Texas Football: The Longhorns' Blueprint for Pulling the Upset vs. Kansas State

The Longhorns have a tough task ahead of them on Saturday, when they will try to knock off the No. 11 Kansas State Wildcats on the road for the first time since 2002.

The blueprint to pulling off the upset starts with playing smart football and undoubtedly ends with emerging star Tyrone Swoopes.

Just halfway through the season, Bill Snyder's team is the last Big 12 team without an in-conference loss. Were it not for a three-point loss to then-No. 2 Auburn, the Wildcats could easily be sitting as a Top Five program.

For Charlie Strong to pull off a signature win on the road against this team, his Horns will have to play their smartest game of the season and finally figure out how to control a mobile quarterback.

More than anything, he needs his quarterback to continue to play like the star of this team.

Eliminate the Self-Destructive Mistakes

LM Otero/Associated Press

Self-imposed errors have frustrated and derailed Charlie Strong's team.

You have to play sound, smart football to beat the Wildcats, who never seem to beat themselves with silly mistakes. 

However, they are always ready to pounce when the opposition slips up, which could a real problem for these Longhorns.

Kansas State is third in the nation with under four penalties per game while ranking in the top 10 with just six lost turnovers in as many games. On the other hand, Texas commits over six penalties per contest and has lost 13 turnovers through six games.

Since the beginning of the season, the Horns' propensity for big errors has kept them from picking up key wins. They gave UCLA an extra possession in a 20-17 loss, and then gifted Oklahoma 14 points in a 31-26 loss.

Even in their 48-45 win over Iowa State, the Longhorns turned the ball over on consecutive plays to turn a probable 21-0 lead into a 21-14 second-quarter deficit.

"

Texas was eight yards away from leading 21-0. Now it trails Iowa State 21-14. Crazy.

— Mike Finger (@mikefinger) October 19, 2014"

It took an improbable game-winning drive to overcome those blunders. That won't happen against the Wildcats, especially on the road in Manhattan.

Keep Contain on Jake Waters

Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press

Waters is quietly one of nation's most effective scramblers.

The Longhorn defense has been gashed for 40-plus points twice this season. Both times have been at the hands of smart running quarterbacks, which Texas will face Saturday in the Wildcats' Jake Waters.

BYU's Taysom Hill shredded the Texas front in the Cougars' 41-7 victory, piling up 99 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Though his numbers on the ground weren't gaudy, Iowa State's Sam Richardson ran in a score and extended several plays with his feet, which translated to the Longhorns giving up a season-worst 345 yards through the air.

Waters is smaller than both Hill and Richardson, but the principles are the same for Kansas State's leading rusher. He will take what the defense gives him, which can be a lot once he starts running around.

During his Wednesday media session, defensive coordinator Vance Bedford discussed how Waters stresses a defense:

"

I tell you what, this quarterback – and you're going to laugh – he reminds me of Russell Wilson. Patient. Runs it when he has to run it. He knows where all his receivers are. Guy is a winner, competitor. The things he does, no one is really able to defend you. You look at Oklahoma, he does a little pop pass and that goes for 70 yards and a touchdown. I thought Oklahoma has pretty good personnel on defense. It's hard to defend. You have to be very disciplined on defense because of what he does.

"

To prevent Waters from having his way with this defense, Texas has to do a better job of keeping him in the pocket. As noted by SB Nation's Wescott Eberts, Richardson did the bulk of his damage once he broke contain, at which point the Horns struggled to get him on the ground.

Getting Jason Hall, who remains day-to-day, back on the field would help in this department. For now, the Longhorn linebackers have to do a better job of setting the edge so the pass rush can get home before Waters has a chance to extend the play.

Keep Riding Swoopes

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Swoopes is firing on all cylinders, and he's transforming the Texas offense while he's at it.

Per 247Sports' Jeff Howe, only three Longhorn quarterbacks have ever totaled 800 yards or more over a two-game stretch. The first two are Vince Young and Colt McCoy.

The third is Tyrone Swoopes, who holds the key to a Texas upset in Manhattan.

Swoopes broke through in Texas' last two games, accounting for 804 yards and five touchdowns against Oklahoma and Iowa State. The sophomore was the best player on the field in both contests, sparking Texas to its best offensive performances of the season.

For Swoopes, the biggest difference has been his confidence running the ball. After gaining just 65 yards on his first 38 carries, the big sophomore has turned his last 25 totes into 145 yards and a couple of touchdowns, using his 243-pound frame to run through defenders in the open field.

Now that defenses are forced to account for Swoopes' ability to pick up chunks on the ground, the downfield passing game has begun to open up as well. He's averaged 8.2 yards per attempt over his recent tear, which is well above the 5.5 YPA he posted through his first four starts.

There will still be growing pains, but Swoopes has shown that this offense will go as he goes. If he continues to play like a star, Texas will have plenty of chances to steal this game.