Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans: Complete Week 6 Preview for Houston

What a roller coaster of emotions for fans of the Houston Texans during their Week 5 loss to the Dallas Cowboys.

From the time Dallas scored with less than 10 minutes remaining in the fourth quarter until the game ended with a field goal from Dan Bailey in overtime, the teams went back and forth with huge momentum swings on nearly every possession.

Losses like that are hard to get over for not only the fans but the players as well, right? I'm sure most of the players on the Texans roster during their return flight to Houston felt like they should have won the game.

Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on how you want to look at it, the Texans won't have time to feel down or reflect on the loss as they face a quick turnaround with the Indianapolis Colts coming to town for Thursday Night Football.

Let me first go on record as saying I don't like the idea of NFL games on Thursday nights. It's simply too much too soon for these athletes; the recovery time isn't long enough, and the product on the field has suffered as a result.

The Texans need to bounce back with a victory, or the train of success they've been riding could come off the tracks quickly. The Texans are underdogs this week against the Colts and likely will be again next week on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

If the Texans don't right the ship and pull off an upset, their 3-1 start will quickly fade into a losing record at 3-4; the line between success and failure in the NFL is razor thin.

The Texans have never been a likely playoff team at any point this season—they would have become one with a win over Dallas—but any chance they do have will be riding on these next two games. They can't secure a spot in the playoffs over the next two weeks, but they can lose it with two losses.

It's hard to say a Week 6 game is ever a must-win, but this one is crucial.

Houston Texans Week 5 Review

Tim Sharp/Associated Press

The running game performed very well last week; the same can't be said about almost every other part of the team. Just a week after rushing for a pathetic 37 yards on 23 carries, the Texans led by Arian Foster bounced back with 176 rushing yards against Dallas, 154 of which came from Foster.

Despite that great performance from Foster, the Texans offense struggled for most of the game against what had been an average Dallas defense at best.

Ryan Fitzpatrick stopped his streak of multiple turnover games but still finished with just 154 yards passing, zero touchdowns, one interception and a 64.4 QB rating.

The drop-off in his production has been significant over the last three weeks since a pretty decent start. During that time frame Fitzpatrick has thrown six interceptions with only two touchdowns and a 66.8 QB rating. He had a 118.4 QB rating with three touchdowns and no interceptions over his first two games.

The offense as a whole was held to less than 100 total yards during the first half and for the full game Dallas had 126 more total yards. In fact, despite having a winning record, the Texans have had fewer total yards than their opponent in all five games this season.

The defense has played well and did so again against Dallas—especially considering Houston has a one-man pass rush—but isn't nearly talented enough to carry this team on its back and win the game by itself.

As I mentioned in my postgame article, the offensive struggles were partially due to what I felt was the worst coaching performance from Bill O'Brien during his brief time in Houston so far. He made multiple mistakes, but I want to point out two that seemed like a bad case of overthinking the situation.

The first situation came in the third quarter on Houston's possession after scoring its first touchdown of the game.

On their previous drive, the Texans marched down the field with ease on the back of several great runs from Foster. The offense finished off the drive with two runs from under center to the left side that went for 33 and 15 yards, respectively.

For the game Foster rushed for 97 yards on nine carries to the left side compared to just 17 yards on eight carries to the right side; the Texans were clearly more efficient running downhill from under center and to the left.

Yet on their next drive the three runs called for by O'Brien were a shotgun run to the right, an under center run to the right and a shotgun run to the left—not a single run to the left from under center where they had just dominated the possession before.

I realize they can't go out and run the same play over and over, but why change it up before the Cowboys even made a stop? If O'Brien wants to mix up the looks and formations early to keep them off balance, that's fine, but by that point in the game it was clear what was working and what was not.

The second situation was the play call on 3rd-and-2 in overtime.

O'Brien again overanalyzed the situation by using an empty backfield shotgun formation to pass the ball instead of handing it off to his back who had averaged six-plus yards per carry. The Texans were past the 50-yard line, so only needing two yards they should have just run it twice and lived with the results.

With the way they ran the ball against Dallas, I have a hard time believing they would have been stopped if they had run it twice to the left.

However, if the call had to be a pass, then at least line Foster up in the backfield to make the defense think you might run and possibly cheat up to stop it, which would have opened up passing lanes for a quick slant. Putting Fitzpatrick in an empty formation with no threat of the run was the worst idea available to them there.

I like O'Brien as a coach and have agreed with most of what he's done, but he looked like a rookie head coach against the Cowboys last week, and it really hurt the team.

News and Notes

Tim Sharp/Associated Press

Arian Foster Doesn't Like Thursday Night Games

I don't agree with everything Foster has to say, but he nailed this one. 

"

Arian Foster said he doesn't know any fans that likes Thursday Night Football. believes it's just a way for the NFL to generate revenue

— James Palmer (@JPalmerCSN) October 6, 2014"

I find it funny for all the talk we hear from the league about how important player safety is yet the NFL increased the Thursday night schedule to the full season a couple of years ago. The product on the field has been poor on Thursday nights this season, and pulling back some should be considered.

However as Foster said, as long as those games help the league bring in even more revenue, nothing will change.

Preparation for a Short Week Is Much Different Than a Normal Game Week

During a normal week, the team will usually have a day off on Monday, go over film on Tuesday and then start practicing on Wednesday to prepare for the upcoming game. That's very standard stuff that all NFL teams do and is not unique to the Texans.

Obviously, since the Texans play on Thursday, though, they can't wait till Wednesday to put in the game plan. They have to start much earlier, but the way they go over the plays has also been different.

"

In preparation for Thursday games, the week has to be much more mental & little will be done physically according to Bill O’Brien.

— James Palmer (@JPalmerCSN) October 6, 2014 "

"

Bill O’Brien said the most important thing this week with the players is rest. Added, it’s a different story for the coaches.

— James Palmer (@JPalmerCSN) October 7, 2014 "

"

Bill O’Brien says the #Texans have walked through roughly 80 plays a day the last 2 days.

— James Palmer (@JPalmerCSN) October 7, 2014"

Short weeks are always tough, but having to face Andrew Luck without the same preparation as you would normally makes it even more of a tough test.

Rookie Guard Xavier Su'a-Filo Receives His First Significant Playing Time

Su'a-Filo only played 10 snaps against Dallas, but even that was easily the highest total he's received this season. As any repeat reader on here will know, I've been calling for him to get more snaps for a long time now. He was drafted high as a powerful run-blocker, which is something current starter Ben Jones has struggled with.

According to Dave Zangaro of CSN Houston, Bill O'Brien called the move to play the rookie more of a football decision and not one made for health reasons. "It was more of a football decision," the coach said. "We felt like he’s at the game, he’s on the 46-man roster and it was more, 'Hey, let’s get this guy into the game. He’s been practicing pretty well. Let’s see what he can do in the game.'"

Whatever the reason is, I'm glad to see him get more snaps. I hope those snaps will continue to increase going forward.

Injury Report

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

Jadeveon Clowney	Knee	Out
Darryl Morris	Ankle	Questionable
A.J. Bouye	Groin	Questionable
Eddie Pleasant	Ankle	Questionable
Shane Lechler	Left Hip	Questionable
Alfred Blue	Knee	Questionable
Brian Cushing	Knee	Questionable
Ryan Pickett	Knee	Questionable
Johnathan Joseph	Knee	Questionable
Tim Jamison	Groin	Questionable
Derek Newton	Ankle	Questionable
Brandon Brooks	Ankle	Questionable
J.J. Watt	Thigh	Probable
Arian Foster	Hamstring	Probable
Ben Jones	Knee	Probable
Andre Johnson	Ankle	Probable

Injury information from Pro Football Reference and local media reports. 

"

#Texans Tueaday injury report includes Cushing and Andre Johnson not practicing. They will play Thursday though. pic.twitter.com/DVkJLgtmZM

— James Palmer (@JPalmerCSN) October 7, 2014"

X-Factors and Matchups to Watch

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Coverage on T.Y. Hilton

The Colts have multiple dangerous receiving threats, but through five games Andrew Luck has targeted T.Y. Hilton more than Reggie Wayne. Certainly, Wayne is still a player who can hurt an opponent, but Hilton is their home run threat with top-end speed who should cause concern for the defensive coaching staff.

Do you roll a safety over top or bracket him by dropping a linebacker into a zone underneath while the corner plays off a little bit over the top? Who will cover him will likely vary depending on where he lines up, with Kareem Jackson covering him in the slot whenever the Colts use three-receiver formations.

My expectation is for Johnathan Joseph to shadow Reggie Wayne, so when Hilton lines up on the outside, that would likely mean either A.J. Bouye or Andre Hal—if Bouye misses another game—will be covering him.

All of those situations concern me. Jackson is a good corner, but he lacks top-end speed, while Bouye has been injured and Hal is just a rookie. Luck will probably look Hilton's way quite a bit on Thursday.

Texans' Running Game

This part of the game will be important for multiple reasons.

I've noticed a trend of big running games on Thursday nights which would be helpful to the Texans if that trend continues. That could just be a product of the matchups on the field, but maybe—and this is pure guesswork—it's instead a product of the defensive lines fatiguing quickly on the shorter schedule.

Regardless of why we've seen big running games on Thursday nights like Eddie Lacy's first breakout performance of the season last week, establishing the run to limit what they ask Ryan Fitzpatrick to do and keep Luck off the field will be a huge key to success for the Texans.

The Colts rank 11th in rushing yards allowed per game, but that rank may be inflated due to the two blowout wins they've had recently where their opponent had to abandon the run after falling behind big. Their rank of 24th in yards allowed per attempt is more reflective of their ability against the run.

Feel free to disagree, but if the Texans don't run the ball well on Thursday, the Colts will blow them out.

Sorry to put the game on one detail, but given how Fitzpatrick's played recently, the Texans have to get another great game out of Foster to have a chance.

X-Factor of the Week: Brooks Reed

The Texans need another linebacker to show up and make some plays. I have no confidence in Whitney Mercilus at this point, but Reed has had a few good moments this year, so I guess it has to be him.

I have confidence in his ability to set the edge and make tackles against the run, but facing another quarterback who is not only very good but also mobile means Reed will need to be more of a disruptive force as a pass-rusher as well.

He doesn't have to necessarily sack Luck, but forcing him to get rid of the ball early, getting hits on him to make him uncomfortable in the pocket and playing mistake-free assignment football to prevent him from scrambling will all be huge keys.

J.J. Watt can't do it on his own, and I'm not convinced that Brian Cushing is back to 100 percent yet; the Texans need Reed to make plays against the Colts on Thursday.

Prediction

Tim Sharp/Associated Press

Ready for the oversimplified prediction?

The Colts have the much better quarterback in Andrew Luck, so that in large part is why I'm picking Indianapolis to win.

Besides Luck, the Colts roster isn't that deep or talented, but it's a quarterback's league, and he's proved over the last two years that he's capable of carrying the team on his back.

The Texans defense has played well, but up against a team ranked first in points scored and second in yards gained, it will be difficult to hold the Colts to a point total the Texans offense can match. Holding the Colts to 24 points would be a solid effort considering they average 31, but can the Texans offense top that?

I doubt it.

Even if the running game is great on Thursday, the Texans have little chance of winning a high-scoring game while Fitzpatrick is the quarterback.

Prediction: Colts 27, Texans 20

Follow me on Twitter for more Texans opinion and analysis: @sackedbybmac