NBA Preseason 2014-15: Biggest Rookie Surprises and Disappointments
Through roughly three weeks of preseason ball, we've seen some pleasant surprises and discouraging disappointments within the 2014 rookie class.
As expected, the top picks in Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker have both looked pretty good.
And so have a number of rookies taken outside the lottery—guys we probably wouldn't have predicted would seem to fit in quite so quickly.
On the other hand, we've seen a few of the more high-profile guys look overwhelmed or outmatched—rookies who appeared more NBA-ready back in 2013, when they were shining against 18-21-year-old kids.
Of course, take everything with a grain of salt here, considering it's just preseason action. But first impressions could go a long way with regard to playing time when it counts in November.
All advanced stats courtesy of Realgm.com
Pleasant Surprise: Kostas Papanikolaou, Houston Rockets, SF/PF
1 of 10
Drafted by New York in 2012, traded to Portland soon after and then dealt to Houston one year later (stayed abroad last two seasons), it looks like the Rockets got themselves a player in Kostas Papanikolaou—whether they targeted him directly or lucked out by acquiring him as a throw in (Thomas Robinson trade).
His preseason numbers as a whole are nothing to drool over, but his on-court maturity and versatility have stood out through six preseason games.
Papanikolaou has looked like your traditional do-it-all glue guy. At 6'8", he's got playmaking ability off the dribble. And Papanikolaou is crafty—we've already seen him shake a number of defenders with clever fakes and up-and-unders, while his vision and passing remain a big part of his game.
“Getting the ball in your hands and creating plays for the others is also great for confidence," Papanikaloau told Jenny Dial Creech of Ultimate Rockets.
Though he hasn't shot it particularly well, he's got a confident release, and he made at least 34 percent of his threes over his last three years abroad. Something tells me they're going to start falling for Papanikolaou eventually.
With the Rockets struggling for solid answers and depth at the power forward position, they've recently experimented with Papanikolaou at the 4. Either way, look for Houston to try and involve the 24-year-old rookie, given the unique dimension of offense he brings to Houston's frontcourt.
Disappointment: Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics, PG/SG
2 of 10
Consider this first preseason a learning experience for Marcus Smart, who's finding out that adjustments must be made to his game in order for it to work at the NBA level.
He's shooting a cringe-worthy 26.9 percent from the field, a number you can tie directly to Smart's uninspiring shot selection.
Of his 52 field-goal attempts, a whopping 39 of them have come from behind the arc—which is ironic, considering three-point shooting has been well documented as a glaring weakness.
One of the issues here is that Smart's mid-range game is pretty much nonexistent. Having hit just 27 two-point jumpers all year as a sophomore at Oklahoma State, per Hoop-Math.com, this isn't exactly a new development.
Smart will ultimately need to find easier ways to score against a set defense, because right now, it's either a hard take to the rack or a long-range bomb—nothing in between.
Pleasant Surprise: Kyle Anderson, San Antonio Spurs, SF
3 of 10
After slipping to No. 30 in the draft and struggling at Las Vegas Summer League, it's been a pleasant surprise to see Kyle Anderson fit in quite nicely during preseason.
No longer a floor general the way he was back at UCLA, Anderson has looked comfortable off the ball, where he's played to his strengths as an opportunistic shot-maker and ball-mover.
And while everyone had concerns over his athletic ability for a projected NBA wing, his long strides and awesome body control have seemed to help neutralize his lack of burst. The sample size is obviously tiny, but he's finished seven of his first 10 shots in the paint through four preseason games.
It also helps that Anderson is shooting it fairly well, having connected on 4 of 12 mid-range jumpers and 3 of 7 from downtown. Mike Monroe of San Antonio Express-News noted how confident he's looked behind the arc.
In between, he's flashed his basketball IQ and passing instincts on a number of pretty dishes.
Anderson hasn't done anything flashy, but he's made the right plays when the ball has found him in the offense, and in San Antonio, that could go a long way with regard to playing time.
He's averaging 11.2 points, 5.5 boards and 2.5 assists on 48.3 percent shooting. If Kawhi Leonard is unable to play early on with this eye strain he's dealing with, Anderson might be line for some minutes right off the bat.
Disappointment: Julius Randle, Los Angeles Lakers, PF
4 of 10
So much for all that size and strength. After bullying his way through SEC competition, Julius Randle no longer looks like the mismatch he was a year ago at Kentucky.
He's shooting just 39.1 percent while struggling to find his sweet spots on the floor. And those are going to be tough for Randle to find until he develops that mid-range jumper.
Clearly at his best when he can face up and attack his man in space, defenders have already begun sagging off and forcing Randle to beat them as a shooter.
He's only made 18 total shots in six games playing 18.9 minutes in each. He's also 5 of 11 from the line, another reminder that his outside touch needs major work.
Randle's rebounding percentage is also down from college (20 percent to 14.8 percent), and he's fouling at too high of a rate (6.9 per 40).
"I thought he was lost, in the first half especially," coach Byron Scott said, via ESPN's Arash Markazi. "I thought in the second half, especially in the fourth quarter he was better, but I thought in the first half the game was way too fast for him."
Pleasant Surprise: K.J. McDaniels, Philadelphia 76ers, SG/SF
5 of 10
Falling to the second round might have been a blessing in disguise for K.J. McDaniels, who's all of a sudden in line for major minutes and potentially a starting role in Philadelphia.
Realistically, all he really had to do was show up in one piece, given how shallow the Sixers are on the wing. But McDaniels has actually impressed during preseason, where he's sporting a 15.2 Player Efficiency Rating while flashing his unique defensive instincts.
After leading the ACC in blocks last year standing just 6'6", McDaniels has already racked up 14 rejections through seven preseason games. Only Andre Drummond and Pau Gasol are averaging more per game in preseason.
While he's struggled a bit as a scorer and shot creator in the half court, McDaniels' ability to make plays off the ball is really what defines him as a prospect. He's created a few big-time highlights already, whether it's been a chase-down two-handed swat, a putback slam or a backdoor alley-oop.
At this point, he's probably more of a defensive specialist, offensive slasher and off-ball finisher, but if McDaniels ever learns how to shoot, the Sixers could walk away with a major steal from the 2014 second round.
Disappointment: Zach LaVine, Minnesota Timberwolves, SG
6 of 10
Heading into the draft, one of the biggest knocks on Zach LaVine was his lack of NBA readiness and on-court maturity.
And the preseason has confirmed that knock as valid.
Only one other first-round pick (C.J. Wilcox, No. 28 overall) has a lower Player Efficiency Rating than LaVine's ugly 2.01. He's shooting just 38.7 percent and averaging twice as many turnovers as assists.
LaVine's decision-making as a playmaker is pretty off—at this point, he's still unsure how to go about creating high-percentage looks, whether it's for himself or a teammate.
In the half court, LaVine relies on trying to hit some ridiculously tough shots, many of which come outside the paint yet inside the arc. So far, he's 0-of-12 in the mid-range through four games.
His electric athleticism and effortless bounce make LaVine a fun watch, but he's just not ready—physically or fundamentally—to hold his own playing regular NBA minutes.
Pleasant Surprise: P.J. Hairston, Charlotte Hornets, SG/SF
7 of 10
If there's one thing we didn't have to worry about with P.J. Hairston, it was confidence.
And it seems to be pumping in preseason, where he's shooting it 45.5 percent from downtown through seven games. Hairston hasn't exactly been shy either—he's making 2.1 per contest, showcasing that quick release, deep range and ability to convert while challenged.
Considering the Hornets finished in the bottom seven of the league last year in both three-point shooting and three-pointers made, Hairston's lethal outside touch should hold value in a lineup that also features a big man who would benefit from extra space.
At 6'6", 230 pounds, Hairston fits right into the NBA game from a physical standpoint. Unless Michael Kidd-Gilchrist or Gerald Henderson suddenly evolve into distance shooters, Hairston might be a candidate to crack the rotation sooner than later.
Disappointment: Gary Harris, Denver Nuggets, SG
8 of 10
Gary Harris is a fundamentally sound scorer, but inefficiency has the potential to really weigh on his NBA value.
He looks good when he's knocking down outside shots, but that's ultimately what he must rely on to stay effective.
Harris was never any good at getting to the hoop and finishing—in the half court, he only made 25 shots at the rim in 35 games all season as a sophomore at Michigan State, per Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress.
Though the sample size is tiny, he's struggled so far with the same issue, having missed nine of his first 11 shots attempted at the rim.
It gives Harris little margin for error. If his jumper isn't on, chances are neither is his game. Harris isn't much of a playmaker or presence on the glass—he's only got a total of six assists and eight rebounds in seven games so far, having averaged 20.2 minutes in each.
Shooting just 34.2 percent and 29.4 percent from downtown, Harris has been somewhat disappointing after sliding to No. 19 in the draft.
Pleasant Surprise: James Ennis, Miami Heat, SF
9 of 10
James Ennis was drafted in 2013, but after spending last year torching Australia's National Basketball League, he now comes over to the Heat as one of the NBA's under-the-radar rookies.
He carried a strong summer league straight into NBA preseason, where he's a combined 19-of-36 shooting (52.8 percent) from the floor and 5-of-12 (41.7 percent) from downtown. Ennis has already put up a few big lines, including two 17-point performances in under 25 minutes and a 14-point, 10-board, five-assist gem against the Orlando Magic.
Three-and-D immediately comes to mind when scouting Ennis, whose blend of smooth athleticism, long arms and outside touch is highly valued in the pros.
Dynamite in the open floor and dangerous from outside, we've also seen Ennis sprinkle in a little one-on-one offense in between.
Quite frankly, the Heat's bland second unit could really use another offensive weapon. And assuming Danny Granger isn't that guy, it wouldn't be surprising to see Ennis emerge as a regular rotational wing in Miami.
Disappointment: Adreian Payne, Atlanta Hawks, PF
10 of 10
To his credit, Adreian Payne has only played four games, logging 20 minutes in two, 17 in one and 10 in another. So it's tough to be too hard on him.
But Payne hasn't done much in his limited action or given the Hawks any reason to look at him for regular-season minutes. Not with Mike Scott back, Al Horford healthy and Paul Millsap coming off an All-Star season.
What's somewhat unsettling here is that one of Payne's major selling points out of college was his NBA-ready package. Payne seemed like a guy who could step in right away and contribute, given his four years of experience at Michigan State and his good-looking outside shot.
But that's not what he's looked like early on, having missed five of his first six three-point attempts and 12 of his 17 shots total. Only four first-round picks have a worse Player Efficiency Rating this preseason.
Compared to most rookies, at 23 years old, Payne doesn't have as much room for growth or time to develop. And given Atlanta's frontcourt depth, you just worry he won't even get much of a chance.
