Carolina Panthers vs. Cincinnati Bengals: Spread Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Cincinnati Bengals once played in a jungle at Riverfront Stadium, and they're working on doing the same with Paul Brown Stadium, going 13-2 both straight up and against the spread in their last 15 home games. After taking a beating on the road for their first loss of the season, the Bengals return to friendlier confines when they host the Carolina Panthers Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: Bengals opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 44.5 (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 28.2-19.0 Bengals

Why the Panthers can cover the spread

The Panthers shook off a two-game losing streak to beat Chicago last week 31-24. Carolina trailed the Bears 21-7 but held them to a field goal over the last 40 minutes of the game while getting a game-winning Cam Newton touchdown pass with two minutes left for the victory and the cover as two-point favorites.

By the numbers, the Panthers don't impress; they only rank 25th in total offense and 20th in defense. But they've forced 10 turnovers while committing just five themselves. If Carolina can get a little better production from its running game, and win the turnover battle, it will be right in this one.

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

The Bengals suffered the wrath of quarterback Tom Brady Sunday night, losing big at New England, but we'll forgive them for that. Cincy is still 3-1 both SU and ATS and a serious playoff contender. The Bengals opened this season with victories over Baltimore, Atlanta and Tennessee, holding those three teams to a total of 33 points.

Like Carolina, Cincinnati's stats border on the mediocre, ranking 13th in total offense and just 27th in total defense. But that defensive ranking is a bit skewed because of the fourth quarter against the Ravens and Sunday night's loss to the Patriots. Last year, Cincy ranked third in total defense.

Smart Pick

The Bengals have been nearly unbeatable at home lately, and they've got the bounce-back factor on their side. They're also more likely to win the ground battle in this game. So the pick here goes with Cincinnati, minus the points.

Trends

• Carolina is 14-4 SU in its last 18 games.
• Cincinnati is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home.

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