10 NBA Players Set for Regression in 2014-15
Brooklyn Nets point guard Deron Williams became an overnight poster child for the dreaded step back.
And we're not talking about step-back jumpers.
The nine-year veteran posted points (14.3 per game) and assists (6.1 per game) averages that were the lowest since his rookie season all the way back in 2005-06. Williams' slide had as much to do with fewer minutes and touches as anything else, but that's little consolation for a franchise that purchased his services with a $98 million contract in 2012.
That kind of money comes with expectations.
Any number of players could follow in Williams' regressive footsteps during the 2014-15 season. We're taking a look at 10 of them—some stars and some not so much.
For the record, most of the players listed here aren't at risk of deteriorating skills. A number of factors interfere with production—from in-house competition for minutes to new roles on new teams.
But if you're on the lookout for players whose production may slip this season, here are 10 places to start.
Arron Afflalo—SG, Denver Nuggets
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Arron Afflalo is coming off a season in which he averaged a career-high 18.2 points in 35 minutes per game.
He's also coming off a season with the Orlando Magic.
In other words, the seven-year veteran benefited from some inflated numbers—a natural byproduct of being a good player on a bad, rebuilding team. Ordinarily known as a two-way threat who earns minutes by doing all the little things, Afflalo looked like a borderline star last season—at least if you forgot who he was playing for.
The Denver Nuggets—whom Afflalo played with from 2009-2012—are an entirely different story.
This is a deep team with all kinds of options on the wing. It's a team with scorers such as Ty Lawson, Danilo Gallinari, Kenneth Faried and Wilson Chandler—scorers who could very well precede Afflalo in the rotation's pecking order.
The 28-year-old remains in the prime of his career, and there's little doubt he'll make a profound impact in his return to Denver. Just don't expect that impact to involve the kind of numbers he posted last season.
D.J. Augustin—G, Detroit Pistons
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D.J. Augustin was in the right place at the right time last season.
The 26-year-old spark plug amassed an average of 30.4 minutes in 61 games with the Chicago Bulls, posting 14.9 points and five assists per contest with the club. Derrick Rose's absence from all but 10 games paved the way for Augustin to shine like he rarely has, ultimately enticing the Detroit Pistons to secure his services this summer with a two-year, $6 million deal.
Augustin's reemergence also may have had something to do with Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau.
"Not only did he give me the opportunity, he actually brought my love for the game back," Augustin said of Thibodeau in September, according to NBA.com's Keith Langlois. "You kind of lose that a little bit, your passion for the game, throughout the years in the NBA, depending on playing time and different situations you may be put in.
"Coach Thibs, I owe him a lot. I give him credit for bringing my passion for the game back and wanting to learn and play hard."
Augustin may take a step back without that inspiration around, especially given the role he's likely to adopt in Detroit—one that likely involves backing up starter Brandon Jennings.
The Texas product should still have opportunities to make an impact, but it's hard to see him finding 30 minutes per game this season.
Avery Bradley—G, Boston Celtics
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Four-year veteran Avery Bradley's career is clearly headed in the right direction, but last season's career high of 14.9 points per game might fool you into believing he's destined to become a primary scorer for the rebuilding Boston Celtics.
Unfortunately, three personnel variables may get in the way.
First, point guard Rajon Rondo should be healthy after playing just 30 games last season. While Rondo and Bradley can coexist in the same backcourt, the former will have the ball in his hands far more often this season—potentially limiting the latter's touches in the process.
Second, the Celtics drafted guard Marcus Smart with the sixth overall pick in this summer's draft. He'll see minutes behind Rondo, but there's a good chance he also plays alongside him from time to time—cutting into Bradley's hold on the position.
Third, Boston acquired shooting guard Marcus Thompson via trade this summer, providing head coach Brad Stevens the electric kind of sixth man who could earn ample minutes as the team looks to improve an offense that ranked 27th in offensive efficiency last season with just 99.7 points per 100 possessions, according to Hollinger Stats.
In short, Bradley will have some competition—and that's almost certainly a good thing for the Celtics, even if it's not the best thing for the 23-year-old's numbers.
Kevin Durant—SF, Oklahoma City Thunder
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Kevin Durant may very well have another MVP season in him, but the points and assists may not come quite as easily as they did a season ago.
The 26-year-old posted career highs in scoring (32 points per game) and assists (5.5 per game) throughout a campaign in which sidekick Russell Westbrook played in just 46 games. Durant will put up big numbers with or without Westbrook around, but it's telling that his scoring average was closer to 28 points per game in each of the three seasons prior to 2013-14.
That may be a more realistic mark going forward.
Westbrook unapologetically looks for his own offense, especially when playing at full strength. There's little doubt his heavy usage will cut into Durant's otherwise remarkable production.
The emergence of guard Reggie Jackson may have a similar effect, especially with the possibility that Westbrook and Jackson will be paired together as the starting backcourt.
From a competitive standpoint, this all comes as welcome news to the Oklahoma City Thunder—even if it means back-to-back MVP honors become a bit less likely.
Al Jefferson—C, Charlotte Hornets
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It might not be such a bad thing for Charlotte Hornets center Al Jefferson to accept a slight reduction in playing time.
Coming off his most productive campaign since 2008-09, that probably strikes some as counterintuitive. But last season's heavy workload (of 35 minutes per contest) may have taken its toll on Jefferson, who was limited by a nagging plantar fascia injury during Charlotte's opening round against the Miami Heat in the playoffs.
"He's a tough hombre," opposing head coach Erik Spoelstra conceded to reporters during the series.
But Charlotte would be wise not to test that toughness more than necessary.
The Hornets' hopes of making a deeper playoff run may be linked to a more durable Jefferson, which in turn could translate into fewer minutes and a decline from the 21.8 points and 10.8 rebounds he averaged per game last season.
Moreover, the 29-year-old may inherit more modest responsibilities, thanks to this summer's acquisition of swingman Lance Stephenson, a four-year veteran poised to become a borderline star after his breakout campaign with the Indiana Pacers.
Jefferson's varied skill set won't go anywhere anytime soon, but his impressive stat line may be slightly less formidable this season.
Kyle Lowry—PG, Toronto Raptors
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Kyle Lowry cashed in this summer.
He reached agreement on a four-year, $48 million contract with the Toronto Raptors in July, capitalizing on an emergent season in which he averaged career highs of 17.9 points, 7.4 assists and 36.2 minutes per game.
In theory, last season could have been the beginning of something special.
But that's no guarantee.
Basketball Insiders' Moke Hamilton suggested in August:
"Now, in a career that has been marked by inconsistency, attrition and miscellaneous ups and downs, it is on Lowry to prove [general manager Masai] Ujiri made a wise investment in him.
It is not uncommon for players to put together career-best years at convenient times in order to help assure themselves big paydays. Getting googly-eyed over the 'contract-year-guy' is a general manager's worst fear.
"
Indeed, Lowry's 2013-14 campaign wasn't just a career best—it was also an outlier.
The eight-year veteran's second-best scoring average was 14.3 points per contest—through just 47 games—in 2011-12. His first season in Toronto (2012-13) only yielded 11.6 points per game and an uninspiring mark of 40.1 percent from the field.
The Raptors also have some depth at the point guard spot after committing two years and $13 million to backup Greivis Vasquez. And with emergent young players such as DeMar DeRozan, Jonas Valanciunas and Terrence Ross all on the rise, it's entirely possible Lowry's role diminishes by no fault of his own.
You don't have to question Lowry's motives to wonder whether last season's pace was a sustainable one.
You just have to examine a career that's generally been more pedestrian than it was a season ago.
Kevin Martin—SG, Minnesota Timberwolves
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If head coach Flip Saunders is indeed committed to win-now illusions in the wake of Kevin Love's departure, 10-year veteran Kevin Martin could theoretically see his scoring average improve from the 19.1 points per game he tallied a season ago.
At some point, however, you have to imagine reality will set in.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are embarking upon a rebuilding process whether they like it or not, and rookies Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine could very well give Martin a run for his minutes on a wing where he averaged 32 minutes per contest during the 2013-14 campaign.
The 31-year-old Martin suddenly becomes an odd fit for a roster that's turned its attention to the future. If Saunders has any hope of expediting the organization's transformation, playing the younger options is a logical—if not obvious—mandate.
Martin's experience and leadership may remain valuable throughout that process, but his minutes will come at the expense of furthering Wiggins and LaVine's growth.
That's a tradeoff that doesn't make much sense in a post-Love era.
Isaiah Thomas—PG, Phoenix Suns
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Isaiah Thomas' third season with the Sacramento Kings was a breakout by any measure. His 20.3 points and 6.3 assists per game were both career highs, as was his 34.7 minutes per game.
It was the kind of performance one might have expected would translate into a long-term arrangement with those Kings.
Instead, the 25-year-old was dealt to the Phoenix Suns in a sign-and-trade agreement that will pay Thomas $28 million over the course of the next four years.
The good news is that the Suns—who narrowly missed the playoffs with 48 wins last season—are far closer to putting it all together than Sacramento. The bad news is that Thomas probably won't play as prominent a role on a team with a backcourt that includes Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe and rookie Tyler Ennis.
For his part, Thomas isn't settling.
"I want to be a starter," Thomas told reporters in September. "Who wouldn't? I'm going to push to be one but as long as I play, like Coach [Jeff Hornacek] said, I'm going to have a big role and play big minutes; I'm fine with that. As long as I'm in at the end of games when it really counts, that's all that matters."
But even those late-game minutes may be in doubt.
Dragic was named the league's Most Improved Player last season after averaging 20.3 points and 5.9 assists per game. Bledsoe agreed to a five-year, $70 million deal with the organization in September. Neither is likely to accept a significant reduction in playing time this season.
Thomas will still get his chances, but he won't be the focal point he was in Sacramento—and the numbers will reflect that.
Dion Waiters—SG, Cleveland Cavaliers
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The Cleveland Cavaliers are about to test just how many cooks can fit into a lone kitchen.
With the additions of LeBron James and Kevin Love (and the return of point guard Kyrie Irving), Dion Waiters suddenly becomes the fourth option on a team that once groomed him to become a sidekick. The 22-year-old has started a combined 72 games through his first two seasons, establishing himself as the rotation's second-leading scorer in both campaigns.
After averaging 15.9 points on 14.2 field-goal attempts per game last season, the stage is set for a more limited and complementary role—one in which playing defense may become more vital than generating offense.
"I've been thinking about how I can adjust my game to best play alongside LeBron ever since he made his decision," Waiters said in August, per SlamOnline's Brendan Bowers. "A player like that, the best player in the world, you get excited to have him on your team. And you also have to adjust your game to make the overall team better around him."
It remains to be seen how and to what extent Waiters will make those adjustments.
But it's safe to assume fewer shots will be among them. With three stars ahead of him in the pecking order, Waiters now headlines a very solid supporting cast—but a supporting cast nonetheless.
Nick Young—G/F, Los Angeles Lakers
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Nick Young—also known as Swaggy P—was one of the Los Angeles Lakers' very few highlights a season ago.
The 29-year-old led the Lakers with a career-high 17.9 points per game, despite averaging just 28.3 minutes. It was the kind of explosiveness you might expect from a shoot-first contributor who suddenly found himself in a rotation with few scoring options.
Kobe Bryant played just six games last season. Steve Nash played in only 15.
It was the perfect storm for Young, a green light for one of the league's most dangerous long-range threats.
But the Lakers' newfound health should mean fewer opportunities for Young. With Bryant, Nash and newcomers such as Jeremy Lin initiating offense, the USC product will almost certainly return to a more complementary role.
There's also some risk Young will get off to a slow start after having thumb surgery earlier this month, a procedure that could require eight weeks of recovery. Without the benefit of training camp or preseason games, expect Young to gradually regain his form upon return.
Until then, there will be some rust—along with the need to carve out a niche on a deeper, healthier roster.
