USC vs. Colorado Complete Game Preview

No. 22-ranked USC can extend its lead atop the Pac-12 South win column Saturday against an opponent the Trojans have beaten by an average of 29 points per game over the last three seasons: Colorado.

The Buffaloes' futility since joining the Pac-12 in 2011 is well-documented. They have just three conference wins in that time, and last year's four-win campaign was the program's best since coming over from the Big 12.

Still, Colorado has made strides in head coach Mike MacIntyre's second season. The Buffs play an uptempo, pass-happy offensive style that has helped produce monster numbers for one of the nation's leading receivers, Nelson Spruce.

There's virtually no bigger splash Colorado can make than spoiling the homecoming game for a nationally ranked opponent that also happens to be the Pac-12's most iconic program. 

Avoiding the letdown after a marquee win at Arizona is critical for USC to keep its hope of a Pac-12 championship intact.

When: Saturday, Oct. 18; 6 p.m. ET 

Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

TV: Pac-12 Networks

USC Keys to Victory

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Assert Dominance Early

Belief is critical to any big underdog trying to score a monumental upset. USC must squash any belief Colorado has that it can hang with the Trojans.

This is something the Trojans failed to do in their loss at Boston College. After building an initial 10-0 lead, the USC offense went dormant. Boston College began to wear down the Trojans defense and eventually broke through big in the second half.

Had USC been able to build its first-half lead to a few touchdowns, the Eagles would have been left playing catch-up, which does not play to an option-based offense's strength. 

USC needs to mount scoring drives early and keep the defensive pressure cranked up throughout the first half. Colorado does not give up many sacks—defenses have gotten to quarterback Sefo Liufau just eight times on the year—but the Trojans' defensive front must shrink his pocket early and make him force throws. 

Liufau may have been sacked just eight times this season, but he's thrown seven interceptions. An early takeaway or two parlayed into points should take the Buffaloes out of it early.  

The sooner USC's talent advantage is asserted, the quicker Colorado's hopes will be deflated. 

Run Ralphie Out of the Coliseum 

Colorado's trademark at home games is its running of Ralphie, the live buffalo mascot. USC can make its visitor feel right at home Saturday by establishing a run game reminiscent of a stampeding Ralphie. 

Colorado comes in with the nation's No. 106-ranked defense in rushing yards surrendered per carry at an even five. That's awfully close to USC running back Javorius "Buck" Allen's per-carry average of 5.8.  

USC head coach Steve Sarkisian can overwhelm the Colorado defense with a steady diet of Allen carrying the football early. Run the ball until the Buffaloes show they can stop it. 

Once defensive coordinator Kent Baer is forced to sell out against the run, USC quarterback Cody Kessler will have his receivers working in isolation to unleash the home run ball.   

Colorado Keys to Victory

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Come Out Firing

Any hope Colorado has of scoring an upset in the Coliseum is contingent on the Buffaloes setting the pace with their sometimes potent passing attack. 

When Liufau is dialed in, he's one of the more dangerous passers in the conference. His ability to put the USC defense back on its heels is vital for the Buffaloes, and the most effective way Liufau can do that is with a series of quick routes right out of the gate.

Colorado isn’t going beat USC with explosive plays—not early, anyway. The big-yardage opportunities could come after a flurry of quick jabs, passes ranging from five to eight yards that move the chains and give Colorado some momentum.

Liufau must make these throws across his entire receiver corps in order to open one-on-one opportunities for Spruce. And it’s through Spruce that the Buffs’ long plays can come.

Create Some Luck

The right bounces are necessary for any upset-minded team. Certainly Colorado needs some luck, but the Buffaloes are best served Saturday creating their own luck.

Turnovers offer one path to an upset bid, but takeaways have come in short supply for USC opponents. Kessler didn’t throw an interception until a week ago, and the Trojans have lost just three fumbles all year.

Colorado’s hope for momentum-swinging plays may come on special teams. USC has had some issues with special teams on the season, both in kickoffs and punts.

The Trojans gave up a kickoff return for a touchdown to Oregon State, and an injury to long snapper Zach Smith forced Sarkisian to use Kessler as a punter near midfield against Arizona State.

Either setting up Liufau and the Buffs offense with a short field or scoring touchdowns on special teams can give Colorado the edge it needs against an opponent that otherwise has it overmatched across the board.

USC Players to Watch

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Offense

RB Javorius "Buck" Allen

In a breakout second half to the 2013 season, Allen's most productive rushing performance came against Colorado: 21 carries for 149 yards with three touchdowns.

Allen since eclipsed that showing last week.

In USC's win at Arizona, he rushed for a new career-high 202 yards and scored three touchdowns. It was Allen's third consecutive game with a rushing touchdown, and second with multiple scores on the ground.

Allen is playing like a Heisman Trophy candidate—so much so, ReignOfTroy.com points out his current rushing output is the best for any USC running back since Heisman winner Marcus Allen in 1981: 

"

#USC's Buck Allen has the most rushing yards through six games since Marcus Allen. How's he compare to Bush & White? http://t.co/Y25vptiVd1

— Reign of Troy (@ReignofTroy) October 13, 2014"

QB Cody Kessler

Cody Kessler was quietly putting up impressive statistics through USC's first five games, but he took a step back at Arizona. 

Beyond just throwing his first interception of the season, Kessler seemed to rush through his progressions and miss a few open targets. 

"We tried more to throw the ball down the field," Sarkisian said in his weekly press conference call Sunday. "It wasn't where we want to be yet. We'll continue to try to do that, because I think it makes us more effective."

The Colorado defense has proven to be susceptible to giving up the long touchdown pass. And, with 15 scoring throws given up this season, the Buffaloes rank No. 116 nationally.   

Defense

CB Adoree' Jackson

Freshman phenom Adoree' Jackson's role on defense has increased significantly, to the point that Sarkisian has not used him at wide receiver in recent weeks. 

That seems to suit Jackson's skill set just fine, as he's flourishing in his primary duties at cornerback. 

Jackson was sidelined for some of the second half at Arizona, but the Trojans could use him at full strength this week against Colorado's pass-happy offense—particularly because Jackson might provide the best matchup with Spruce.  

DL Delvon Simmons

USC needed an outstanding performance from its defensive line to slow Arizona's potent offense. Reliable All-American Leonard Williams came through with a pair of sacks and eight tackles, but Williams got some of the best contributions from his teammates he's received all year.

Leading the way was Delvon Simmons.

Simmons made seven tackles and clogged running lanes, which helped USC limit Arizona to just 2.7 yards per rush.

Establishing dominance up front will be crucial to USC rattling Liufau and shutting down Colorado's passing attack, and Simmons can play a key role in that effort.  

Colorado Players to Watch

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Offense

QB Sefo Liufau

Second-year quarterback Liufau is beginning to force his name into the conversation among the Pac-12's many prolific passers, such as Cal's Jared Goff and Washington State's Connor Halliday.

Liufau ranks No. 11 nationally with 314.5 passing yards per game, and he's completing a robust 65.3 percent of his attempts.

Last year facing USC as a true freshman with just a few starts under his belt, Liufau struggled mightily. He completed just 17 of 33 passes and gained the majority of his 188 yards in the fourth quarter—after USC had built a 37-7 lead.

As a sophomore, Liufau is making strides. MacIntyre said on last Tuesday's Pac-12 coaches call he would like to see the quarterback improve in the red zone.

Otherwise: "Sefo is getting better and better," MacIntyre said. 

As a more seasoned playmaker, Liufau has an opportunity at redemption against the Trojans. Colorado needs him to have a great game in order to compete, as well.  

WR Nelson Spruce

With 10 touchdown receptions on the year, no receiver is a more dangerous scoring threat than Spruce. The junior has stepped seamlessly into the vacancy previous Buffs star wideout Paul Richardson left.

In fact, Spruce has actually put up superior individual numbers to Richardson through six games a year ago. Richardson had six touchdowns at this juncture to Spruce's 10. David Faux notes:

"

You ever hear of Nelson Spruce? Here's why you should. pic.twitter.com/8lUzyBJy6j

— David Faux (@DFauxy) October 10, 2014 "

Spruce is coming off his worst performance of the year: six catches for just 35 yards and no scores against Oregon State. MacIntyre will be itching to get his star going once again at USC's expense.  

Defense

LB Addison Gillam

A freshman All-American in 2013, Addison Gillam is the leader of the Colorado defense in 2014. 

Gillam leads the Buffs with 52 tackles. He’s the team’s most active run-pursuer, which makes him of particular importance this week, up against the Pac-12’s leading rusher in Allen.

DE Derek McCartney

A year ago, it was Gillam at linebacker. This season, Derek McCartney is Colorado’s breakthrough freshman star on defense.

McCartney leads the Buffaloes with four sacks, which also give him the second-most tackles for loss among all Colorado defenders.

McCartney’s ability to bring pressure off the edge is crucial if the Buffs are going to have any chance to generate much-needed turnovers.

What They're Saying

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USC 

"If we can get close to 20 percent on offense of all of our plays as explosive plays [runs of 10 yards or more; passes of 15 yards or more], that’s a really good number," Sarkisian said. "We’d love to hold our opponent to less than 10 percent of their plays [being explosive plays].

“We calculated 17.3 percent offensively [as] explosive plays [against Arizona]…that’s a pretty good number. We held Arizona to 4.9 percent explosive plays. That’s a great number."

“I never thought it was over; last game [vs. Arizona State] showed that. We learned that we had to play every second of the game," Williams said on finishing games, via USCTrojans.com.  

Colorado 

Wide receiver Bryce Bobo on Colorado’s attitude after losing consecutive conference games by single digits, via CUBuffs.com:

"

Right now we see a couple heads hanging down. Coming from a loss from Cal, and now another hard loss, it just kind of puts us down. We all got together in the huddle and said how we can’t let this affect us because we have another game coming up. There’s no way that we can let this get us down right now.

"

“We’ve been in every game going into the fourth quarter and had a chance in every single game," MacIntyre said. "That hasn’t happened around here in a long time. We are getting better. And now, we’ve got to punch through.

“That’s what’s so frustrating about our last two games [losses vs. Cal and Oregon State]: We had opportunities to win and didn’t get it done. Our kids taste it. They understand they can win every game."

Prediction

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The Colorado team visiting the Coliseum Saturday isn’t like the 2012 squad that came into Los Angeles and left with a 50-6 lump on its head.

The Buffaloes are showing life on offense and taking baby steps defensively. MacIntyre and his staff are doing a good job rebuilding a once-proud program that fell on hard times for approaching a decade.

Despite showing progress under MacIntyre, however, Colorado still has a long way to go before it's a contender in the Pac-12. USC is a contender to win both the South and the league crown, as it proved with its win last week at Arizona.

The Trojans can head into the back-half of the season with a lead in the Pac-12 South, but they cannot afford a letdown against a much younger and less-talented opponent. Motivation should not be hard to come by this Saturday as a result.   

Look for Allen to rack up big numbers as his Heisman candidacy gains momentum, and USC gives its alumni reason to celebrate homecoming in style.

Prediction: USC 42, Colorado 20 

Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise cited. Statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com.