2-1 in Big Ten play, the Badgers are one of four teams in the Big Ten West with one loss.

Sitting half a game behind Nebraska and Minnesota and tied with Iowa, all four teams have a legitimate shot at making it to Indianapolis to represent the West Division in the Big Ten Championship Game.

The representative will likely play the winner of the Michigan State vs. Ohio State game on Nov. 8 in East Lansing, Michigan.

The Badgers play five games in this final month, having gone past both of their bye weeks. They are able to field a mostly healthy roster for the first time since opening day, too, with the return of senior defensive end/nose guard Warren Herring and fullback Derek Watt.

With two games against teams toward the cellar of the conference on the road to open up the month before finishing against their three biggest Big Ten West adversaries in consecutive weeks, the Badgers control their own destiny, knowing they will likely need to win out to ensure their spot in Indianapolis.

Without further ado, let's take a look at each of the Badgers' five November matchups with predictions and plenty of #MelvinMoments to go around for all.

Nov. 1 at Rutgers Scarlet Knights

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Corey Clement, playing in his home state, will look to notch his third 100-yard game this season against Rutgers.

Playing their second true road game of the season and their third trip away from Madison of the year, the Badgers look for their first win outside of Madison when they travel to High Point Solutions Stadium in Piscataway, New Jersey, to take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights.

Rutgers starting quarterback Gary Nova may or may not play against the Badgers, which means the Scarlet Knights are either trotting out someone with 41 games of experience or three.

After three shaky seasons, Nova seemed to have hit a stride this season, completing 59 percent of his passes with 1,949 yards, 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions.

If Nova can't go, it's up to freshman Chris Laviano, who in parts of three games is 6-of-11 for 59 yards through the air with no touchdowns or interceptions, while also chipping in five carries for 54 yards on the ground.

Laviano actually looked quite good against Nebraska, going 4-of-7 for 49 yards passing and five carries for 54 rushing yards and leading the team to 17 second-half points. However, the team was down 21 by the time he got his first full drive.

In this game, look for the Badgers to establish the run game and go back to it early and often. With Melvin Gordon seeing 15 touches in the first half and Corey Clement, playing in his home state less than 100 miles from his hometown, getting 10 himself, the Badgers jump to a 24-7 lead.

In an odd twist, it is Clement who gets to 100 yards first, breaking through early in the third quarter for a massive touchdown run while Gordon follows shortly thereafter in a game that gets out of hand relatively quickly.

With either a hobbled Nova or a shaky Laviano under center, Rutgers can't really get anything going on offense, suffering much the same fate Maryland did last week against an improved and talented Badgers defense.

Wisconsin 38, Rutgers 10

Nov. 8 at Purdue Boilermakers

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The Badgers will run all over Purdue before starting their difficult three-game stretch to close the season.

In past years, playing Purdue could be marked down instantly as a win. This season, that certainty has been downgraded to a strong probability, as the Boilermakers have made huge strides this season despite still severely lacking in the win column.

The Boilermakers are 3-5 this season, notching their first Big Ten win since ripping off three straight to close the 2012 season after beating Illinois on Oct. 4. But despite just being 1-3 in the Big Ten, they have played their three other Big Ten foes far closer than one may have guessed.

In their last game, at TCF Bank Stadium, the Boilermakers lost to the Minnesota Golden Gophers 39-38, leading for much of the game and losing on a 52-yard field goal by Ryan Santoso with about five minutes left in the game.

Unfortunately for the Boilermakers, the Badgers are unbelievable when playing in the state of Indiana. In 2012, when the Badgers went 8-6, they went 3-0 while playing in Indiana, outscoring opponents 170-59 in those three games.

With the offense turned over to Austin Appleby—who is 1-2 as a starter with 556 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions in those three games—Purdue looks like a competent team capable of beating a team that may be overlooking them. 

With a game looming against Nebraska, this could be said game for the Badgers.

Despite the foreboding sentence that precedes this one, Purdue concedes 190.3 rushing yards per game, and that figure is before it faces Melvin Gordon, Tevin Coleman (Indiana) or Ameer Abdullah (Nebraska). With a shaky run defense, teams don't really have a chance against the Badgers.

Look for Wisconsin to jump all over Purdue early, with Gordon and Clement each chipping in over 100 yards, with Gordon coming in closer to 200 before taking a seat for the fourth quarter.

Quarterback Joel Stave does just enough to keep the Purdue defense honest and not keep nine guys in the box.

Appleby could turn into a good quarterback down the road with an ability to steal games for Purdue, but against the Badgers' blitzing front, the young quarterback throws two interceptions and takes four sacks in a forgettable game for the Boilermakers.

Wisconsin 48, Purdue 13

Nov. 15 vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers

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Last time the Badgers played Nebraska, Melvin Gordon ran for 216 yards on just nine carries.

When the divisions were drawn up along geographic lines, one saw plenty of parity in the East with Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State.

That's four schools steeped in football tradition or, at least in Michigan State's case, a run of recent success that puts the Spartans in the same breath as the other three schools.

In the West, Purdue, Illinois and Northwestern by and large are non-factors on a year-in, year-out basis. While Minnesota has had pockets of success, of relatively recent vintage, it hasn't been much of a factor when it comes to competing for Big Ten titles.

This leaves Iowa, Nebraska and Wisconsin. While Iowa has been consistent under Kirk Ferentz, after a stretch from 2002-04 where the Hawkeyes pulled out three straight 10-plus-win seasons, the Hawkeyes have cracked double-digit wins only once and have lost at least three Big Ten games every season but one (2009).

This leaves just Wisconsin and Nebraska as the two teams to duke it out for West Division supremacy on an annual basis. Since the Cornhuskers joined the Big Ten, the two teams have played three times, with the Badgers holding a 2-1 record.

In their first Big Ten game, the eighth-ranked Cornhuskers were throttled 48-17 by the seventh-ranked Badgers in Russell Wilson's coming-out party as the best quarterback to play for Wisconsin in a long time.

The following year, the Badgers traveled to Lincoln where they watched a 17-point lead evaporate, en route to a 30-27 loss. The Badgers would get revenge in the Big Ten Championship Game, manhandling the Cornhuskers 70-31 in Indianapolis for one of the craziest and most surprising results of the season.

But enough history, let's get to brass tacks. Nebraska is currently 7-1 and will likely be 8-1 after hosting Purdue, heading into this game with a bye week to rest up and prepare for the Badgers, who will be coming home after two straight road contests.

Look for a hard-fought game as both teams are excellent at getting to the opposing quarterback with phenomenal rushing attacks.

Both Ameer Abdullah and Melvin Gordon, who are friends off the field, will be competing not only for Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year honors, but also for a trip to New York and a shot to win the Heisman Trophy.

With this game being played in Madison, I look for the Badgers to take this one, though it won't be easy. Nebraska has looked like the most complete team in the Big Ten West with its sole loss coming to Michigan State in East Lansing, hardly a bad loss.

With that being said, save a 10-point win against a resurgent Miami (Florida) team at home, the Cornhuskers haven't really had any marquee wins. They also haven't slipped up the way the Badgers did at Northwestern or the Hawkeyes did to both Iowa State and Maryland.

I'd expect this game to come down to the final possessions with it being the embodiment of Big Ten football at its finest: two teams that line up across from each other and punch each other in the mouth with the run games.

Wisconsin 31, Nebraska 27

Nov. 22 at Iowa Hawkeyes

Charlie Neibergall/Associated Press

Despite struggling last year, Gordon, a former Iowa commit, will likely have a big game against the Hawkeyes.

Coming off arguably their toughest game of the season, the Badgers face their next-toughest game of the season as they travel to Kinnick Stadium to take on the Iowa Hawkeyes for the Heartland Trophy.  

This is one of the closest rivalries in history, with the Badgers holding a narrow 43-42-2 lead.

The last time these two teams faced off, also at Kinnick Stadium due to a scheduling quirk caused by the shifting of the divisions to align geographically, the Badgers emerged victorious by a score of 28-9, as the Hawkeyes looked limp out of the gate and never could recover.

One note from that game was the way they shut down Melvin Gordon, holding him to just 62 yards on 17 carries. Gordon, the former Iowa commit, admitted this summer that he was not excited to travel to Iowa again.

"I had such a hard time with Iowa, I’m telling you," Gordon said. "Their fans, they really got to me. I was just so upset. I was just so mad that the Iowa fans got in my head that game."

With that in mind, look for Gordon to come out with a vengeance if he's not worn out yet. Gordon has 154 carries in his first seven games.

Last season, in 13 games, he had 206 carries and looked a bit worn down by the end of the season. While I'm not suggesting that he will wear down again, he'll be inching toward 300 carries by the end of the season.

Another classic matchup of Big Ten teams, while Iowa has struggled against teams that like to air it out, I'd look for both teams to line up across from each other with the full intention of running straight into the pile and hoping to come out on the other side.

Both teams feature similar quarterbacks in Jake Rudock and Joel Stave. Rudock has improved significantly, completing 64.8 percent of his passes this season, up from 59 percent last season.

He has thrown nine touchdowns against just three interceptions. Last season, Rudock threw 18 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.

While normally I say that these games will be decided by how well Gordon and Clement do, I think this one will fall on the shoulders of both quarterbacks. Stave played well in his first (and only) trip to Kinnick, going 11-of-19 for 144 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.

If Stave can complete 60 percent of his passes or better and find Alex Erickson on a long play-action pass, it will keep the Hawkeyes from loading up against Clement and Gordon.

Tanner McEvoy will also be key. As with every passing game, he'll become more comfortable with the packages run for him.

Similar to the way the Badgers scored 14 fourth-quarter points to make a 14-9 game look far more lopsided, I'd expect a close game with a double-digit outcome in this contest.

Wisconsin 24, Iowa 13

Nov. 29 vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers

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The Badgers will look to bring home Paul Bunyan's Axe for the 11th straight year in their season-ending clash against Minnesota.

What better way to close the season then with the battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe. Minnesota and Wisconsin first faced off in 1890 and have played every year (but 1906) since, with the Gophers holding a 59-56-8 lead in the series.

But recent history has not been so kind to the Gophers. Since 1995, Minnesota has beaten Wisconsin only twice, with the Badgers winning the last 10, the longest winning streak in the lengthy history of the border battle.

After a surprising 5-1 start, with their only loss coming to the now No. 7-ranked TCU Horned Frogs in Fort Worth, Texas, the Gophers bent at home against Purdue, eking out a 39-38 victory over the lowly Boilermakers.  

They followed that up with a crushing 28-24 defeat in Champaign, Illinois, against the Illinois Fighting Illini, who were previously winless in the Big Ten.

The Gophers head into the home stretch of their schedule with four of their toughest games lined up all in a row. After a bye week to start the month of November, the Gophers get home dates with Iowa and Ohio State before traveling to Lincoln to play Nebraska and then on to Madison to play the Badgers.

While the Gophers are still sitting atop the Big Ten West at 3-1, by the time they get to Madison, it will likely be the Badgers playing for a shot to get to Indianapolis as opposed to the Gophers.

The players to watch for the Gophers here are quarterback Mitch Leidner and running back David Cobb, one of whom is one of the best at his position. The other one makes Joel Stave look like former Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award winner Scott Tolzien.

Granted it was without Leidner, but the Gophers won a game this season where they had a quarterback go 1-of-7 for seven yards, no touchdowns and one interception. I'll let that one sink in for a minute.

Leidner was not under center that game, but he has been just as woeful at times. He is completing 51.1 percent of his passes with 1,087 yards (155.3 yards per game), six touchdowns and six interceptions.

In their loss against Illinois, Leidner went 12-of-30 for 240 yards, a touchdown and an interception.

While Leidner hasn't been bad enough to lose the team games, he certainly isn't going to win any games with his arm. Conversely, while Cobb is a tremendous running back, he's not quite at the Gordon, Coleman and Abdullah level where he can win games by himself.

Cobb has racked up 1,131 yards on an astounding 211 carries for seven touchdowns. His 1,131 yards is good for seventh in the nation while currently in second for most rushing attempts, just two behind the leader.

If Cobb keeps up this pace, he will take his 300th carry of the season sometime before halftime against the Badgers. With that much tread on his tires and with Cobb being one of the only legitimate options in the Gophers offense, he may be a candidate to wear down by season's end.

With a tired Cobb, likely cold conditions and a nasty Badgers run defense that concedes only 115.5 rushing yards per game against FBS foes, the Badgers should chop down their own goalposts after winning the axe for a record 11th straight time.

Wisconsin 23, Minnesota 10