Is Big 12 Playing Itself out of the Playoff Picture?
At one point or another this season, half of the Big 12 has controlled its destiny to a conference title and likely a playoff berth.
So that begs the question: Will there be a best man standing come season's end, or will the Big 12 implode on itself enough to cost the league a spot in the coveted final four?
At this point in the 2014-15 campaign, there are six teams that, if they win out, would not only win the Big 12 but would finish the season with, at most, two losses and be in the conversation for a playoff berth.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Those teams are Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU and West Virginia.
Currently, the only undefeated team in conference play left is the Wildcats, who upended Oklahoma on Saturday. But the Bears, Cowboys, Horned Frogs and Mountaineers each have one loss—and each still have a matchup with K-State left on the docket.
Five of those squads, the exception being the Cowboys, have at least one win over another team on that list, making the Big 12 impossible to prognosticate halfway through the year.
Here's a breakdown of all the head-to-head matchups between these six teams from now until the regular season ends.
| Oct. 25 | WVU @ Oklahoma State |
| Nov. 1 | Oklahoma State @ Kansas State |
| Nov. 1 | TCU @ WVU |
| Nov. 8 | Kansas State @ TCU |
| Nov. 8 | Baylor @ Oklahoma |
| Nov. 20 | Kansas State @ WVU |
| Nov. 22 | Oklahoma State @ Baylor |
| Dec. 6 | Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma |
| Dec. 6 | Kansas State @ Baylor |
Now let's take a look at all six teams' prognoses for the rest of the season.
Baylor Bears
The Bears are hoping that a loss in Morgantown doesn't doom themselves like it did to the Cowboys last year, where an early-season loss to the Mountaineers ended up effectively costing Oklahoma State a Big 12 title.
Still, Saturday's upset loss is still the only black mark on their record, and it came to a team whose only losses are to Alabama and Oklahoma.
Baylor will also have plenty of chances to regroup at home, with Waco matchups against Oklahoma State and K-State. Plus, the Bears already have a win over TCU notched.
The biggest question mark left on the schedule is a road trip to Norman on Nov. 8. The Sooners will be hungry to earn a marquis win to get back on track after a disastrous October, and the Bears could be the victims that Bob Stoops is looking for.
Kansas State
Halfway through the season, it's the Wildcats that stand atop the Big 12 standings. All it'll take for them to represent the Big 12 as its champions in the playoffs is to win.
But the schedule-makers didn't do Bill Snyder any favors. They still have to face the four teams in the conference with just one loss in league play, with only Oklahoma State being at home.
So that creates a double-edged sword for K-State. Wins at Waco, Morgantown and Ft. Worth almost assure the Wildcats a conference championship, if not a playoff berth. But K-State could also very conceivably lose those three games and all but fall off the face of the college football map.
Oklahoma
Until three weeks ago, nobody could get enough of the Oklahoma Sooners. They were the darlings of the Big 12, sitting undefeated and seemingly on a victory lap en route to the playoffs.
But then TCU and K-State happened, and now the Sooners' playoff hopes are all but demolished.
If the Sooners win out, they still won't be guaranteed a Big 12 title. But that'll give them wins over Baylor and Oklahoma State, which should look good on a resume.
A two-loss team getting into the playoffs is a long shot, and in the Sooners' case, it'll take a miracle for them to get in.
Oklahoma State
While the Cowboys are in the same boat as their Bedlam brothers with two losses, their prognosis is actually healthier for a Big 12 title and playoff berth because of who they've played, and who's still left.
The only two losses for Oklahoma State are outside of Stillwater to Florida State and TCU.
So the Cowboys still control their own destiny to a Big 12 title. Like K-State though, their toughest games are all on the road, as they travel to Manhattan, Norman and Waco.
Also, next week's matchup against WVU will likely kill the conference-title and playoff hopes of the loser.
TCU
Behind Baylor and K-State, TCU holds the most control over how their season will finish, and whether they make the playoffs.
Saturday's drubbing of Oklahoma State could very well have righted the ship after last week's fourth-quarter collapse to Baylor.
TCU also has arguably the easiest schedule left, with WVU and K-State being the only contenders left. And they get the Wildcats at home.
The Horned Frogs survived far and away the hardest part of their schedule with just one loss. Now it's up to them to finish the job.
WVU
West Virginia's situation is very much tantamount to Oklahoma State's, and sure enough, they play each other next week.
The Mountaineers have two losses, but they came against Alabama and Oklahoma. So winning out their schedule would guarantee WVU, who just upset Baylor, a Big 12 title with wins over Oklahoma State, K-State and TCU.
WVU's next two weeks will define them, as they travel to Stillwater then host TCU.
If they somehow survive that, they get the privilege of getting to host the Wildcats. But the Mountaineers have to win out to even dream of a chance of making the playoffs.
Prediction
Although K-State is the last unscathed team in the Big 12, there's another squad who's road leads to the playoffs, and it's TCU.
With the hardest chunk of their schedule out of the way, the Horned Frogs just have to knock off K-State at home to all but secure the inside track to the conference title and the playoffs.
Baylor still has games against Oklahoma and K-State, and it's unlikely they won't suffer a loss in one of those games.
The Wildcats also have a brutal schedule left, with road trips to Baylor, WVU and TCU. Again, unlikely they'll survive.
That leaves TCU as the last team standing. It's no guarantee that a one-loss team, with plenty of SEC and ACC teams still battling it out, will make the playoffs out of the Big 12. But if the league champion ends up surviving one of the wildest years in league history with one loss, the committee will almost have no choice but to put them in.
If the champion ends up having two losses, the committee's decision on the Big 12 winner will depend on its view of the Big 12 as a whole.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
