Would a Loss to UCLA Destroy Oregon's Playoff Dreams?

The college football world was flipped upside down last weekend, and it seems that every one-loss team in the country still has a legitimate shot at earning a spot in the new College Football Playoff.

But is it possible for a two-loss team from a power-five conference to grab one of those four precious spots? Yes.

With only 10 undefeated teams left in the FBS, it seems likely that that playoff will featured multiple teams with one loss, and depending on how the season goes, we could be looking at a two-loss team in the playoff as well.

According to ESPN’s Rece Davis, he would be surprised if there wasn’t a two-loss team in the playoff.

“I would be almost more surprised if there aren’t two-loss teams in the four-team College Football Playoff,” Davis said to Matt Murschel of the Orlando Sentinel.

However, is it possible for a team that loses consecutive conference games to grab a spot in the playoff?

No.

Is it within the realm of possibilities? Sure. But only for an SEC West team. Based on what we know right now, it would be almost impossible for a team in any other conference to send a team to the playoff after the team had lost two consecutive games in conference play.

That means when Oregon takes the field against UCLA both teams will be fighting for their postseason lives. This is the Pac-12’s first “elimination” game. Heck, it may be the first one in the entire country.

With a win over UCLA, the Ducks likely will vault themselves right back into playoff contention and to the top of the Pac-12 power rankings. However, with a loss to the Bruins the Ducks' shot at reaching the playoff will be over. It’s that simple.

There’s not a whole lot we know about the College Football Playoff and how the 13-person committee will decide which four teams earn a bid. All we have is its website, which says, “The selection committee will choose the four teams for the playoff based on strength of schedule, head-to-head results, comparison of results against common opponents, championships won and other factors.”

That’s all we have so far. The committee will use strength of schedule, head-to-head results, common opponents, championships won and other factors, which will likely be its own opinion on the difficulty of individual conferences, television ratings, star players and more.

Really, figuring out if a two-loss team can reach the College Football Playoff is a math question. ESPN’s Football Power Index only projects three teams to finish with less than two losses: Florida State, Baylor and Marshall. However, Marshall has almost no shot grabbing a spot in the College Football Playoff based on its strength of schedule and conference.

According to ESPN’s Davis, who also used the Power Index for his calculations, it seems likely that multiple two-loss teams will make the postseason playoff this year.

“So by mathematical definition, that would give you two teams with two losses in the playoff,” Davis said to the Orlando Sentinel. “And I think it’s far more likely that we will have one two-loss team in the playoff than there is that we would have one undefeated team.”

I know what you’re thinking: Even if Oregon loses to UCLA, the Ducks will still have a shot at advancing to the College Football Playoff if they win out.

While it wouldn’t be an impossible feat, the Ducks would need a magical combination of events to occur. First, the Ducks would need to win the Pac-12 North and subsequently win the Pac-12 title game on Dec. 5. Second, the Ducks would need every one of the power-five conference champions to have at least one loss and would probably need at least three of those champions to have two losses.

The problem here for the Ducks is numbers. The SEC, based on its performance as a whole so far this year, is likely to enter at least two teams into the College Football Playoff. It wouldn’t be hard to imagine three SEC teams making it to the playoff.

If the season ended right now the four-team playoff would consist of Florida State, Auburn, Ole Miss and Mississippi State. Right now three SEC West teams would reach the playoff, along with ACC power FSU.

While it would seem unlikely that three teams from the same division of the SEC would make it to the postseason dance, it’s a real possibility this year. Five of the six schools in the SEC West are ranked within the top 14 of the AP Poll this week, including four of the top seven teams in the country—Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss and Mississippi State.

Let’s assume that two teams from the SEC West make the playoff. That leaves the Pac-12, ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 fighting for two playoff spots. That means you’re likely going to have four conference champions competing for final two spots.

While a two-loss conference champion may be able to snag a spot in the playoff, it seems highly unlikely from our current vantage point that a conference champion that suffered two consecutive conference losses would be able to recover and reach the playoff.

The key for a two-loss team making it to the College Football Playoff is to essentially limit the strikes against your team. That means only losing to big-name opponents in extremely close games, preferably on the road. It also means not losing consecutive games to opponents that you’re favored against.

The Ducks were favored by 22.5 points against Arizona last week at home and lost by a touchdown. That's strike one. This week the Ducks are favored by a field goal at UCLA. If the Ducks don't play well and grab a win against the Bruins, it'll likely be strike two and three for the Ducks' playoff hopes this season. 

Even if the Ducks win every game the rest of the season and pick up a Pac-12 title along the way, I think it would be almost impossible for them to earn a spot in the College Football Playoff without a victory over the Bruins this weekend.

Oregon's playoff hopes are on the fence as it is after a loss to Arizona and a disappointing showing against Washington State. Thankfully for the Ducks, they beat a very good Michigan State team—a game that will help their case down the road. 

It's simple for the Ducks—win out and you're almost certainly guaranteed a spot in the College Football Playoff. However, another loss, especially against UCLA this weekend, would spell disaster for Oregon's postseason aspirations. 

Betting information courtesy of Odds Shark.

Jason Gold is Bleacher Report’s lead Oregon writer. Follow Jason on Twitter @TheSportsGuy33.