5 Bold Predictions for the San Francisco 49ers' Week 7 Matchup
The San Francisco 49ers face one of their toughest challenges of the season this Sunday, taking on the 4-1 Denver Broncos on a short week on the road with seemingly half of their defensive starters among the walking wounded.
The Broncos come in on a tear, with their only loss being to the Seattle Seahawks in Seattle in overtime. San Francisco fans can attest to how hard it is to beat the Seahawks at CenturyLink, so they have to acknowledge what an impressive season Denver has had so far—there probably isn’t a better team in football right now.
The 49ers, meanwhile, have righted their ship after their second consecutive 1-2 start to a season, riding a three-game win streak of their own. While they’ve yet to kick it into full gear this season, they certainly are in a better position than they were just a couple of weeks ago.
Can the 49ers steal a victory in Denver, moving to 5-2 going into their bye? Or will they have to content themselves with a winning record and a week off to heal from their bumps and bruises?
Let’s take a look at the game, and make some bold predictions on what will and will not happen on Sunday night.
Peyton Manning Will Break Brett Favre’s Touchdown Record
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Peyton Manning comes into this week’s game three touchdowns short of breaking Brett Favre’s record of 508 touchdown passes. It’s bound to happen sooner or later, but the only question is whether or not it will happen this week.
Interestingly, Brett Favre’s official home page keeps a running total of touchdown passes, frozen in mid-2010, giving no credit for Manning’s most recent 116 touchdown passes. On one corner of the internet, then, Favre will remain champion forever.
Back in reality, however, Manning has thrown three or more touchdown passes in 88 of his career 245 regular-season starts, including four out of five games this season. That’s by far an NFL record.
The 49ers, meanwhile, have only allowed three or more passing touchdowns in eight games under Jim Harbaugh, including the playoffs. It’s a rarity, but the quality of the quarterback hasn’t seemed to matter—they’ve allowed big games to future Hall of Famers like Drew Brees and to career backups like John Skelton.
Peyton Manning is better than John Skelton. Manning has said that he’s not concentrating on the record, but it has to be there in the back of his mind—and the sooner it’s over with, the sooner the media can move on to something else. In the trailers for the game last week, you could be forgiven for thinking the Broncos were playing a scrimmage this week, as they mentioned Manning’s touchdown record about a hundred times and very rarely mentioned the 49ers.
I think Manning finds a way to get it over and done with on Sunday night in the fourth quarter so it doesn’t become a storyline as they get ready to face the San Diego Chargers next week.
Chris Borland Will Make a Big Play
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With Patrick Willis, at best, day-to-day, and Michael Wilhoite already filling in for the injured NaVorro Bowman, there is a very good chance rookie linebacker Chris Borland will see a lot of action this week. That’s obviously a downgrade, but Borland was very productive in college and looked pretty sharp against the St. Louis Rams in the second half last week.
Borland was in the backfield on three of his five pass-rushing snaps and deflected two more balls in pass coverage. That’s pretty impressive for someone coming in with essentially no preparation time. With a full week to get ready and prepare, I think Borland’s going to make an impact on this game.
Maybe it will be with a well-timed inside rush, blowing past center Manny Ramirez to take down Manning for a crucial sack. Maybe it will be covering Julius Thomas on a crossing route, batting down a touchdown or even intercepting the ball outright. Maybe it will be a forced fumble on Ronnie Hillman—Borland did have 14 at Wisconsin, after all.
One way or another, I think you’ll hear Borland’s name in a very positive light on Sunday, even if it’s only for one big play.
Colin Kaepernick Will Rush for 100 Yards
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The Broncos are pretty nervous about containing Colin Kaepernick. Manning said as much about the leading rushing quarterback in the NFL, noting that "The way he runs the ball, he's not running to get first downs, he's running to score.”
The Broncos have actually done alright against rushing quarterbacks so far this season—they held Russell Wilson to 40 yards, Alex Smith to 42 and Geno Smith to 11.
None of those players, however, has been as explosive on the ground as Colin Kaepernick has been. Kaepernick also tends to show up biggest when the lights are brightest—his two previous 100-yard rushing days have come in the playoffs against the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks.
This obviously isn’t a playoff game, but it is a big game under the lights. There’s a bye week the week after, too, so even if Kaepernick takes a little more of a pounding than usual, he’ll have a full week to recover before having to get back on the field.
With the 49ers the underdogs, I think you’ll see offensive coordinator Greg Roman pull out all the stops in this one, and that means a heavy day on the ground for Kaepernick. With the Broncos keying in to stop Frank Gore, there might just be enough room on the read-option and bootlegs for Kaepernick to pull off some big runs.
When the dust is cleared, I think he’ll be over 100 yards for the day.
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Julius Thomas Will Go Wild
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With both NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis out, the 49ers are going to struggle to cover tight end Julius Thomas.
Jared Cook of the Rams was the first tight end to go for over 50 receiving yards against San Francisco this season, catching four passes for 74 yards. However, Patrick Willis has been the main man in charge of shutting down tight ends this season. Julius Thomas against Willis would have been a bad matchup for San Francisco; Thomas against Michael Wilhoite or Chris Borland could be a disaster.
Thomas is averaging five receptions and 55 yards per game this season, and he’s gone over 50 yards in each of the last two games. He’s yet to be held out of the end zone, either—Manning looks for him in the red zone, and usually finds him.
With the 49ers banged up on defense and under the lights of Sunday Night Football, I think Thomas has his second 100-yard receiving day of the season as he catches two of Manning’s three touchdown passes.
The Denver Broncos Win by Multiple Scores
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There are just too many factors working against the 49ers for me to predict them to upset Denver this week. The injuries, the short week, the quality of the opponent, the road trip—everything adds up to a 49ers loss.
It’s certainly not a must-win game for the 49ers—they’ll still be in control of their own playoff fate even with a loss, and a loss to an AFC team is the best possible one for their tiebreakers. Still, 5-2 teams make the playoffs 75 percent of the time, while 4-3 teams only make it 50 percent of the time, so the win would be really useful.
I just don’t see it happening, though. It’s not that the 49ers have no chance of pulling this one off—they’re better than a league-average team and shouldn’t be entirely counted out of any matchup against any team, even on the road. It just has all the factors for being one of those “survive and live to play another day” kind of games.
The two-game road trip off of the bye, against New Orleans and the New York Giants, will be a far more crucial series of games for San Francisco’s playoff hopes than this game will be. While a win here would be a huge statement that the 49ers are Super Bowl contenders, I think we’ll have to wait for the team to get back to full strength before you can realistically expect an upset over the defending AFC champions.
Final Score: Denver 38, San Francisco 13
Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him @BryKno on twitter.
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