Jets vs. Patriots: What Are Experts Saying About New England?

Sitting alone atop the AFC East for the first time this season, the New England Patriots have re-established themselves as the class of their division.  In playing their second consecutive well-rounded effort against a Buffalo Bills squad on the upswing, the Pats have illustrated that they still warrant acknowledgement as an AFC contender.

Of course, division banners have not been the standard in Foxborough for years, as the Pats are now attempting to reinsert themselves in the conversation as one of the league's top Super Bowl contenders.  Even amid a plethora of injuries, this Thursday's game against the cratering New York Jets represents the type of contest a championship-caliber team should handle.

Still, two well-rounded efforts against the Bills and Cincinnati Bengals do not necessarily signal that the Patriots are "back."  An upcoming gauntlet in the second half of the season will provide the true litmus test for how legitimate the Pats are this season, but for now, let's examine the most noteworthy mainstream perspectives to illuminate how the national media views the Patriots after six games.

Kiernan Hogan: Brady's Best Performance

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Statistically, it is clear that Sunday's victory was Tom Brady's finest performance of the season.  As Pro Football Focus' Kiernan Hogan notes in reviewing PFF's game-charting statistics, the difference stemmed from Brady's prolific deep-ball accuracy:

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Brady’s season-best +4.7 overall grade was even more impressive given the Patriots’ complete inability to run the ball. He finished 7-of-11 for 201 yards on passes thrown 10+ yards, and had a QB Rating of 151.3 when not pressured.

After starting the season 2-of-19 on deep passes (20+ yards in the air), Brady went 3-of-4 for 132 yards and two touchdowns yesterday. His perfectly thrown strike to Brian Tyms at 12:30 of the 2nd quarter beat triple coverage for a 43 yard touchdown.

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Indeed, I noted in my postgame grades that Brady's newfound perimeter accuracy could be the catalyst that restores the Pats offense as one of the league's most versatile units.  Hogan noted Brady's deep-ball stats above, but perhaps more importantly, Brady was 5-of-7 for 141 yards and a touchdown on passes outside the numbers that traveled at least 10 yards, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

The Patriots have always had the intermediate hooks and seams under control, even at their worst.  But in attempting to move away from a Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski-centric passing attack, the Pats have finally stumbled upon a pair of potential "X" receiver solutions in Brandon LaFell and Brian Tyms.

According to PFF, Brady has posted a 112.6 quarterback rating when targeting LaFell this season, by far the highest mark of any New England receiver with more than two targets.  And as Tyms demonstrated on his 43-yard touchdown, he possesses the speed and size to establish position and high-point the ball in jump-ball situations.

It is hardly a coincidence that Brady's purported demise has dissipated as his supporting cast has sprung to life.  No quarterback is capable of carrying a team alone, but the past two weeks have illustrated how Brady remains a weapon capable of elevating a merely adequate corps to elite levels.

Brian Costello: Turnover Advantage to Patriots

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Jets are tied for 31st in the NFL in turnover differential at -9. The Patriots, the next opponent, is tied for 1st at +9 #nyj

— Brian Costello (@BrianCoz) October 13, 2014"

Even if the injury-depleted Pats suffer from a sloppy performance on the short week, New England can likely bank on a few game-changing gifts from the Jets' moribund offense.  The Jets have fumbled twice per game this season, the second-worst mark in the league, while Geno Smith and Michael Vick have combined for a 3.5 percent interception rate that ranks eighth-worst in the league.

Expect New England to play plenty of press coverage to disrupt the timing of New York's relatively limited receiving corps.  Eric Decker, who has experienced notorious struggles with press coverage, figures to draw Darrelle Revis on the majority of the snaps, though the Pats might not see Decker as a player who warrants solo lock coverage from Revis.

New York's best hope is to stifle the Stevan Ridley-less running game and force Brady into plenty of 3rd-and-long situations.  Brady has been relatively protective this season, even under duress for much of the opening month, as his current 1.0 percent interception rate would be his lowest mark since his league-leading 0.8 percent mark in 2010.

Expect Rex Ryan to empty out his playbook with plenty of byzantine blitz schemes to try to create a strip-sack, especially early in the game.  If Brady receives the opportunity to exploit the likes of Darrin Walls and Phillip Adams, the Jets will likely suffer their sixth consecutive loss.

Bill Barnwell: Domino Effect from Mayo's Injury

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Of all New England's injuries this year, none have been more damaging than Jerod Mayo's torn ACL that will sideline him the rest of the season.  As Grantland's Bill Barnwell illuminates, replacing Mayo simply creates issues at other positions because of New England's lack of depth at linebacker:

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He tore his pectoral muscle in Week 6 last season, and the Patriots spent the rest of the year shuffling their linebackers around in an attempt to find a combination that would at least emulate Mayo’s athleticism and range of abilities. And that’s without considering that Mayo moved to the middle linebacker spot to replace Brandon Spikes after playing the weak side last year. If anything, his role has become even more integral to New England’s success on defense.

Jamie Collins will likely have to make the same shift to take over for Mayo, leaving another hole on the weak side. With Dont’a Hightower missing the last two games with a knee injury, the Patriots are getting perilously thin at linebacker.

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The Pats are going to have to play the same game of "Whac-a-Mole" at linebacker that they unsuccessfully attempted last season. 

It's clear that Hightower has found his niche as a versatile Joker type, so New England would be unwise to mess with that formula and pigeonhole him to a more limited role.  Collins possesses the same range and fluidity as Mayo, but asking him to shoulder such a heavy burden would likely lead to regression from the promising second-year linebacker, much like Hightower experienced in 2013.

The best solution might entail playing more "big nickel" three-safety sets.  In Patrick Chung, Duron Harmon and Tavon Wilson, New England possesses an abundance of bigger safeties who are more comfortable in the box than in a deep center field role.  Chung in particular has impressed in base package duty, so the Pats could conceivably turn him into a hybrid linebacker-safety type who has three-down value.

Nonetheless, none of that can replicate Mayo's steadiness, well-rounded skill set or leadership in the huddle.  Mayo's loss alone will not submarine New England's impressive defense, but it certainly reduces their overall margin of error if they hope to remain Super Bowl contenders.

Sigmund Bloom: No Right Answer at RB

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honestly, Jonas Gray may end up being the right answer RT @Jeff_LJ_Lloyd besides Vereen obviously, would you rather White or Bolden from NE?

— Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom) October 13, 2014"

Bloom, a writer at the terrific fantasy site FootballGuys.com, encapsulates the uncertainty at running back following Stevan Ridley's season-ending injury.  Unlike years past, the Patriots have no natural replacement for Ridley, who has provided underrated value as a steady between-the-tackles early-down option.

To be clear, it is not as though Ridley has performed at an All-Pro level this season.  Entering Week 6, Football Outsiders ranked Ridley 23rd in DVOA and 21st in DYAR among running backs, meaning that he has not been particularly effective on either a per-carry or cumulative basis. 

But it does not seem entirely fair to pin the blame on Ridley, given the offensive line's pervasive issues over the first month.  With adequate blocking, Ridley finished 11th and eighth among running backs in DVOA over the past two seasons.

Still, the biggest issue with the Patriots is not Ridley himself, but rather their lack of a viable replacement for his power-speed combination.  Unlike past seasons, when Bill Belichick could turn to BenJarvus Green-Ellis or LeGarrette Blount, the Pats' best options this season are James White and Jonas Gray.

White has been a healthy scratch in four of New England's five games this season, while Gray is a third-year player who has yet to make it onto an active game-day roster.  Green-Ellis remains a free agent after Cincy cut him, but the aging "Law Firm" recorded just 3.5 yards per carry last season, as his plodding skill set essentially equates him to an older Trent Richardson at this point.

For all the criticism Ridley's ball security has endured, 59 players have fumbled more frequently than the Pats back since he entered the league in 2011, per Pro-Football-Reference.  The drop-off from an above-average starter to a replacement-level one is extremely steep, and Ridley's absence might finally be the unfortunate catalyst that causes him to receive some measure of appreciation.

Mike Sando: Pats Offense Set If Gronk Stays Healthy

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Despite Ridley's loss, however, New England's depth at tight end and wide receiver means that they can manufacture offense through scheming to their personnel.  Astute observers like ESPNBoston.com's Mike Reiss noted after the game that the Pats were successful in forcing Buffalo into base personnel, then exploiting mismatches in the passing game. 

ESPN's Mike Sando agreed with that prevailing local opinion, suggesting that the Pats have solved their early-season issues with skill-position support.  However, Sando (subscription required) does note that New England remains perilously dependent on the tenuous health of Rob Gronkowski:

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The primary question in my mind -- whether the team has sufficient weapons at wide receiver -- will remain in the background now that Gronkowski is rounding into form and the pass protection has stabilized. He gives the passing game a dimension no one else on the roster can provide.

A key variable is whether Gronkowski can stay healthy for enough games in a row. After playing in 46 consecutive games to open his career, Gronkowski has missed five, played in two, missed six, played in seven, missed five and then played in six this season.

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Gronkowski did suffer an injury scare to his surgically repaired forearm on Sunday, though there were no apparent implications from that episode.  Nonetheless, seeing Gronk amble off the field was a sobering reminder that New England's offensive versatility could vanish at any moment.

The Pats might appear slightly better equipped to deal with a potential Gronk loss after trading for Tim Wright.  But it's really Gronkowski's excellence as a blocker that provides the hidden value, as it forces the defense into a Catch-22 of defending two-tight end sets in base or sub-package personnel. 

Without Gronkowski's dual threat, that dilemma is gone.  Thus, even as the good times roll on for Patriots fans, New England's status as a Super Bowl contender will always remain precarious so long as they rely heavily on Gronkowski.