Is Florida State a Lock to Finish Undefeated?

If the goal of the 2014 college football season is to be one of the final four teams for the playoff, then the regular season has been March Madness. Florida State specifically has managed to survive and advance. 

The Seminoles did it in overtime against Clemson without starting quarterback Jameis Winston and defensive end Mario Edwards on September 20. They did it again the following week in a come-from-behind win against North Carolina State.

And they did it again in a 31-27 win over Notre Dame on Saturday, going toe-to-toe with the Irish before taking their first lead midway through the fourth quarter. 

Then, Florida State hung on—with a little help from an offensive pass interference call. 

Good call? Bad call? It doesn't matter now. Just survive and advance. 

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To say that Florida State is merely surviving and advancing implies the Seminoles aren't very good. Nothing could be further from the truth.

The Noles have three wins over Top 25 teams, a reigning Heisman winner in Winston and NFL-caliber talent both on the field and waiting in the wings. There's a weekly debate about whether Florida State should be the No. 1 team in the country. 

However, it doesn't matter how much talent a team has or how good the coaching staff is. It's hard to win every game in a season, let alone 23 in a row like Florida State has dating back to 2012. It's no secret that the Seminoles aren't as dominant as they were in 2013, nor is it an insult to say they've received some breaks along the way. 

Will Florida State keep its undefeated streak going through the rest of the season? There's no way to definitively answer that, but let's put it this way: It wouldn't be surprising if the answer is no. 

Look around the rest of the college football landscape. Kansas State (5-1, 3-0) is leading the Big 12 standings. Minnesota (6-1, 3-0) is the Big Ten West leader. Ole Miss (7-0, 4-0) and Mississippi State (6-0, 3-0) are tied for first in the SEC West and are two of the three best teams in the country.

Little has gone according to plan, which is a big reason why this particular season has been so entertaining. The fact that Florida State leads the ACC Atlantic, like it was projected to do, is almost an anomaly compared to the rest of college football. 

As Dan Wetzel of Yahoo Sports tweets, the playoff has not diminished the value of the regular season. On the contrary, it's as strong as it's ever been. 

The possibility of more chaos is almost a guarantee. There are three undefeated power teams remaining: Florida State, Mississippi State and Ole Miss. At most, only two of those teams will be undefeated by season's end. 

Florida State will undoubtedly be favored in all of its remaining games: At Louisville (Oct. 30), Virginia (Nov. 8), at Miami (Nov. 15), Boston College (Nov. 22) and Florida (Nov. 29). Does that mean the Seminoles will finish undefeated? If this season has taught us anything, it's that there are no truly dominant teams; everyone is vulnerable in some form or fashion. 

A road trip at Louisville on a Thursday night seems like a prime formula for an upset, but a rivalry game at Miami could be tricky as well. There's no way to know in this sport when things are going to be turned upside down. That's part of the appeal, and part of why coaches lose their hair so quickly. 

But know this: If Florida State does finish undefeated, it is a lock for the playoff as either a No. 1 or No. 2 seed. 

"Hopefully, we can get that No. 1 spot back," Florida State linebacker Terrance Smith told Andy Staples of Sports Illustrated. "They took it from us, so we had to win this game."

Being No. 1 in the Associated Press and/or Amway coaches polls doesn't matter since those polls technically aren't taken into account with the selection committee. Being No. 1 in the committee's eyes is the only thing that matters for geographical purposes since the semifinal sites are at the Sugar Bowl and Rose Bowl. 

Even then, games are all about matchups. A No. 1 vs. No. 4 game doesn't automatically favor the top-seeded team. 

The way this season has gone, a one-loss team shouldn't be taken out of the playoff conversation. In that vein, a one-loss Florida State wouldn't necessarily be out of the final four.

But Florida State controls its destiny. That's a great place to be considering the number of upsets 2014 has produced. What the Seminoles undoubtedly know, however, is that no game is a sure thing. Every win going forward is a good one. 

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football.