Predicting the Biggest Breakout Fantasy Basketball Stars for 2014-15 Season
In the fantasy realm, there is an objective feeling to nearly ever subjective sports term.
The phrase "breakout fantasy basketball star" brings a pretty clear image to a fantasy enthusiast's mind. The tangible details—height, weight, position—might be blurred, but a picture is still painted of domination across multiple categories.
Whether these stars do a lot of different things well or a very select group of things at an elite level, all of them will have major effects on any fantasy team fortunate enough to employ them. They could play a starring support role on a 10-team roster or even fill the feature spot in deeper leagues, but most of them haven't yet been priced accordingly.
Yet is a key word here. All of these stocks are soaring, and they will only continue to increase once the games—and, more importantly, the statistics—start to actually count.
If you're lucky enough to get in ahead of these price curves, you could be sitting on the fantasy goldmine that is getting top-tier production out of a lower-level investment. If that ship has already sailed, you could still land a breakout star more than capable of considerably outperforming his draft position.
Either way, these five players are primed to shatter their fantasy ceilings over the course of the 2014-15 campaign.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, SG/SF, Milwaukee Bucks
1 of 5
2013-14 Notable Numbers: 6.8 PTS, 4.4 REB, 0.5 3PM, 1.9 AST, 0.8 STL, 0.8 BLK
Yahoo Average Draft Position: 111.6
Point Freak. It's no longer a fun summer league storyline or a reason for anyone to give the Milwaukee Bucks a spin in the video game world.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is getting the starting nod at point for Milwaukee's tilt with the Cleveland Cavaliers on Tuesday, per Charles F. Gardner of the Journal Sentinel.
"I think his first gift is he likes to make plays for his teammates," coach Jason Kidd said of the 19-year-old, per Gardner. "That's one of his strengths and we've got to find a way to put him in that position."
Kidd, who scored a three-year deal from Milwaukee over the summer, has the security needed to experiment. And no one should benefit more from those experiments than the wildly intriguing Antetokounmpo.
So much of the Greek Freak's allure lies in the unknown, but here's what his rookie season revealed: He's still physically growing, he plays with an incredible motor and his versatility appears at both ends of the floor. It's that versatility—combined with Kidd's creativity—that should spark Antetokounmpo's rise to fantasy stardom.
He nearly joined the group of eight players who averaged at least one steal and one block last season. And none of those eight are auditioning for a floor general gig. He should be a multi-category stud with the chance to show well in nearly all of them and even dominate a few.
Andre Drummond, C, Detroit Pistons
2 of 5
2013-14 Notable Numbers: 13.5 PTS, 13.2 REB, 1.6 BLK, 1.2 STL, 62.3 FG%, 41.8 FT%
Yahoo Average Draft Position: 34.9
If Stan Van Gundy didn't believe in Andre Drummond's future, the former wouldn't have jumped at the opportunity to coach the latter this summer.
Van Gundy did, of course, and netted himself control of the Detroit Pistons basketball operations during the process as well. So, in case there were any questions before, the franchise is now fully committed to developing Drummond and every bit of his drool-worthy potential.
For fantasy owners, that means the big man should welcome some new numbers to his stat sheet while continuing to own the categories he controlled last season.
Through three preseason games, he's putting up 16.3 points on 10.7 shots a night, both of which are improvements from last year. Even more impressive is that he's compiling these numbers in only 27.3 minutes per game, five fewer than he logged in 2013-14.
He is already a stabilizing force on the glass and at the defensive end. His free-throw shooting might always be an issue, but his field-goal percentage helps ease that sting. That stat-sheet stain could even be forgotten if he consistently takes advantage of an offensive post game he said was improved over the offseason.
"It's a confidence thing," he said, per Pistons.com's Keith Langlois. "It's always been there, but it's been an issue getting it out of me, so I worked really hard this summer to bring that part of my game out and play with confidence when I do get the ball in the post."
Drummond's defense and rebounding are the reasons he is flying off draft boards early, but his increased offensive impact will make that draft position seem low by season's end.
Kawhi Leonard, SG/SF, San Antonio Spurs
3 of 5
2013-14 Notable Numbers: 12.8 PTS, 6.2 REB, 2.0 AST, 1.7 STL, 0.8 BLK, 1.0 3PM, 52.2 FG%
Yahoo Average Draft Position: 21.0
It shouldn't be possible to win a Finals MVP and still fly under the radar, but remember, Kawhi Leonard plays for the San Antonio Spurs. Typical basketball rules can't be applied in the Alamo City.
Judging by Leonard's season-long statistics, his draft value seems to be in line with his production. But consider how he compiled those numbers and why he might go about elevating them across the board, and suddenly he feels underappreciated in a perfectly Spursian sense.
After the All-Star break, Leonard put up 14.7 points, 6.5 boards, 2.4 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.2 blocks. Those who have been paying attention will note that tallying just a steal and a block together per game would put him in exclusive statistical company.
Add in the rest of those numbers, though, and he's nearly standing on his own. Only five players averaged better than six boards, two assists, one steal and one block. None of those five shot 50 percent from the field, and only one, Paul Millsap, made one three a night.
Leonard helps in so many different areas, and this season could yield an uptick in all of them. The 23-year-old, who saw only 29.1 minutes a night, should be in line for a heavier workload as the Spurs' elder stars attempt to evade Father Time once again.
Leonard seems ready for whatever the Spurs throw his way, and he could have the added incentive of playing for a new contract if he can't work out an extension with the Spurs before October 31. That is how it remains a possibility that a Finals MVP could follow up the award with a true breakout season.
Victor Oladipo, PG/SG, Orlando Magic
4 of 5
2013-14 Notable Numbers: 13.8 PTS, 4.1 AST, 4.1 REB, 1.6 STL, 0.9 3PM, 41.9 FG%
Yahoo Average Draft Position: 60.6
The numbers might seem to suggest otherwise, but Victor Oladipo impressed during his rookie season for the Orlando Magic.
Remember, he played largely out of position (59 percent of his minutes came at point guard) on a 23-win team that ran the NBA's second-least efficient offense. Despite all that, he was one of only 18 players to post per-game marks of at least 13 points, four assists, four rebounds and one assist.
Had he played long enough to hit his per-36-minute averages (16.0 points, 4.8 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 1.9 steals), his stat sheet would have been matched by only one player: fantasy stud Russell Westbrook.
"Victor Oladipo is going to be an elite fantasy option sooner rather than later..." wrote Brian McKitish special to ESPN.com. "It's clear that he has the potential to be a dominant multi-category threat in fantasy leagues. I'd be shocked if he didn't make the leap to 35 minutes per game next season, and return second- or third-round value."
Not only should Oladipo see the floor more often this season, but he should be significantly better positioned for more efficient production. The Magic have the playmakers (Elfrid Payton, Luke Ridnour, Peyton Siva) to keep from overburdening Oladipo with creating for others, and they have more shooting (Channing Frye, Ben Gordon, Evan Fournier) to free up driving lanes for Oladipo to attack the basket.
Orlando has eased Oladipo through a recovery from his sprained MCL, per Josh Robbins of the Orlando Sentinel. The injury isn't seen as a long-term concern, and it could actually help fantasy owners if it winds up chasing others away on draft night.
Oladipo's motor and minutes should help him hold on to, if not increase, his statistical volume. As his percentages start to reflect his improved situation, his fantasy value should skyrocket.
Jonas Valanciunas, C, Toronto Raptors
5 of 5
2013-14 Notable Numbers: 11.3 PTS, 8.8 REB, 0.9 BLK, 53.1 FG%, 76.2 FT%
Yahoo Average Draft Position: 97.1
Toronto Raptors center Jonas Valanciunas could be an opportunity away from fantasy stardom. He might be a new defensive commitment from something even sweeter.
The 22-year-old had just one weakness in his stat sheet last season: 28.2 minutes played. He averaged more than 30 minutes in two different months: December and April. Over those 22 games, he went for 14.0 points and 10.0 rebounds. Couple those numbers with a strong success rate at the free-throw line, and he had some incredibly attractive offensive fantasy credentials.
But fantasy owners want more than a block per night from their center, especially one up for consideration as a star. Apparently, the Raptors agree.
"One of the big focuses for us to advance in the playoffs is that he's got to be the best rim protector..." said Raptors assistant Bill Bayno, per Eric Koreen of the National Post. "At times he was great at it last year. ... But we want it every night, 82 games."
How valuable could shot blocking be to Valanciunas? Only eight players averaged 14-plus points and 10-plus boards last season. Add 1.5 blocks to the equation—a number that feels attainable with a longer leash and improved focus—and that number falls to only two: Anthony Davis and Dwight Howard. And unlike Howard, remember, Valanciunas won't drag your team down at the charity stripe.
If he gets more consistent minutes, he's on his way to becoming a fantasy stud. If he makes the most of his floor time on both sides of the ball, he has the tools to be elite.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
