Ravens vs. Colts: Breaking Down Indianapolis' Game Plan

The Indianapolis Colts' two-week vacation is over. Gone are the FCS opponents from Jacksonville and Tennessee, the 3-1 Baltimore Ravens are coming to town.

Sure, it's the NFL, and every team gets paid, but the Jaguars and Titans may both have top-five picks by the end of the season. Now comes another real test, more similar to Weeks 1 and 2 than the last two. 

This is the litmus test we were looking for. The Baltimore offense isn't led by Peyton Manning or Chip Kelly, but it's still sixth in the league in Football Outsider's DVOA. The Ravens front seven is arguably the most talented the Colts will play this season. Baltimore doesn't look like an elite team through four weeks, but they are a definite playoff contender. 

If Indianapolis wants to be a Super Bowl contender, this is the kind of game that it needs to take care of at home. 

So how do they continue their hot streak against a similarly hot opponent? 

Offense: Attack the Weaknesses, Protect the Quarterback

If I had to sum up the thing that most often has gotten Pep Hamilton in trouble, it's overthinking. Instead of just doing what the Colts do best and forcing other teams to try to stop it, the Colts sometimes are a bit too cute in their offensive game plans. 

The Colts' loss to the Eagles is a good example of that. Philadelphia's secondary is vulnerable, and everybody and their brother was aware of that going into Week 2. But instead of attacking that weakness, the Colts thought they could run on Philly and utilized heavy sets and imbalanced lines to run all over the Eagles in the first half. 

But the luck ran out in the second half (no pun intended). The running game stalled, and the Colts never got the downfield passing game going. When they absolutely needed to be able to pass the ball on their final drive, they couldn't get it done. 

This week, the Colts face a similar situation in Baltimore. The Ravens front seven is particularly stout, with defensive linemen Haloti Ngata, Chris Canty and Brandon Williams leading the way. Then you have pass-rushing phenoms at linebacker with the group of Terrell Suggs, Elvis Dumervil and Phernell McPhee, who have a combined 20.9 grade in pass rush from Pro Football Focus (subscription required). 

The secondary, however, is not quite so chock-full of talent. Jimmy Smith is the only starter with a positive grade from PFF so far this season, and Baltimore is just 21st in defensive DVOA against the pass. The Colts should have room to move the ball through the air, especially considering Andrew Luck's current status as the hottest quarterback in the league.

Of course, protecting Luck won't be an easy task against Baltimore. With rookie guard Jack Mewhort out with an ankle injury, the Colts tackles will be crucial. Anthony Castonzo and Gosder Cherilus will have their hands full against Suggs and Dumervil, and Luck could already be dealing with significant interior pressure with Mewhort's absence.

But the Ravens know that the Colts have had recent success throwing the ball downfield, and they seem to be focusing in on it. Cornerback Jimmy Smith told ESPN.com's Jamison Hensley that they have the utmost respect for Luck: 

"

He was already good his rookie season, obviously. Now, he's that much better. He has way better control of the offense. Anytime a person is open, he hits them. That's what it looks like on film. Everybody has to be on their game this week. Everybody has to know exactly what we're doing. We can't let any balls get over our head.

"

It's that last statement that most intrigues me. If the Ravens are really that concerned about the Colts, likely T.Y. Hilton, beating them over the top, Indianapolis could see a lot of Cover 2 looks from the safeties and off coverage from the cornerbacks. 

If that's the case, expect Luck and offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton to take advantage by looking for quick-hitters underneath and potential yard-after-the-catch opportunities. Reggie Wayne was in vintage form last week, and if Jimmy Smith is attempting to corral Hilton as expected, Wayne could have some favorable matchups to exploit.

The Ravens'linebackers have also struggled in coverage to start the season, so if the safeties are staying deep, don't be surprised if Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen support some of the intermediate zones to start the game. If the Colts can set the Ravens up by dominating underneath zones to start the game, they may be able to lure the safeties up and put themselves in position to hit a few long ones in the later stages of the game. 

Defense: Cornerbacks are Key

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

With the news of LaRon Landry's suspension for performance-enhancing drug usage coming earlier this week, the Colts cornerbacks are going to be put to the test on Sunday. 

The starting safety duo of Mike Adams and Sergio Brown leaves plenty to be desired, and now the Colts face Steve Smith and Torrey Smith, two of the league's best deep threats on the outside. The Colts cornerbacks have had a strong start to the season overall, but this is a different test entirely. 

Joe Flacco has an accuracy percentage of 50 percent on throws targeted 20 yards down the field or more, which is fifth in the league, according to Pro Football Focus. 

Greg Toler will likely allow his receptions, as he's prone to do, but I'm most interested in the battle between Vontae Davis and Steve Smith. Smith is playing the Andre Johnson role in Gary Kubiak's offense, and Johnson has gotten the better of Davis on occasion in the past. 

If there's one weakness that Davis has, it's the tendency to allow a deep ball over the top every once in a while. Davis is very consistent in his coverage, but sometimes he fails to get his head around in time on deep throws down the sideline. Smith is the kind of small, speedy receiver that can give him trouble, even in his "advanced" age. 

	Cover Snaps per Target	Cover Snaps per Reception	Yards allowed per Cover Snap	Pass Rating Allowed
Stat	9.3	23.3	0.39	22.6
League Rank	10	5	2	1

With minimal help coming from the safety position, Davis will need to have the kind of shutdown game that he's been having so far this season. That will allow the Colts to roll more of their coverage to the other side of the field to give Toler much-needed help. 

The Colts will have to blitz to get to Joe Flacco, who has been sacked just three times so far this season, and if they don't get to him, the stress on the cornerbacks will raise even higher. Flacco's been very good at avoiding sacks even while under pressure this season, being sacked just 7.1 percent of the time when he's pressured, according to Pro Football Focus (third in the league). When under pressure, he's been the fifth-most accurate as well. 

Indianapolis simply can't count on its pass rush, so the onus is, perhaps unfairly, on the secondary. 

Are they up to the task?