Predicting First Wave of NBA Players to Hit the 2014-15 NBA Trade Block
What would the NBA be without trade rumors?
Nothing. Nada. Zilch. Zero. Pick your favorite synonym at your own discretion.
That's not really true, as the league would still be quite entertaining and brimming over with incredible basketball talent, lending itself to high-quality games and endless championship-related drama. But at this point in the development of the Association, which has very much become a 24/7/365 entity (24/7/366 on leap years), it's virtually impossible to separate the league from the trade rumors that so often spring forth from its inner workings.
The 2014-15 season is bound to have its fair share of players who become central figures in the ever-churning NBA rumor mill. Some will be old faces who you're used to seeing tossed about and constantly used in hypothetical trade proposals, but others will be new ones.
Being on the block doesn't necessarily indicate the inevitably of a future swap, but it does admit the presence of a distinct possibility that such a roster move could come to fruition.
The first wave is nearly upon us, so buckle those seat belts, set out your calculators for salary considerations and get ready to play general manager when the season begins.
The Familiar Names
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Try as you might, there's a quartet of names you'll never escape in the sphere of trade rumors.
The first is Rajon Rondo of the Boston Celtics, who's still with the team he's always played for despite constantly finding himself engulfed by endless speculation about his future destination.
"We expect Rajon to be in Boston for the long term," Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge recently espoused, as relayed by Comcast SportsNet. "Does that need to be asked anymore by anybody every again?"
Well, yes. It does.
Rondo may be happy with his current location, but he's still going to be bandied about as a possible point guard solution for teams hoping to upgrade at the 1. The Celtics basically guaranteed that by drafting Marcus Smart and inking Avery Bradley to a big extension during this offseason.
Another player who falls into a similar realm is Josh Smith, the subject of so much criticism based on his ill-advised shooting exploits during his initial foray into the Detroit Pistons portion of his career. Regardless of whether Stan Van Gundy gets him back on track in 2014-15, he still doesn't make sense on a team with playoff aspirations that boasts the services of both Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond.
"The question is whether [Detroit owner Tom] Gores also believes Monroe will even listen to the Pistons' pitch next summer. There's a danger in trading Smith if Monroe is already set on leaving in 2015," Stephen Babb explained earlier this summer. "But there may be even more danger in expecting the two to coexist for the time being."
Speaking of players who don't fit in based on the wealth of similarly positioned talent around them, how about Eric Gordon and Ersan Ilyasova?
The New Orleans Pelicans 2-guard and Milwaukee Bucks combo forward have both found themselves in the rumor mill before, and that shouldn't change going forward. With a glut of guards by the bayou—and a successful experiment with Ryan Anderson at small forward could push Tyreke Evans back into the backcourt—and plenty of promising forwards in Milwaukee, both players are rather expendable.
Chase Budinger, Minnesota Timberwolves
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Per Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports, "The Minnesota Timberwolves are shopping forward Chase Budinger in trade talks, league sources told Yahoo Sports."
Why wouldn't they?
Flip Saunders and the rest of the Minnesota front office have made it quite clear throughout the hottest months of the year that they're entering into a new era of Wolves basketball. Kevin Love was shipped away to the Cleveland Cavaliers, replaced by a virtual army of young talent.
To be fair, Budinger still counts as "young talent."
The 6'7" small forward is only 26 years old, and his NBA career hasn't progressed as expected largely because of his injury-prone nature. Budinger has played in 64 games over the past two seasons, and that's a total, not an average.
Minnesota can't be blamed if it's grown weary of seeing the well-paid 3 suit up in street clothes while his team is playing, especially now that there are even more intriguing options at his position. Handing minutes to the five-year veteran simply doesn't make as much sense as letting Andrew Wiggins, Zach LaVine, Shabazz Muhammad and Glenn Robinson III line up at the wing positions.
Some other team should be willing to give him a chance, but doing so isn't in the best interest of the Timberwolves any longer.
Nikola Pekovic, Minnesota Timberwolves
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We're not ready to leave the original home of the Lakers quite yet.
Though his inability to protect the rim often held back Minnesota when he shared the court with Kevin Love, Nikola Pekovic was still a decent fit for that Wolves roster. But that's no longer true.
More so than ever before, this young squad is geared to run, run and then run some more. According to Basketball-Reference.com, last year's iteration finished with the No. 4 pace in the Association, trailing only the Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Lakers and Philadelphia 76ers. This season, a No. 4 finish would be too slow.
With Ricky Rubio blazing down the court and preparing to distribute the rock to one of many athletic targets, it doesn't make sense to employ a lumbering center. Sure, Pekovic can jog down the floor and clean up some misses, and he's a strong offensive threat in the half-court set.
But he's not a runner.
Gorgui Dieng could be.
Much as is the case with Budinger and the other high-upside options, Pekovic isn't necessarily as big a part of the future as those waiting in the wings. Minnesota may force Dieng onto the court at power forward, but his long-term role is as a center, playing defensive anchor and using his athleticism and instincts to his advantage around the rim on both ends of the floor.
Jason Thompson, Sacramento Kings
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Jason Thompson has found himself in the rumor mill before, but it's been all quiet on that front for quite some time.
"League sources told ESPN.com that the Kings will be trying to find a new home for forward Jason Thompson, who presumably wouldn't quibble with a fresh start after the arrivals of [Rudy] Gay and [Derrick] Williams to play alongside [DeMarcus] Cousins," reported ESPN.com's Marc Stein in December of last year.
All four players mentioned in the report are still on the roster, plus Carl Landry and Reggie Evans.
There simply aren't enough minutes to go around in the Sacramento Kings frontcourt, and Thompson is too talented to be the odd man out. Even though he still started 61 games in 2013-14, he played only 24.5 minutes per contest, missing out on opportunities to show off his rebounding chops and prowess from mid-range zones.
Plus, there's the matter of his contract, which was a five-year deal for $30 million signed back in the 2012 offseason. He's being paid too much money to sit on the bench for large portions of the game, but his salary situation is reasonable enough that he wouldn't be viewed as an albatross on another team.
There should already be interest in Thompson around the league, but the cries will only come more often and grow ever louder if Williams proves to be a late-blooming prospect, living up to at least some of his formerly lofty potential.
Taj Gibson, Chicago Bulls
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I feel bad for Taj Gibson.
He's worked quite hard to get to this point in his career, and he absolutely thrived coming off the bench for the Chicago Bulls last season. With an improved offensive game and the same defensive chops he's boasted for quite some time, he trailed only Jamal Crawford in the Sixth Man of the Year voting and also received fringe consideration for Most Improved Player.
This was going to be the year he stepped into the starting lineup, as Carlos Boozer was no longer a key piece for the Bulls. But after the incumbent starting power forward was amnestied and picked up by the Lakers, Chicago added Pau Gasol.
Now, it's Gasol and Joakim Noah in the starting five, while Gibson is set to resume his traditional role off the bench. Well, unless he gets traded to a team like the Toronto Raptors, as Joel Brigham of Basketball Insiders speculated could happen if general manager Masai Ujiri goes looking for a new starting 4:
"There aren’t a lot of top-flight power forwards available right now (everybody’s super optimistic about where they stand right now), but there’s no way the Raptors are going to get someone great without giving up some assets. Masai has been great about accumulating picks, so he’s got some things to work with, but getting a top-flight PF won’t be easy. Taj Gibson might become available, and he’d be a fun guy to have in there.
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Gibson deserves a shot in the spotlight, but life isn't always fair. To his credit, No. 22 hasn't pushed for any sort of move this offseason.
"All I can do is be a player and represent whatever team I'm wearing their jersey," he told ESPN Chicago's Nick Friedell in July while his name was being floated in Kevin Love conversations. "But I hope I don't have to leave Chicago any time soon. This is like my first home."
But does that change with Gasol in town?
Aggrey Sam of CSN Chicago reported the following in September: "Privately, Gibson isn't too thrilled with the prospect of continuing to be a reserve, according to multiple people familiar with the situation, but the upbeat, team-first player values winning and chemistry too much to make it an issue or distraction."
It's hard to hold in feelings for too long.
Gerald Green, Phoenix Suns
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During the 2013-14 season, Gerald Green averaged 15.8 points, 3.4 rebounds and 1.5 assists per game, shooting 44.5 percent from the field and a stellar 40 percent from beyond the arc. Not only did he put together a player efficiency rating of 16.5, according to Basketball-Reference.com, but Play Finder also shows that he was one of nine qualified players in the NBA to shoot at least 40 percent from downtown while lofting up five or more long-range attempts per game.
Add in some defensive ability, and you're looking at a player who used his breakout season to make his ill-fated campaign with the Indiana Pacers a distant memory and establish himself as one of the most underrated contributors in the league.
In fact, he was the No. 76 player the NBA last season.
But what's his role now?
The Phoenix Suns have a three-headed monster at point guard in Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe and Isaiah Thomas, and that will eat up nearly all of the minutes at shooting guard as well, given Jeff Hornacek's dual-PG stylings. Zoran Dragic needs minutes on the perimeter, and both T.J. Warren and P.J. Tucker will play at the 3.
It's a crowded competition for playing time at the wing positions, and the Suns may end up having to part ways with one of their key contributors. The 1-guards and the younger Dragic are off the table, and it's tough to imagine Warren leaving the desert so soon after he was made a first-round pick.
Tucker is an option, but with his three-game suspension looming for a "super extreme DUI," the character issues (even if this was an isolated incident) might drive down the asking price. Putting Green on the market makes the most sense, especially if Phoenix can get a back-to-the-basket scorer in return.
Harrison Barnes, Golden State Warriors
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At what point do the Golden State Warriors cut bait with Harrison Barnes?
With the exception of a 12-game stint in the 2013 postseason that concluded his rookie year, his first two go-rounds in the Association have been largely disappointing. And it's not as though he's just suffering from a lack of playing time, as his per-minute numbers are lackluster and his PER dropped to 9.8 as a sophomore.
Maybe he'll blossom under Steve Kerr, freed from Mark Jackson's lack of creativity on the sidelines. But the Dubs have better options (Draymond Green and a healthy Brandon Rush) at small forward, and Barnes isn't exactly making noise during the preseason.
According to RealGM.com, the former North Carolina standout has averaged 9.8 points, 3.2 rebounds and 0.8 assists per game through his first six preseason outings. His PER is still a below-average 13.3, despite the many role players who suit up in larger doses before the regular season begins making it easier to produce higher numbers.
There still seems to be a pervasive high-upside perception of Barnes' game, but Golden State has to take advantage of that before all the excitement dries up.
Iman Shumpert, New York Knicks
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Phil Jackson hasn't been in the New York Knicks' front office for even a calendar year, but he's already eliminated any chance of concern that he's not an aggressive personnel manager. The ring-winning legend has made surprising trades and gotten himself into a strong draft, and now there's no telling what happens next.
Why not trade away a supposed wunderkind who's tied to the failed old regime?
Iman Shumpert still hasn't established himself as anything more than a shooting guard filled with hype, though he remains an intriguing player because he could be such a special two-way star. He's been an adequate starter during his three preseason stints, but the blossoming hasn't happened yet.
No. 21 has found himself on the chopping block before, notably when the notion of him being sent to the Denver Nuggets for a pre-World Cup version of Kenneth Faried was being bandied about. This summer, an anonymous source told ESPN New York's Ian Begley, "They’re working on trying to make a move in the backcourt," referring to the Knicks, of course.
Begley, who also noted that Tim Hardaway Jr. was "virtually untouchable," had this to say about the other options:
"Smith, the 2012-13 Sixth Man Award winner, has a player option in his contract for $6.4 million for the 2015-16 season and is coming off what he called the worst season of his NBA career. As such, it is unclear how much interest he could draw on the open market.
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Shumpert is viewed as a strong defender but couldn’t find his comfort zone on offense last season. He was made available in several trade proposals throughout the season. His value at this point in the trade market is also unclear.
It's been a little while since the flat-topped wingman was a prominent part of the rumor mill. But don't worry.
Just like Arnold Schwarzenegger, he'll be back.
