Jets vs. Patriots: Breaking Down New York's Game Plan
The New York Jets may be 1-5, but no record can take away from the bitter rivalry between them and the New England Patriots.
Motivation is never at a shortage when it comes to these particular biannual contests, but this year's first matchup has a particularly sensitive layer of intrigue with star cornerback Darrelle Revis wearing Patriots colors against his former team.
Both teams enter this game headed in completely opposite directions. After a disastrous hiccup against the Kansas City Chiefs just two weeks ago, the Patriots appear to be closer to their normal, dominant selves after two straight wins in convincing fashion—all while the Jets continue to lose on a weekly basis.
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The Jets have the far inferior record, but this game is not set up to be a blowout their records may indicate. If Rex Ryan can match up his personnel properly on defense while Geno Smith keeps the offense afloat, the Jets stand a quality chance to come away with the upset.
Shutting Down Tom Brady's Favorite Targets
It took them the better part of four years, but the Jets finally have found the antidote for terror tight end Rob Gronkowski: safety Antonio Allen.
Now back in his comfortable role at safety (he spent the first portion of the season at cornerback), the Jets can use Allen just as they did last year to match up with Gronkowski in man-to-man coverage.
In last year's win against the Patriots, the Jets were confident enough to cover Gronkowski with Allen with little, if any, help for the vast majority of the game. With the young Allen only getting better, there is no reason as to why he should be asked to do anything less.
Allen's success in coverage against Gronkowski is key, as it will dictate how the Jets are able to line up against their other receivers. Containing Gronkowski with just one player will allow the Jets to pay more attention to the likes of Julian Edelman, Shane Vereen and Tim Wright.
Edelman will give the Jets the most trouble as Tom Brady's go-to man on third-down situations. In last week's game against the Buffalo Bills, Edelman ate up single coverage, evidenced by this third-down conversion.
The Bills are in press-man coverage with one single-high safety—a common look in Rex Ryan's defenses. The man coverage is of quality on the outside, but a perfectly timed throw on this well-run curl route makes it impossible for the defender to get to.
The cornerback was put in a difficult position, as he did not have the safety help that would have allowed him to play more aggressively, and Edelman took advantage.
The Jets will need to give Edelman more than just single man-to-man coverage, especially given their mounting injuries at cornerback. Using two-man bracket concepts is the only way to slow down this dynamic passing combination, which can only be done if Allen is able to contain Gronkowski without needing much help.
Attack the Interior Offensive Line
Just about the only place on the field where the Jets have a decisive advantage in personnel is the Jets' defensive front against the Patriots' offensive line, especially along the interior.
According to the latest practice report provided by Lee Schechter for ESPN Boston, two of the Patriots' starting offensive linemen, center Bryan Stork and left guard Dan Connolly, missed practice on Tuesday dealing with a concussion (both players missed time in last week's game as well).
That sound you hear is the mouths of defensive linemen Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson beginning to salivate.
The Jets should not need to overthink how they should go about attacking this exposed weakness—simply give the replacements for Connolly and Stork—Ryan Wendell and Josh Kline—a heavy dose of Wilkerson and Richardson until they prove they are up to the task.
Josh Kline was particularly weak filling in at left guard. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), he surrendered two hits and a quarterback hurry last week against the Buffalo Bills.
Not only are the Patriots exposed along the interior of their line, but Brady, like all pure pocket passers, is particularly vulnerable against interior pressure. Elite passers like Brady can step away from edge pressure, but when pressure is coming up the middle, there is nowhere to hide.
Interior pressure is a big reason why the Patriots were blown out so badly by the Chiefs three weeks ago. On this play, outside linebacker Justin Houston gets the sack, but it is Allen Bailey who ends the play before it ever had a chance by beating the right guard badly off the snap. Even if he identified the situation in time, Stork would not have been able to help his guard in time.
If the Jets can get consistent pressure up the middle, figuring out how to cover Edelman and Gronkowski will hardly be relevant—without protection, Brady will not be able to find his receivers no matter how big of a matchup advantage they have.
Test Brandon Browner
Given the current state of their team morale, the last thing the Jets need to see is Darrelle Revis grabbing one of Geno Smith's errant passes to remind them of how things used to be in their secondary.
After shutting down A.J. Green two weeks ago, the former Jet has looked much more like his old self in recent weeks, shutting down receivers just as he did during his heydays in green and white.
Instead, offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg needs to see for himself if Brandon Browner is anywhere near his usual form in his first game back from suspension.
A former member of the Seattle Seahawks' "Legion of Boom," Browner is a long, physical cornerback who resembles Revis' old partner with the Jets, Antonio Cromartie. However, Browner's body is several months behind everyone else's when it comes to getting used to playing a full-speed NFL game, and Mornhinweg needs to take advantage.
Browner was also mysteriously listed on last week's injury report and was deactivated for the game against the Bills, raising questions as to exactly how prepared Browner was to join the Patriots defense from a mental standpoint:
Assuming Revis follows Eric Decker all over the formation, the Jets will need to lean heavily on receiver Jeremy Kerley. While not nearly as big as Browner, Kerley's short-area quickness will give the lankier Browner fits in the short-to-intermediate routes.
On the heels of a 10-catch performance, the Jets should not be hesitant to call Jace Amaro's number if the Patriots decide to employ Browner on him either. The rookie tight end is obviously not as quick as Kerley, but he is the only member of the Jets pass-catchers who can overpower Browner from a pure size standpoint.
Even though the Patriots appear to be back on track to win the division yet again, there are a lot of matchup advantages the Jets can use to bundle up the Patriots offense while moving the ball against their improved defense.
This plan will take some heroic efforts from a few individuals, specifically from Allen and the entire defensive line, in addition to quality quarterback play to pull off the upset.
Finding a way to pull off this upset and get their second win of the season may not be enough to get the Jets back to relevancy when it comes to playoff seeding, but it will at least give this downtrodden team something to feel good about for the first time in a long time.
Advanced statistics provided by ProFootballFocus.com (subscription required).
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