Welcome Back to the Playoff Picture, Oregon

In reality, Oregon never really left the playoff discussion. Perhaps it was more of a brief hibernation. 

In fact, very few teams who were considered playoff contenders to start the season are all but officially out as of mid-October. Oklahoma, after suffering its second loss of the season to Kansas State, has a mountain to climb to get back into the race. So, too, does UCLA. 

And, yes, as unlikely as it seems, SMU has been eliminated from playoff contention. 

Overall, though, don't be quick to pull the trigger on anyone. Eliminating anyone from the Big Ten after Week 2 was a mistake, just as eliminating the Pac-12 after Week 6 was wrong.

Don't like preseason rankings? That's fine, but then conversely we must acknowledge that teams and conferences still have a chance of snagging a playoff spot despite early losses. 

As far as the whole body of work is concerned, the regular season still matters in the playoff era. 

At 6-1—the lone loss coming to Arizona—the Ducks are very much alive. The latest playoff projection from USA Today has Oregon in the field as a No. 4 seed if the season were to end today. Mississippi State received the top seed with Florida State as a No. 2 seed, and Ole Miss is a No. 3 seed.

Coupled with that, B/R's playoff guru, Samuel Chi, checks Oregon in at No. 6 in his latest playoff rankings. That's already up four spots from the week before. 

This year has shown shades of the chaos of 2007, and more upsets could be on the way. As Pat Forde of Yahoo Sports writes, the likely playoff field will, mathematically speaking, continue to thin as the season trudges on: 

"

The max pool of teams from power-five conferences that could end the season with one or fewer losses now looks like this: two from the ACC (Florida State and Duke); two from the Big 12 (either Baylor and TCU, or just one of Kansas State, Baylor and TCU); one from the Big Ten (Michigan State, Ohio State, Nebraska, Minnesota); one from the Pac-12 (Oregon, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah); three from the SEC (from a group of Mississippi State, Mississippi, Alabama, Auburn and Georgia); and Notre Dame.

"

That's a best-case scenario too. If this season has taught us anything, it's that you, the fan, should pray for the best but expect the worst. 

The good news for Oregon is that it leads the North Division with a 3-1 conference record and controls its Pac-12 destiny. That's all it can control—that, and its attitude, as head coach Mark Helfrich explained to reporters. 

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[After the Arizona loss, players] came in disappointed, frustrated and looked each other directly in the eye and said, let's fix this together. There was no pout element to it at all. We can't sit here and say what if we had these receivers back or these offensive linemen back. We are who we are right now and our guys are competing their tails off.

... I think the last couple weeks we've practiced with a little bit more of a grittier edge physically, competitively. That's shown up.

"

The Ducks have arguably the best player in college football in quarterback Marcus Mariota but also had two glaring weaknesses: a patchwork offensive line and subpar pass defense. But as Andrew Greif of The Oregonian notes, Oregon played better on both fronts in a 45-20 win over Washington in Week 8. 

Oregon's offensive line has allowed just two sacks in the last two games. That's a big accomplishment considering it had allowed 12 sacks in the previous two games before that, and given Washington's ability to get pressure in the backfield. 

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

That's a positive sign for Oregon going forward. The Nov. 1 game against Stanford will provide another stiff test as the Cardinal claim one of the best defenses in the country, giving up just 12.3 points a game. For that matter, Stanford has had Oregon's number lately with two straight wins over the Ducks. 

However, as Arizona State showed in a 26-10 win over Stanford in Week 8, if an offense can get something going against the Cardinal, they don't have the offensive firepower to respond. 

There are few, if any, "gimmes" on anyone's schedule—not with the upsets this season has already produced. Interestingly, the games before and after Stanford—at Cal and at Utah—could be the tricky spots for the Ducks. 

Team	Date
at Cal	Oct. 24
Stanford	Nov. 1
at Utah	Nov. 8
Colorado	Nov. 22
at Oregon State	Nov. 29

Oregon isn't safe, but it is in a good spot provided it keeps winning. It has a signature win in nonconference play against Michigan State and is on pace to win its conference.

If those two things are combined at season's end, the Ducks will be serious contenders in the playoff picture. 

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. Stats and info courtesy of cfbstats.com.