Step-by-Step Guide for Bruno Caboclo to Eclipse His NBA Ceiling

Toronto Raptors rookie forward Bruno Caboclo was the head-turning pick of the 2014 NBA draft, and everyone wants to know how and when he will reach his potential.

The 18-year-old Brazilian prodigy is 6'9" and brings dynamic length and athleticism to the NBA. He scored 11.4 points per game at Las Vegas Summer League, and although he's raw, he showed tangible promise.

On draft night, many thought he was years away from even joining the Raptors. ESPN's Fran Fraschilla famously said Caboclo was "two years away from being two years away."

But he's here already, and he may log minutes in 2014-15. He could become an important piece within a couple of seasons.

Now the question is whether he'll become a high-level player, and how he will develop. If he follows our step-by-step guide, he could meet or eclipse his projected ceiling by the time he's 23.

Big-Picture Ceiling Goals

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Bruno Caboclo is blessed with a 6'9" frame, a 7'7" wingspan, fluid athleticism and a nice-looking jump shot. He has a chance to develop into an immensely versatile player.

His long-term individual goal should be nothing short of stardom.

Don't think of him as the "Brazilian version of Kevin Durant," as ESPN's Fran Fraschilla quipped on draft night. He's not even close to where Durant was when he was 18 years old.

Just think of him as someone who could eventually score 15-plus points while playing multiple positions and supplying swarming defense. Over the summer, I referred to him as someone with an outside chance at becoming an All-Star.

General manager Masai Ujiri explained to B/R's Josh Martin that Caboclo "seems concentrated a lot. I watched him practice—very, very serious and worked really, really hard."

So if the effort is there, how high can he aim? Here are some optimistic yet reasonable benchmarks for him to pursue by his fifth season:

• Starting lineup and third scoring option (for Raptors or subsequent team*)
• Seventeen-plus points, seven-plus rebounds and 37 percent three-point shooting
• Top 25 in defensive win shares
• All-Star consideration by fifth season and beyond

*Caboclo is signed through 2015-16, with team options in 2016-17 and 2017-18 and a qualifying offer in 2018-19 (per Shamsports.com).

Step 1 (2014-15): Sponge off-Ball Movement and Fundamentals

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2014-15 Role Goal: Back end of rotation, sporadic minutes 

2014-15 Skills Goals: Half-court spacing, timely cutting/slashing, polish shooting, gain muscle

2014-15 Stats Goals: 10.0 MPG, 3.5 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 52% FG, 32% 3FG

Caboclo's inexperience and rawness manifest themselves in two main areas: off-ball movement in half-court situations and creativity with the ball.

While it's important to cultivate his dribbling maneuvers and shot-making ability, the chief focus in year one is for get him in the right place at the right time.

Offensively, he doesn't have a superb feel for when and where to cut. On the other end of the court, he exhibits erratic situational awareness for when to help and when to aggressively pursue ball-handlers.

In the span of one summer league game against the Denver Nuggets, he revealed a host of shortcomings: stagnant away from the ball, poor shot selection, failing to properly use screens, sloppy defensive footwork and poor defensive decision-making.

Correcting these mistakes and playing smarter within Dwane Casey's system should be top priority for Caboclo. All along, he needs to polish his ball skills and hit the weight room so he can eventually be an effective driver.

Step 2 (2015-16): Supply Two-Way Energy as Reserve

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2015-16 Role Goal: Eighth or ninth man in rotation, 20 minutes per game

2015-16 Skills Goals: Consistently finding threes, attacking closeouts, pull-up jumpers, defend multiple positions.

2015-16 Stats Goals: 20.0 MPG, 9.0 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 50% FG, 34% 3FG

As Caboclo enters his sophomore campaign, he'll have a decent enough grasp of the NBA game to compete for substantial chunks of time.

His increased compatibility with teammates and developing ball skills will enable him to make an impact in the rotation. But he still won't stand out from a skills standpoint.

Year two is his first real chance at proving himself in the NBA, so energy is the name of the game. He's got to unleash his rangy physical gifts all over the court and maximize his modest assortment of skills.

If he works hard away from the ball, he'll earn more scoring opportunities. This is where his natural shooting ability and continual refinement will come in handy. Masai Ujiri noticed Caboclo's shooting skills when he scouted him in Brazil:

"You can tell he had a good shot," Ujiri told Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated. "Most young kids can’t figure out how to shoot. You could tell he had a chance to become a very good shooter."

When he combines his offensive efforts with assertive and alert defense, he'll be well on his way to a key role in Toronto.

Step 3 (2016-17): Implement Creativity

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2016-17 Role Goal: Sixth man, 25-plus minutes per game

2016-17 Skills Goals: Creating offense, scoring in the post, facilitating and guarding 2s through 5s

2016-17 Stats Goals: 27.0 MPG, 11.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 2.0 APG, 48% FG, 35% 3FG

At this point in his career, Caboclo hopefully will be much smarter, stronger (preferably 230-240 pounds) and more skilled than he was during his first couple of years in the league.

It's time to put his ball skills and improved footwork to use, as he'll be sharp enough and confident enough to attack regularly.

Remember, he's quite limited off the dribble entering 2014-15. DraftExpress.com video analyst Mike Schmitz notes that Caboclo is "reluctant to put the ball on the floor more than once or twice."

With his natural agility and willingness to learn, you can count on him to expand his creativity dramatically by year three. He'll be able to generate separation north-to-south and east-to-west.

As a defender, his experience and physical growth should allow him to guard most swingmen and post players. He must focus on fundamental footwork in each matchup, as that level of versatility would be incredibly valuable.

Step 4 (2017-18): Bring Versatile Attack Nightly

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2017-18 Role Goal: Starter, key role player

2017-18 Skills Goals: Consistently executing as scorer and facilitator, commitment to elite nightly defense

2017-18 Stats Goals: 32.0 MPG, 14.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 3.0 APG, 48% FG, 37% 3FG

This is the year he'll officially be a force and knock on the door of stardom.

At 22 years old, with three seasons under his belt, he'll be ready to deliver multifaceted production every night. He might not be a spellbinding offensive master, but he'll create sporadically, shoot and rebound like Kawhi Leonard.

The main focus in this season is to contribute in every phase during every game.

He should look at rangy Swiss Army knives like Nicolas Batum for an example of versatile impact: off-ball mastery, timely passing, reliable shooting, resourceful defense and rebounding. These types of players aren't monumental scorers, yet they acutely impact the team's bottom line.

Assuming he's still on the Raptors, he might be a critical component of their playoff rotation. In a sport that cherishes multidimensional players more than ever, Caboclo would be one of the most irreplaceable assets on the roster. 

Result: Stardom

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2018-19 Results: Starter, second or third scoring option, 17-plus PPG; All-Star reserve and receive votes for All-NBA Defensive Second Team.

With the fourth and final step in the books, the fifth year is when he would definitively reach or eclipse the ceiling everyone envisioned for him.

Remember, he was viewed as a reach on draft night, a risk not certain to ever pay dividends.

If Ujiri did gamble successfully, however, Caboclo will end up being worth much more than a No. 20 pick. He'll be a two-way standout, scoring 17-plus points per game while flustering opponents with long-limbed defense.

He's not identical to Nicolas Batum, and he may never have Batum's elite instincts, but he could be an exciting version of the Portland Trail Blazers star. He would be more athletic and perhaps a more talented scorer when he accesses his ceiling. That's an awesome upside.

Some NBA scouts also see a brilliant future for him. Sports Illustrated's Chris Mannix explains: "Noted a handful of scouts lamenting not being able to move up to get Caboclo. (They) see Giannis (Antetokounmpo)-like potential."

Ujiri, Casey and Co. will look awfully smart if Caboclo sticks to these key developmental steps. In a few short years, we'll be enjoying one of the NBA's most formidable young players.

Daniel O'Brien covers the NBA and NBA draft for Bleacher Report.

Follow him on Twitter: @DanielO_BR