Matt Asiata's Low Fantasy Value Makes Him a Great Bargain for Week 7

If you are looking for the definition of a buy-low fantasy candidate heading into Week 7, Minnesota Vikings running back Matt Asiata is the name you will find.

Asiata's fantasy value has been all over the map this season. He wasn't even on the register when the season started, moved onto the radar after having 84 total yards and one touchdown against New England in Week 2 and exploded after a three-touchdown performance against Atlanta two weeks later. 

Now, Asiata is back off the radar because he's recorded just six points over the last two weeks and had the fantasy-killing total of minus-five rushing yards on two carries against Detroit in Week 6.

It would be easy to write Asiata off. He's been slumping of late to the point where Jerick McKinnon was given the starting job against the Lions, and he is more of a power runner at 234 pounds than the speedy 208-pound rookie.

Just looking at the numbers from Week 6 suggests that McKinnon is going to be the man moving forward. Rotoworld's stats indicate that McKinnon played on 48 of Minnesota's offensive snaps compared to 15 for Asiata.

According to Master Tesfatsion of the Star Tribune, McKinnon was the only Vikings running back in Week 6 to get double-digit touches:

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The rookie has stepped up over the last three games since he was challenged by Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer to make the most of his limited opportunities. He received five carries in his first three games but has had 36 in the last three games.

Asiata didn’t hit double digits in carries for the first time since running back Adrian Peterson’s absence after the season opener against the Rams.

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If Asiata was a stock, he would be...well, pretty much like every other stock in this country—plummeting on an hourly basis. Fortunately, the third-year running back is a human who will go through peaks and valleys but keep getting opportunities.

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

Those opportunities figure to come as soon as in Week 7 against Buffalo.

How is that possible with the Bills leading the NFL in run defense? Wouldn't the Vikings want to keep going with the perceived hot hand in this scenario?

Let's start with the latter question first. No, what happened last week appears to be an anomaly based on rumors floating around. According to Christopher Harris of ESPN.com, the speculation was always to use the faster McKinnon against Detroit's fierce defensive line.

"I've heard speculation that the Vikings made this switch because they were concerned about the Detroit Lions' front four, and they'll go right back to Asiata next week," he wrote.

Head coach Mike Zimmer all but confirmed that talk during a conference call with reporters on Wednesday, via Joe Buscaglia of WGR 550 Radio in Buffalo:

As for the former question about Buffalo's run defense, this is one instance where the numbers don't tell the whole story. The Bills' pass defense has been bad—26th in the NFL with 269.2 yards allowed per game—and faced the third-most passes in the league (228).

The Vikings can't come out slinging the ball around because that's not how their offense succeeds.

Teddy Bridgewater has had a lot put on his plate, going from 20 attempts against New Orleans to 30 against Atlanta to 37 against Detroit, and the results have been mixed.

Asiata is becoming increasingly available in fantasy leagues. He's been the most dropped running back in the last seven days, going from owned in 85 percent of all leagues to 69.7.

It seems from Zimmer's comments that the Vikings want to make a concerted effort to run the ball against Buffalo after last week's debacle in Detroit. Asiata gives Minnesota a powerful, physical presence in the backfield—not to mention his ability to block—so expect a return to 12-15 rushes and a handful of catches.

Asiata is also a good value play this week because he's Minnesota's goal-line runner. The Vikings have six rushing touchdowns this season, and he's accounted for half of them.

The Bills aren't going to keep the Vikings out of the end zone like Detroit did last week, so expect at least one red-zone score from Asiata.

Fantasy information courtesy of ESPN.com.

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