NFL Week 6 Picks: Seahawks Triplets, Bengals Psychology, Terrible Kickers
Riffs, rants, observations and dissenting opinions from the voices in my head: Here's a warped and dented take on this weekend's games, this week featuring ruminations on the 1990s Cowboys and a really long segment about terrible kickers.
Note: All times listed are Eastern, lines are via Odds Shark and game capsules are listed in the order you should read them.
Cowboys at Seahawks
TOP NEWS
🚨 Dexter Lawrence Traded to Bengals
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🚨 Giants Picking 5th and 10th
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NFL Not Investigating Mike Vrabel
Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Line: Seahawks -9.5
In the most glorious of their glory days, the Dallas Cowboys were led by the Triplets. It was an awful nickname and a gross oversimplification of reason for the team's success.
But in the early 1990s, effort was uncool. We stopped shampooing or wearing decent clothes for three years, so we sure as heck weren't going to coin a clever nickname for Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, Michael Irvin or the (ugh) Wowboys.
Those Triplets created a triangle of terror that made offensive strategy simple. If you loaded up to stop Emmitt, Irvin would beat you. If you focused on stopping Irvin, Emmitt chugged right over you. If you somehow stopped both, Aikman had a cabal of role players like Alvin Harper, Jay Novacek and Daryl "Moose" Johnston at his disposal.
It was like one of those "you can only pick two" diagrams. Throw in the best offensive line in the NFL and a talented defense, and there was no right answer for solving the Cowboys' trinomial.
The Cowboys have tried to replicate the Triplets model for years. Squint and you can convince yourself that Tony Romo, DeMarco Murray and Dez Bryant are a reasonable facsimile, except that they turn the ball over constantly and get only minimal support from their defense.
The whole Triplets model has been redefined for the 21st century, and the Cowboys come face-to-face this week with the new and improved version.
Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch and Percy Harvin could be the Aikman-Emmitt-Irvin of this generation. The only reason they are not there yet is because Harvin was not around for most of last season.
They provide the same third-degree offensive algebra that the Triplets gave the 1990s Cowboys. Load up to stop Lynch, and Harvin will kill you in the flats. Worry about the screen-and-reverse game, and Lynch will stuff the ball down your esophagus. Stretch your defense to account for both, and Wilson can launch bombs to one of many functionaries or (the next-gen wrinkle) kill you with option keepers.
The Wilson Triplets don't have a line in front of them that can match those 90s Cowboys, but their defense is better, and the overall effect is the same.
The Seattle Seahawks are a modern variation on what outstanding teams have always looked like. Unfortunately, we have gotten bad at recognizing outstanding teams.
Lots of "Seahawks are vulnerable" talk made the rounds this week after their not-so-close close call against the Washington Redskins on Monday night. The Seahawks took a 17-0 lead on the road despite a mix of sloppy and tacky penalties, then kept their opponent at arm's reach the rest of the night, allowing exactly two big plays to one of the NFL's best big-play receivers.
Vulnerability must mean mortality these days.
If Bryant beats Richard Sherman once or twice Sunday, the "shutdown cornerback" argument will start again. If Deion Sanders played in the age of Twitter, every ankle-nibbling missed tackle would have been a GIF.
Luckily for Primetime and others, the Triplets got to play in an era in which the Internet was still that thing the weird kid down the street used to send arguments about Rush lyrics to bulletin board systems. Every 20-15 or 23-17 win was not picked apart for flaws; there was no financial or social incentive to re-evaluate the quarterback or cornerback's elite-ness on an hourly basis.
It was a simpler time when it was easier to appreciate greatness, even when you rooted against it.
The Seahawks may have some trouble with this pesky new version of the Cowboys, but narrow wins against tough opponents is not a sign of weakness when you've proved you can consistently produce them.
Prediction: Seahawks 27, Cowboys 20
Panthers at Bengals
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Bengals -7
The Cincinnati Bengals are now 6-14 in prime-time games during Marvin Lewis' tenure, as well as 0-5 in the playoffs. This is clearly a job for either a psychologist or a hypnotist, but it is also irrelevant what will happen on Sunday.
At home with an early kickoff against an NFC opponent, the Bengals are 15-6-1 under Lewis. I'm not a big fan of voodoo trends or customized data sets, but someone obviously put all their Bengals bobbleheads on top of the ice cube trays last Sunday night. The team is more comfortable rolling out of bed for a 1 p.m. kickoff against an opponent with no emotional baggage.
A.J. Green's injury is troublesome, but every team in the NFL lines up behind the Panthers when it's time to talk about offensive injuries.
Cam Newton has now had every possible surgery in the last 12 months, including oral: two of his wisdom teeth retired last Tuesday; the others left via free agency so Jerry Richardson could save money on dental floss.
Newton needs help as he sheds teammates and body parts, and the Bears obliged him with fumbles, Cutlerceptions and stupid special teams play last week. What Cam needs this week is some early flex scheduling to move the kickoff to 8 p.m.
The real story here is the battle for the title "Queen City" between Cincinnati and Charlotte. Charlotte is named after Queen Charlotte of Mecklenburg-Strelitz, wife of King George III and no relation to Broncos linebacker Karl Mecklenburg. Helen Mirren once played her in a movie; Mirren also played Caligula's wife in a movie once, but no one is nicknaming a city over it (though Oakland could apply). Cincinnati gets its nickname from the Longfellow poem Catawba Wine.
It's always a short jump from Cam Newton's teeth to a cultural studies class here at Game Previews, but it only goes to show that when you cannot win on prime time and all your starters are injured, bad poetry, cheap wine and Roman debauchery are definitely the ways to go.
Prediction: Bengals 23, Panthers 14
Lions at Vikings
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Even
In honor of the Detroit Lions' signing of Matt Prater, their third kicker in six weeks, here are some Great Moments in Career Ending Kicking from my personal all-too-large head stash of bad kicking anecdotes:
Tom Birney Misses Four Field Goals, Packers Tie Buccaneers: Birney was one of the last straight-on kickers in the NFL. He was also terrible, converting just 75 percent of his extra point attempts during a two-year career. Birney missed four field goals in a 14-14 tie of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on October 12, 1980. A 24-yard miss in the waning moments of regulation sailed wide right. A 36-yarder with five seconds left in overtime was partially blocked. Paging future Hall of Famer Jan Stenerud!
Michael Koenen Turns Back the Clock: Koenen, now the Buccaneers punter, nailed a 58-yard field goal for the Atlanta Falcons in relief of aging Todd Peterson in 2005. Jim Mora used Koenen's deep leg as an excuse to revisit the 1960s, when the kicker and punter were often the same person. Koenen was perfect in the preseason in 2006 but then had two 30-yard attempts blocked in his second game, while 36- and 40-yarders sailed wide left. Paging Morten Andersen!
Cole Ford and Friends: Cole Ford entered a September game against the New York Jets as the most accurate kicker in Oakland Raiders history in 1997. He then missed four field goals and an extra point, though he had help: Snapper Adam Treu was firing footballs randomly in holder Leo Araguz's direction, and a 35-yarder was easily blocked and returned for a touchdown. Treu kept his job and became a reliable long snapper, but the Raiders spent two years coping with ineffective replacements for Ford. Paging first-round pick Sebastian Janikowski!
Buddy Ryan's Killer D's: Buddy Ryan had zero patience for kickers. The Philadelphia Eagles started the 1988 season with Dean Dorsey as their placekicker, but after three misses in his first three games, Dorsey gave way to Dale Dawson. Dawson missed a 22-yarder in his only attempt, so Ryan cut him in favor of Luis Zendejas; Dawson later signed with the Green Bay Packers, replacing Max Zendejas. Confused yet? Luis Zendejas lasted over a year, but Ryan got mad during a midseason 1988 slump and cut him (by phone) in favor of Steve DeLine. DeLine went 3-of-7 in three games. Paging Roger Ruzek! Also, paging the NFL's first Bountygate!
Bob Timberlake's 1965 Giants. Timberlake, a rookie option quarterback pressed into kicking duties because the 1960s were weird, went 1-of-15 for a 7-7 team. The New York Giants were so desperate to find a real kicker that they prolonged the NFL-AFL war and fast-tracked the arrival of soccer-style kickers to get one. It's a long story, but a good one.
Then, of course, there was the time Ndamukong Suh missed an extra point in relief of Jason Hanson, which led to a Mark Sanchez victory, which led directly to the current Jets.
Bounties, NFL-AFL wars, Tebowmania and Geno Smith's battle with a sundial: kicker catastrophes offer a funhouse mirror look at pro football history. But when they start making Kyle Orton look good, that's just taking things too far.
Prediction: Lions 26, Vikings 17
Giants at Eagles
Sunday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Eagles -2.5
There was a point late last week—just after Odell Beckham's hamstring got tired of Tom Coughlin yelling at it and sprung back into place—that the Giants had both one of the shortest injury reports in the NFL and their full complement of offensive weapons. This is not the natural state of New York football, so Rashad Jennings promptly suffered an MCL injury as a result of cosmic counterbalances.
Jennings was a vital contributor for the Giants, as well as the running back Coughlin has always longed for: a tough high-character player whose greatest strength is his lack of weaknesses. Jennings has averaged 4.4 yards per carry this season, caught 11 of the 13 passes thrown to him and protects passes well.
Rookie backup Andre Williams is a bruiser with hands like an icy sidewalk and a rudimentary understanding of pass protection. Andre Scissorhands has dropped two of the eight passes thrown to him and blew a blocking assignment against the Falcons.
Williams may someday be a Michael Turner-level talent, but right now he ranks somewhere between Ron Dayne and the young Brandon Jacobs on the Giants Running Back Frustration Potential Index.
In even worse news, Williams' backup is Peyton Hillis.
The Giants' newfangled up-tempo offense had just established a groove and is not ready to start fitting replacement parts into the mix. But the Eagles have injury problems of their own, and they are hitting where they hurt the most: on special teams. Returner Chris Polk and special teams scoutmaster Brad Smith are both hurt, meaning the Eagles will not get their weekly touchdown in the kicking game.
Until they prove they can win without that, the Eagles will be vulnerable to the new no-huddle kids on the block.
Prediction: Giants 24, Eagles 21
Packers at Dolphins
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Packers -2.5
Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald noticed this week just how well the Miami Dolphins' new acquisitions have played this season. Not only have free-agent splashes like Branden Albert performed as well as expected, but quick-fix replacements like center Samson Satele and linebacker Jelani Jenkins have been outstanding. Satele has played so well that Mike Pouncey may slide to guard now that he is close to returning.
With defenders Reshad Jones and Koa Misi coming back soon, the Dolphins will have quality depth on defense and on the offensive line.
What a difference a competent general manager makes! Offensive game-planning has also taken a step in the right direction. Ryan Tannehill looked great against the Raiders in London, running a game plan so Chip Kelly-like that it had to be Bill Lazor's handiwork.
It is getting harder and harder to figure out what Joe Philbin brings to the equation. Maybe it's his excellent communication skills and commanding locker-room presence. (Crickets chirping.)
Philbin's former employers are also riding high after a mini-bye. Like the Dolphins, the Packers appear to be getting deeper and more talented at the right time. Remember Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and his miserable debut? He now has a sack, an interception, a fourth-down stuff and a goal-line stop on his resume.
That kooky Julius Peppers-in-coverage experiment? It's working. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked just five times in his last three games, and Eddie Lacy has overcome his slow start. Packers problems are solving themselves on both sides of the ball.
It's easy to be optimistic after beating either A) a team looking to fire its coach or B) Christian Ponder, then getting some extra days off.
The Packers have a habit of building on success, the Dolphins a habit of misinterpreting it and doing something ridiculous. These teams are more closely matched on the depth chart than you might think, but only one is likely to self-inflict a quarterback controversy after the game.
Prediction: Packers 22, Dolphins 20
Ravens at Buccaneers
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Ravens -3
Lovie Smith is having a hard time selecting his quarterback right now.
His choices are a rifle-armed second-year prospect who led a comeback against the Steelers and nearly upset the Saints in New Orleans, or a 35-year-old career backup who threw four interceptions and took five sacks in 68 pass attempts, and once managed to fumble twice in the same play.
Smith says "odds are" the prospect starts this week (the veteran is still battling injuries), but he is tired of talking about it every week. "I don't know why we have to go there right now," he told reporters after last week's overtime loss.
Really, this is a tough decision: a strong-armed youngster with potential who opens up the entire playbook or some rickety old guy who used to play third string behind Jason Campbell and Caleb Henie? Give Lovie some time to make up his mind, will you? And stop trying to offer suggestions!
OK, maybe the choice between a talented youngster who is playing well and a broken-down lifelong backup with a career passer rating below Josh Freeman's seems obvious to you, but Lovie perceives things differently.
For example, he sees Mike Glennon as a gifted scrambler, singling out plays like Sunday's touchdown to Robert Herron and saying, "He looked like Michael Vick running around on that play."
For the record, Glennon did not move an inch from the pocket on his touchdown pass to Robert Herron.
Maybe that's the problem: Lovie has gotten game film mixed up and is watching the Jets offense on Monday morning.
If Geno Smith and Vick were his options, some waffling would be understandable. But if you cannot tell Mike Glennon is a better option than Josh McCown, you just aren't watching Buccaneers games. And while it is OK for you to not watch them, that's Lovie's job.
Prediction: Ravens 23, Buccaneers 20
Patriots at Bills
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Patriots -1
EJ Manuel's version of the Buffalo Bills offense was a sloppy-but-energetic mess, loaded with options, up-tempo tactics and incomplete passes bouncing every which way. It was like a high school production of Grease, with Manuel as a Danny Zuko who sometimes accidentally drove Greased Lightning into the orchestra pit.
Under Kyle Orton, the Bills offense is all I-formations, inside runs and flat passes: The Overly Reverent Community Theatre Players Present: A Long Evening With Arthur Miller. Exuberant semi-competence has been replaced by joyless quasi-professionalism: another triumph for mediocrity by design.
The New England Patriots rediscovered both success and fun on Sunday night by bringing back their up-tempo tactics and two-tight end sets. But have they fixed their pass protection by finally settling on a Bryan Stork-Ryan Wendell-Dan Connelly combination?
The Bills' pass rush (17 sacks) is the only thing that makes them exciting anymore. Pass pressure won't be enough to beat the Patriots, but it may slow down the Rob Gronkowski-Tim Wright circus, making the Patriots dull again. The Patriots can be boring and win; the Bills are just likely to bore.
Prediction: Patriots 27, Bills 16
Steelers at Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Even
The Pittsburgh Steelers don't really have game plans anymore, just a bunch of tics and quirks wrapped around Ben Roethlisberger targeting Antonio Brown a dozen times.
Sunday's narrow victory against the Jaguars featured all of our favorite Steeler-isms: Troy Polamalu trying to jump a snap count and earning a penalty (as well as nearly starting a brawl); a backup running back getting exactly one carry (Dri Archer and Will Johnson have been splitting that role in Todd Haley's neurosis); lots of wide receiver screens that function as 0-2 sliders in the dirt; tons of penalties; and one play where Big Ben pump-faked four times before finally releasing the ball.
Their strategy appeared to be to noodle around and wait for the Jacksonville Jaguars to happen, and it worked.
The Steelers should have learned in Week 1 that you can't fall asleep on the all-new Cardiac Kids. The Browns have outscored opponents 67-30 in the second half, throwing some kind of late-game scare into all four of their opponents. The Steelers squandered a 27-3 lead in the opener and needed a last-second field goal to win.
The spread has bounced around this week: Vegas has become skeptical of the Steelers' ability to beat their favorite punching bags on the road. You should be skeptical too.
Prediction: Browns 26, Steelers 20
Broncos at Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Broncos -10
Have a little sympathy for Geno Smith. Anyone can get confused when trying to adapt to the San Diego Chargers schedule. The Chargers open their seasons on Tuesday mornings and play Saturday night games (coming Week 16 against the Niners). They are lucky they are not playing that 9:30 a.m. East Coast game from London in two weeks. Come to think of it, the Jets are lucky they are not playing in that game either: Geno might try to set his watch by Stonehenge.
Frankly, Geno may have been on to something. Most of the Jets' problems can be solved by thinking astronomically:
Incomplete Passes in the Flat: Geno fails to account for the curvature of the earth when throwing toward the sideline.
Fascination with Michael Vick: Light waves from 2010 are just reaching Alpha Centuri, so residents of that star system are looking forward to Vick's comeback performance.
Constant False-Start Penalties: Because the earth is both rotating and revolving, and the universe itself is expanding, we're are all in motion even when we perceive ourselves as perfectly still. Especially Willie Colon.
Terrible Pass Defense: The Jets did not account for the San Andreas fault when assigning coverage techniques. Antonio Gates and Malcom Floyd hit those plate tectonics just right and continentally drifted open.
Complete Unpreparedness to Face Broncos: If you round to the nearest 1,000 as astronomers often do, all NFL games are just 0-0 ties. And Peyton Manning has 1,000 touchdowns.
Prediction: Broncos 31, Jets 10
Chargers at Raiders
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Chargers -7.5
It's Tony Sparano's first game as Raiders head coach! Here are some things we can expect to see:
The Wildcat: Darren McFadden ran it at Arkansas. Sparano installed it with the Dolphins. It's the ultimate surprise strategy, sprung exactly when everyone expects it to happen.
Mike Holmgren: The NFL's Guru without Portfolio circled Oakland during the bye. Look for him in the owner's box wearing his "I was president of the Browns for three years and all I got was this crummy tee shirt" tee shirt.
Footage of Sparano burying a football: The new coach performed a symbolic football funeral as a motivational tactic on Tuesday. Undead Zombie Football will become the team's general manager by 2019.
A Tribute to Art Shell: He became the first African-American head coach in the NFL 25 years ago this week. America has come a long way since then, even if the Raiders haven't.
A Chargers Victory: New coach or not, the Raiders have as much chance of beating a good team as that buried football has of growing into a magical new stadium for Mark Davis.
Prediction: Chargers 28, Raiders 16
Bears at Falcons
Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Line: Falcons -3.
"Soft defense" is one of those talking points that slips out of gear, rolls down a hill and crashes into reality's storefront.
First, a few experts notice that the Falcons and Bears, on the whole, don't tackle as well as the league's better defenses. A few high-profile missed tackles capture the public's notice, then the need to spin the story into the stratosphere takes over: Bears/Falcons defenders are so weak that they couldn't even bend an iPhone 6!
Yes, I am guilty of making "bounce off the pillow" jokes about Chris Conte and Asante Samuel, neither of whom could stop spilled milk if you gave them a whole roll of the quicker picker upper. But Samuel is long gone, and Conte is out with a concussion. William Moore, another frequent flier backwards off the stiff-arm (Pro Football Focus—subscription required—records four missed tackles against just 13 tackles and assists) is also out.
What the Falcons and Bears are dealing with are inexperienced defenses. The Falcons rely on youngsters like Paul Worrilow, Joplo Bartu and Kemal Ishmael up the middle. The Bears count on Kyle Fuller, Ego Ferguson, Christian Jones (subbing for Jon Bostic) and Danny McCray to play major roles in support of their cast of 30-somethings.
Young defenders are often out-of-position or step-late defenders, and therefore lunging or off-balance tacklers. Of course, calling a defense "young" is not as juicy or entertaining as calling a defense "soft."
There are bound to be plenty of missed assignments and poor tackles on Sunday, and neither team stands a chance of consistently covering the other's wide receivers. But don't be surprised if, by December, both teams look a whole lot tougher.
Prediction: Falcons 34, Bears 31
Redskins at Cardinals
Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Line: Cardinals -2.5
Did you ever think you would miss DeAngelo Hall?
Ah, DeAngelo, charter member of the So Overrated He's Underrated All-Pro Team. Dan Snyder and DeAngelo Hall always felt Hall was a special player. Stat-minded analysts considered him a complete liability.
The true Hall was somewhere in between: the cornerback equivalent of a baseball outfielder with a .250-25-90 stat line. The week-in, week-out production was poor, but the Redskins needed Hall's dingers (pick-six interceptions against hanging curveballs), and that sabermetrician's dream of a replacement is not so easy to find.
Hall is out for the year, and the Redskins cornerbacks are now David Amerson and rookie Bashaud Breeland. The 10-yard cushion is now a default Redskins defensive strategy.
Screens are wide open, and Russell Wilson options were made easy by a pair of cornerbacks with no concept of how to fight off a block. Hall, for all of his faults, had the pure speed and tenacity to chase Wilson and Percy Harvin out of bounds. He would then have grabbed their facemasks somewhere near the Gatorade table and ripped the Seahawks stars to the ground, offsetting the Seahawks penalties that represented the Redskins' most productive defensive stops on Monday night.
Hmm, maybe we don't miss Hall all that much. But the Cardinals must choose between the injured Carson Palmer, recently concussed Drew Stanton and woefully unprepared Logan Thomas on Sunday. The Redskins are ripe to be picked apart by even these quarterbacks. Hall would have at least turned one mistake pass into a solo home run.
Prediction: Cardinals 22, Redskins 13
Jaguars at Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Titans -4
This may be the least-watched NFL game of the decade.
Both the Jaguars and Titans are terrible, of course, and both have been terrible for so long that even local fans have tuned out. The Jaguars were in the midst of a three-year local television ratings decline entering 2014, and the Jacksonville market was not exactly New York to begin with. Ratings plummeted even further at the beginning of this season, though Blake Bortles provided a brief boost that by now has burnt out
Titans ratings are also on the decline in a small market, and frequent appearances by Charlie Whitehurst and his mallrat ponytail are not helping. While some local fans may tune in under the "this could be a win" theory on Sunday, the fan who gives up in early October is not likely to be lured back by the promise of a sloppy victory against a dull opponent.
What about the satellite market? Until last year, Titans-Jaguars held some appeal to fantasy gamers because of Chris Johnson and Maurice Jones-Drew. At least one television per "Every NFL Game Plus $2 Drafts" bar in the country dedicated one television to the fantasy curious. But bartenders in New Jersey won't be having the "Hey, buddy, can you switch one of these televisions to Titans-Jaguars for me? I have Storm Johnson and Shonn Greene in my fantasy league, and I am going against Clay Harbor" conversation very often on Sunday.
Several important regional 1 p.m. games will eat further into this matchup's appeal: Panthers-Bengals and Packers-Dolphins will nibble at the edges of this game's Southern media reach. At least NASCAR gave the Jaguars and Titans a break by scheduling the Bank of America 500 on Saturday night. Bortles and Whitehurst could easily get trounced in a ratings war with Kyle Busch and Jeff Gordon.
Maybe we are missing something: Five of the last six Titans-Jaguars games have been decided by a touchdown or less. Last season's first meeting was a thrilling 29-27 Jaguars victory that featured…two Chad Henne interceptions, 12 punts, 71 combined rushing yards for MJD and CJ2K, the obligatory Jake Locker injury, a holding-in-the-end-zone safety and eight total fumbles.
Hmmm, maybe they will replay that NASCAR race …
Prediction: Jaguars 19, Titans 17
49ers at Rams
Sunday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: 49ers -3
During a midweek conference call, Jim Harbaugh said that rumors that he will be fired by the 49ers are "like warmed-up oatmeal to me."
If you are going to suggest that something is meaningless and insubstantial, oatmeal is a bad choice for a metaphor. Oatmeal is a hearty, nutritious diet staple. Warm it up, and you have a comfort food that spans multiple cultures, a meal that can be found in the homes of 18th century peasants and on the tables of the 21st century health conscious. Oatmeal is a BIG DEAL, and there is an awful lot to it. But maybe that is what Harbaugh was really getting at.
Harbaugh referred to Colin Kaepernick/Alex Smith controversy remarks two years ago as "gobble, gobble, gobble turkey from jive turkey gobblers." He benched Smith for Kaepernick a few weeks later. Bottom line: When Harbaugh is talking about food, he is hiding something. And if he ever discovers coleslaw, we're doomed.
Prediction: 49ers 26, Rams 16
Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. All stats courtesy of Football Outsiders.
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