What's Behind Matthew Stafford's Maddening Inconsistency?

Despite an impressive 4-2 start to the season, the Detroit Lions offense is sputtering below expectations. Much of the criticism falls on enigmatic quarterback Matthew Stafford and his inconsistent performance.

Stafford has been all over the map this season. At times, notably against the New York teams, No. 9 has been outstanding. Other times, including the Week 6 win in Minnesota, he was ineffective and erratic.

Game	Comp %	Y/A	TD/INT	QB Rating
NYG	68.8	10.8	2/0	125.3
CAR	56.3	6.0	1/1	72.5
GB	64.7	7.2	0/2	61.6
NYJ	70.6	8.6	2/0	116.4
BUF	58.1	7.5	1/1	78.8
MIN	57.6	5.6	1/0	83.5

One of the factors has been the rotating cast of injuries to his receivers and running backs. Calvin Johnson, Reggie Bush, Joseph Fauria, Joique Bell and Theo Riddick have all missed at least one game.

It's not just the games they're missing, however. They're also losing valuable practice opportunities to work on the intricacies of the offense. New offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi overhauled the scheme, and it's clear Stafford has yet to get fully comfortable in the new system.

"

Second watch observations: Reggie Bush and Matthew Stafford were reading different books, let alone not on the same page.

— Justin Rogers (@Justin_Rogers) October 6, 2014"

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

Some of the issue is the complexity of the offense in front of him. As creative as Lombardi's scheme can be, it also has a lot of moving parts and demands proper execution and harmony among the 11 players. When one piece breaks down, it impacts the entire offense but especially the man dependant upon the trains being on time.

Perhaps a simplification of some concepts is in order. Opposing teams have caught onto the vulnerabilities of the offensive machine. Here's an example from the Jets game in Week 4 where the unnecessarily complex blocking scheme gets Stafford buried.

NFL Game Rewind

Tight end Brandon Pettigrew is lined up on the right side of the formation. His responsibility on the play? Fly across the formation to pick off the outside linebacker, Quinton Coples.

Meanwhile, center Dominic Raiola is supposed to get two steps to his right immediately after snapping the ball to pick off defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson. The entire line is sliding protection to the right, and Raiola is depending on right guard Larry Warford to at least put a shoulder into Richardson to hold the talented pass-rusher for a count.

NFL Game Rewind

Pettigrew gives a yeoman effort but simply is not fast enough to beat Coples to the edge. The scheme here calls for a lumbering tight end to make seven steps and gather himself enough to make a solid block on a speedier outside linebacker making four steps to the same point.

Richardson easily slips in between the moving parts, splitting the double-team. While Pettigrew steers his man high around Stafford, it still forces the quarterback to step forward...right into Richardson.

There are examples of plays like this littering Lions games. It's hard to blame Stafford for being uncomfortable behind what appears to be intentionally organized chaos. He's been sacked more than any quarterback in the league. 

"

Matthew Stafford has been sacked 21 times this year. Was sacked 23 times all last year.

— Kyle Meinke (@kmeinke) October 12, 2014"

The increased pressure and regression of his offensive line certainly impact Stafford's consistency. It's a legitimate excuse, but what's frustrating is that Stafford has shown even this year he can be very effective when pressured. 

Inconsistent play has dogged his entire career, though he's never been so variable from game to game. In the first nine games last year, his QB rating was never higher than 108.3 or lower than 83.3. As noted in the chart above, he's got just one game in this range thus far. 

There are some positives to be found in his vacillating play. He's throwing the ball away more frequently, living for another down instead of trying to force the ball into risky situations. Some of those 21 sacks so far have been a result of plays where Stafford would have put the ball up for grabs in years prior. 

Ty Schalter explored this more conservative Stafford in a recent column here at Bleacher Report, and it rings true. He's maturing into a different style of quarterback, and we are witnessing the growing pains. 

Ironically, he's practicing better mechanics. One of the big knocks on him throughout his career has been his erratic throwing platforms, often launching balls sidearm or needlessly off his back foot. Witness this tweet from last December:

"

Stafford has a multi-million dollar arm, yet he wastes it with sidearm throws & poor footwork. Fundamentals are killing Detroit

— Scott Dochterman (@ScottDochterman) December 17, 2013"

By and large, those poor mechanics are gone this year. This was a clear point of emphasis for new coach Jim Caldwell, who worked with one of the most fundamentally perfect quarterbacks in NFL history in Peyton Manning.

"

Bill Polian said Jim Caldwell is a "stickler on fundamentals" so Stafford will have to work hard every day like Peyton did.

— Paula Pasche (@paulapasche) March 5, 2014"

The bigger question now is this: When will he come out the other end of this new journey? Will he ever be a more consistent, reliable week-to-week performer? After all, Drew Brees has been a bedrock of consistency in the same offense in New Orleans.

It's hard to project the answers to those questions. My suspicion is that Matthew Stafford is who Matthew Stafford will always be—a gifted thrower dogged by bouts of inaccuracy. His fluctuations should subside as the team around him gets healthy and the core group gets more acclimated to the new offense, but don't ever expect him to be a model of consistency. 

All statistics are from Pro Football Reference.