Expectations Should Be Tempered for Andrew Wiggins' Rookie Season
Feel free to get jacked up about Andrew Wiggins' future. It's OK if you got a little giddy following one of his spin moves, finishes or step-backs during Las Vegas Summer League or his NBA preseason debut.
But when it comes to Wiggins' rookie season and the impact he's expected to make, you might want to relax a little bit.
He'll still put up points—between his athleticism and opportunity alone in Minnesota, I wouldn't be surprised if Wiggins averaged over 15 a game in 2014-15.
Just don't expect them to come with much efficiency or in-game meaning—not at this stage. Not with the shot selection Wiggins is working with.
Outside of the easy buckets he gets fueled by his spectacular quickness and springs, the shots Wiggins is forced to create for himself are low-percentage shots. And as of today, he's probably just not polished enough to convert them routinely against starting NBA-caliber defenders.
Though the 18 points he put up in his preseason debut were impressive and equally encouraging, I actually thought his performance did a better job of reminding us why he's bound to battle inconsistency—at least as a rookie.
Wiggins finished 4-of-11 from the floor, including 2-of-2 from downtown. Realistically, had Wiggins missed his two three-point attempts, we'd probably be talking about his underwhelming 2-of-11 offensive opening game.
And more often than not, Wiggins is going to miss those three-point attempts. That's just how it works, not only for sub-35 percent long-range shooters out of college but for all young players entering the league. The same goes for his mid-range scoring arsenal, which consists of difficult, long two-pointers, whether they're step-backs, pull-ups or fadeaway jumpers.
In his preseason opener, Wiggins shot 1-of-6 in the mid-range, with his only make coming on a tough fadeaway from roughly 18 feet out—a fadeaway I can assure you he didn't make more than two or three times last season.
For what it's worth, at Kansas he only shot 49.3 percent inside the arc and averaged 0.72 points per possession on jumpers off the dribble, per Mike Schmitz of DraftExpress—both mediocre numbers that reflect the trouble he has finishing plays he creates for himself when the game is slowed down. Key Dae of CanisHoopus.com accurately notes how a loose handle can be blamed for Wiggins' lack of fluidity going into his shot delivery off the dribble.
In summer league, Wiggins shot 40.5 percent from the floor on 2-of-13 shooting from deep despite his 15.5-point-per-game average.
At 19 years old, Wiggins' bread and butter is still that quick first step toward the rim and explosive last one going up.
Free throws and easy buckets will save his scoring average this season. Not even a bad shooting game will keep him out of the box scores—that athleticism will inevitably translate to open-floor finishes, putbacks and trips to the line.
"You could see today when you watch him, he’s always going to get two or three ‘aahs’ a game,” coach Flip Saunders told reporters following Wiggins' first preseason action. “You know, ‘Ooh-aahs’ by what he does."
But against a set defense, which is what he'll be facing most of time he's out on the floor, the majority of Wiggins' scoring opportunities are going to come from the perimeter. And at this stage in Wiggins' development, he's only a capable outside shot-maker—not a proficient one.
The good news for T-Wolves fans is that the areas Wiggins is bound to struggle in as a rookie are all areas that allow room for improvement. He's putting up points without much of a handle and an average jumper—just imagine what he might be able to achieve once he tightens both of them up.
But as of today, though fully capable of creating and making his own shot as a one-on-one scorer, he isn't quite ready to string together consistent offensive execution.
Of course, Wiggins' defensive tools and versatility will always give him purpose in the lineup, even on those off nights when his shot isn't falling. But in terms of Wiggins' immediate offensive outlook, temper your expectations amid all the highlights and flashes of brilliance. Those are meant to reflect promise for the long term, when the hope will be converts them into every-game occurrences.
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