San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Denver Broncos will try to extend their winning streak to four games when they host the San Diego Chargers in a key AFC West matchup on Thursday Night Football.

The Broncos have not lost since dropping their Super Bowl rematch with the Seattle Seahawks 26-20 in overtime during Week 3, but they are just 6-19-1 against the spread in their last 26 home games against divisional opponents.

Interestingly, the Chargers are 12-2-1 ATS since 2002 when getting seven points or more. More interestingly, it occurred three times last season, all against the Broncos.

Point spread: Broncos opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 50.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 31.3-30.0 Chargers

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

The Chargers have covered the spread in three of the past four meetings with Denver, including a 27-20 road victory as 10-point underdogs in Week 15 of last season. San Diego head coach Mike McCoy knows his old team well after serving as the Broncos offensive coordinator for four years from 2009-12.

Even though the Chargers lost at Denver in the playoffs last year, they played the Broncos very tough in a 24-17 loss and still manage to cover as eight-point road underdogs. San Diego is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games away from home against AFC West opponents and a perfect 6-0 versus the line in its past six as road dogs.

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Denver is firing on all cylinders right now as the best team in the NFL, according to oddsmakers and power ratings everywhere. With Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning breaking Brett Favre’s all-time passing touchdown record last week in a 42-17 rout of the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday Night Football, he and his teammates can just focus on winning as many games as possible the rest of the way and securing home-field advantage in the AFC.

One of the keys to that scenario is winning the AFC West for the fourth straight year, and the Chargers pose a viable threat this season. That makes beating San Diego in this spot at home critical, and, like last week, winning by more than a touchdown would send a message to the rest of the league.

Smart pick

Another record for Manning—and a big one at that—is great and all for him personally. But he is trying to accomplish something much greater: a second Super Bowl title.

Denver will be coming off an emotional high from its latest win, but it has had trouble with AFC West foes, going just 6-19-1 ATS in the last 26 divisional home games.

Meanwhile, the Chargers have favorable betting trends on their side heading into this matchup and will be trying to bounce back from losing to the Kansas City Chiefs 23-20 at home last week as three-point favorites.

They know their opponent well and should be able to stay within a touchdown here, with an outside shot at the outright upset victory, as the computer has boldly predicted.

Betting trends

• San Diego is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games on the road.
• San Diego has covered six in a row as road underdogs.

All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.