Dissecting Most Crucial Matchups in the Vikings' Week 7 Contest with Buffalo
After suffering two divisional losses in consecutive weeks, the Minnesota Vikings (2-4) have fallen to last place in the NFC North.
Most recently, the Vikings offense was completely overwhelmed by a stifling Detroit Lions defensive line, which led to a 17-3 home loss at TCF Bank Stadium. Minnesota will square off against the Buffalo Bills (3-3) and another formidable defensive line this coming Sunday at Ralph Wilson Stadium.
If the Vikings are to contend for a playoff spot this season, they will need to put a halt to their recent downward spiral immediately. While a win over the Bills will take a strong effort by the entire team, the following highlighted matchups will play an important role in deciding the victor.
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LB Anthony Barr vs. RB Fred Jackson
Anthony Barr has been extremely impressive during his rookie season in the NFL. Thought to be a work in progress when selected by the Vikings ninth overall during the 2014 NFL draft, Barr has shown week-to-week improvement in nearly every area of his game.
According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Barr has totaled 30 tackles, two sacks, 18 stops and a batted pass. He ranks among the leaders at his position in each of these statistical categories.
While he has shown improvement, Barr remains a bit of a liability in pass coverage. He has been targeted 31 times, allowing 29 receptions and 219 receiving yards. Barr has also allowed opposing receivers 185 yards after the catch—the second-highest total surrendered by an outside linebacker in 2014.
His coverage skills will be put to the test quite often this weekend, as running back Fred Jackson is a top target in the Bills' passing attack.
Jackson ranks in the top five among running backs this season in targets (39), receiving yards (245), receptions (30) and routes run (133). Jeff Russo of WKBW reaffirms Jackson's importance in the Bills' passing attack:
"#Bills Fred Jackson is the teams leading receiver.. Hauls in his fifth catch of the half
— Jeff Russo (@JeffRussoWKBW) October 5, 2014"
Jackson has caught passes in a number of ways this season, but a large sum of his statistical totals have come on screen plays.
On this particular Week 5 play against the Lions, Jackson began the play in pass protection before slipping out to the left side of the formation. The completion went for 26 yards, as Jackson sprang free into the open field.
Barr has defended screen passes, such as this one, fairly well this season; however, he has had some problems defending running backs in man-to-man coverage, which Jackson has also had plenty of success with this season.
During the Vikings' Week 3 matchup against the New Orleans Saints, Barr was forced into one-on-one coverage with running back Pierre Thomas on a few occasions.
Here, Thomas began the play directly to the right of quarterback Drew Brees in shotgun formation before meeting up with Barr in the middle of the field. Thomas would break right, leaving Barr in a vulnerable position, before hauling in a pass that would have resulted in a touchdown if not for cornerback Josh Robinson.
Barr has the skills and physical tools necessary to win this in-game matchup. However, his lack of experience in pass coverage may prove costly against the veteran Jackson. If the Vikings and Barr can find a way to make Jackson a non-factor as a receiver, the Bills will certainly have problems moving the ball on offense.
RB Jerick McKinnon vs. NT Marcell Dareus
After receiving the bulk of the carries against the Lions last week, McKinnon likely will be the Vikings' go-to running back moving forward. The third-round draft selection has performed well this season, improving on a consistent basis.
He will face a tough test this week against arguably the best nose tackle in the NFL.
"BN Blitz: Marcell Dareus named AFC Defensive Player of the Week http://t.co/5Yb3fhvpws via @TheBuffaloNews
— Jay Skurski (@JaySkurski) October 8, 2014"
While he is better known for his pass-rushing ability, Dareus has excelled as a run-stopper in his fourth NFL season.
According to Pro Football Focus, Dareus has been on the field for 103 run snaps and has recorded 11 tackles and three assists in run defense. Most impressively, however, he leads all defensive tackles with 15 stops and has recorded only one missed tackle. As a result, it should come as no surprise that PFF has given him an overall grade of plus-4.5 in run defense this season.
Vikings center John Sullivan and left guard Charlie Johnson will have their hands full attempting to open rushing lanes for McKinnon, as Dareus most often lines up in the A-gap to the left of the center.
In this Week 4 play against the Houston Texans, Dareus began his assault in the aforementioned A-gap, between the center and left guard. As shown above, he bull rushes through before running back Arian Foster had even received the handoff. Even Foster, who is widely considered one of the best at his position, had no chance on this particular play.
McKinnon, who is in his rookie season with the Vikings, has enjoyed success rushing the football up the middle. However, it is a bit of a small sample size.
| Attempts | Rushing Yards | Average | Missed Tackles |
| 14 | 121 | 8.6 | 2 |
The highlight of McKinnon's season to date came on a 55-yard rush to the middle right against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 4.
In this instance, Sullivan and fullback Jerome Felton were able to open up a gaping hole for McKinnon to run through. This will likely not be the case this coming weekend, given Dareus' block-shedding ability.
The Bills are extremely hard to run against. According to ESPN.com, Buffalo has allowed a per-carry average of only 2.8, which ranks first in the NFL. On top of this, it has yet to allow a rush attempt of more than 16 yards.
A large portion of the Bills' success against the run is thanks to Dareus and fellow defensive tackle Kyle Williams. While it will certainly be difficult, McKinnon and the Vikings must establish some sort of rushing attack against Dareus and the Bills, or this game could look eerily similar to the team's loss to Detroit last weekend.
LT Matt Kalil vs. DE Jerry Hughes
A large portion of the Vikings' struggles this season can be attributed to poor offensive line play. This all begins with left tackle Matt Kalil, who has consistently struggled in both run and pass protection all season long.
Kalil's issues first became apparent during the Vikings' Week 2 matchup against the New England Patriots when he was faced with the difficult task of containing top edge-rusher Chandler Jones.
Jones gave Kalil problems throughout the game. The most notable instance, as shown above, occurred when he blew through the former first-round pick, en route to a sack of quarterback Matt Cassel.
Kalil has not only been the worst offensive lineman on the Vikings this season but also the worst tackle in the entire NFL, as noted by Chris Tomasson of the St. Paul Pioneer Press:
"Matt Kalil is back is in his customary spot. Rated by Pro Football Focus the worst tackle in the NFL.
— Chris Tomasson (@christomasson) October 14, 2014"
According to Pro Football Focus, Kalil has been responsible for seven sacks, three quarterback hits and 16 hurries for a total of an NFL-worst 26 pressures. Naturally, Kalil also owns the worst overall PFF grade at left tackle (minus-18.2).
Unfortunately, Kalil's job will not be getting any easier this weekend, as he will spend the majority of his time protecting against defensive end Jerry Hughes. Surprisingly, it has been Hughes, not Mario Williams, squaring off against opposing teams' left tackles.
While it is Williams who receives most of the attention on the Buffalo defensive line, Hughes has quietly put together an impressive season. He has recorded five sacks, five quarterback hits and 13 hurries for the second-best quarterback pressures total in the NFL of 23.
Similar to how Jones is used by the Patriots, Hughes frequently attacks from a stand-up position, using force or finesse to drive through or around opposing offensive linemen.
In this Week 5 example, Hughes drives Lions left tackle Riley Reiff backward, collapsing the left side of the pocket around quarterback Matthew Stafford. Hughes would ultimately be rewarded with a sack on this play.
Hughes will be another tough test, but given Kalil's natural ability, ideal size and past success, this should appear to be a manageable matchup for the 2012 Pro Bowler. Through six weeks, however, Kalil has been nothing like the player he was in 2012, which is concerning given the Vikings' need to win this matchup.
Kalil hit rock bottom last week against the Lions, allowing rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to be sacked four times. At this point, it is a very realistic possibility that he may be playing for his job in the coming weeks. He cannot afford a repeat performance of last weekend against Hughes and the Bills.
Both the Vikings and Bills have assets on their defensive lines and liabilities on their offensive lines. As a result, the winner of this contest could very easily be the team that receives the best overall line play.
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