Wisconsin Badgers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Complete Game Preview
After a thoroughly incomplete performance at Ryan Field against Northwestern, the Wisconsin Badgers (3-2, 0-1 Big Ten) take on the Illinois Fighting Illini (3-3, 0-2 Big Ten) in the friendly confines of Camp Randall Stadium, where the Badgers are 3-0.
Last week, the Badgers' two quarterbacks went a combined 12-of-29 for 138 yards, a touchdown and four interceptions. After an ineffective first half by Tanner McEvoy, who went 4-of-10 for 24 yards and an interception, he was replaced by Joel Stave just before halftime.
Stave, who had not played this season due to a case of the yips after starting 19 games in his first two seasons of eligibility, did a couple good things, but the final stat line was ugly: 8-of-19 for 114 yards, a touchdown and three interceptions, including a backbreaker in a goal-to-go situation.
All of the quarterback problems undermined a phenomenal career day by Heisman Trophy candidate Melvin Gordon, who carried the ball 27 times for a career-high 259 yards and a touchdown.
But the Badgers' four turnovers, drive-killing and extending penalties amounted to an embarrassing road loss to an upstart Northwestern team, which finds itself in the driver's seat of the Big Ten West with a 2-0 record.
As for Illinois, its bad season got a little bit worse last week as it handed Purdue its first Big Ten win under Darrell Hazell, who lost his first nine Big Ten contests as head coach, in a 38-27 defeat in Champaign at Memorial Stadium.
Making matters worse, the lone bright spot on the team, quarterback Wes Lunt, went down with a broken leg, per ESPN.com, which should sideline him for four-to-six weeks. Lunt is completing 66.5 percent of his passes with 1,569 yards, 13 touchdowns and only three interceptions.
To replace him is Reilly O'Toole, who has seen nowhere near the success Lunt has. O'Toole is completing 52.6 percent of his passes for 428 yards, a touchdown and four interceptions while seeing parts of two games plus a start against Nebraska.
Let's take a look at both teams' keys to victory, the players to watch and more as each squad looks to get off the schneid in Big Ten play.
Wisconsin Keys to Victory
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Run the Ball. Period.
After last week's dismal performance through the air, with the two quarterbacks completing 41.4 percent of their passes to go along with four interceptions, the Badgers need to go back to what they do best: running the ball.
Melvin Gordon had 27 carries last week and is averaging 21 carries and 174.2 yards per game with nine touchdowns on the ground, while adding five receptions for 27 yards and a score for the season.
His batterymate, Corey Clement, hasn't seen nearly as many touches, getting just 12.4 carries per game, including just six against Northwestern. In limited action, Clement has been solid, averaging five yards per carry to go along with six receptions for 84 yards and a score in the passing game.
In order to preserve Gordon for the home stretch of the season, Clement needs to be used more—a lot more. I'd expect Clement to see closer to 20 carries this game against a feeble Illinois run defense that gave up a whopping 349 yards on the ground to a weak Purdue rush attack.
Defend the Deep Ball
With O'Toole at quarterback instead of Lunt, the Badgers corners will be a little less taxed, though the only way the Fighting Illini can manage a victory in this game is if they stretch out the Badgers' corners.
After Devin Gaulden went down against Northwestern, Derrick Tindal was pressed into action. While Tindal wasn't bad, registering a sack in the game, he also was burnt on the ensuing play for a lengthy gain. Safety Lubern Figaro has looked better of late but was hobbled with an ankle injury early in the game.
If the Badgers can keep everything in front of them, then they should have no problems handling the Fighting Illini. If they can't, with the Badgers' struggles throwing the ball in play, Illinois can keep this a game for far longer than Badgers fans might be accustomed to.
Illinois Keys to Victory
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Air the Ball Out. A Lot.
To start, running back Josh Ferguson has not been bad. On 76 carries, Ferguson has 437 yards and five touchdowns. But Illinois isn't going to beat the Badgers with its 118th-ranked run offense. Granted its passing offense has been mostly predicated on the arm of Lunt, but it currently ranks 12th in passing offense per game.
The Fighting Illini have seven guys with double-digit catches, six of whom have 15 or more receptions and three whom have at least 25. In comparison to the Badgers—outside of Alex Erickson who has 25 receptions—only two other players have more than five—Corey Clement (six) and Sam Arneson (10).
With so many options in the passing game, headlined by freshman receiver Mike Dudek, who has 33 receptions for 539 yards and three touchdowns, and junior receiver Geronimo Allison, who has 26 receptions for 449 yards and four touchdowns, the Fighting Illini's aerial assault could cause problems for the leaky Badgers secondary.
With O'Toole under center, the Badgers are going to need to get into the backfield to try and hurry him, as he doesn't have quite the same pocket presence of Lunt nor the arm strength. But, if he can push the ball down the field, putting the pressure on Sojourn Shelton and Darius Hillary, this game could turn into a track meet.
Force the Badgers to Pass
It could mean putting 10 men in the box, but whatever they do, the Fighting Illini need to force whomever the Badgers have under center to throw the ball. Tanner McEvoy is better with his legs, but offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig seems adverse to letting him do what he does best: run.
With Joel Stave under center, expect a similar offense to what the Badgers ran last season, which was predicated on using the run game to set up long play-action passes, which in turn forces more men outside of the box.
But in limited action in inclement weather, Stave was unable to connect on any long throws. He showed glimpses of what he's been able to do as a starter in the past, where he established a phenomenal connection with Jared Abbrederis—particularly on the 19-yard fade route that went for a touchdown to Kenzel Doe.
No, Illinois will probably not be able to stop the run, as witnessed by its horrific showing against Purdue, whose run game is miles away from that of the Badgers. But if you look at what FCS Western Illinois was able to do by fulling committing to stopping the run, the Fighting Illini have a prayer of slowing Gordon down.
Wisconsin Players to Watch
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Corey Clement, Running Back
This season, Corey Clement is averaging 5.0 yards per carry on 62 carries and hasn't seen more than 16 carries in a single game, while Gordon has seen as many as 32 in a single contest. That needs to change if Gordon is as effective in late November as he has been in the last three contests.
Clement is a talented pass-catcher, a solid blocker and a solid runner, breaking off the kind of chains-moving runs the Badgers offense is predicated on—moreover, should be predicated on. While Clement shouldn't see more carries than Gordon, a more even split seems like a sensible move, particularly against the Fighting Illini.
While riding the hot hand makes sense and the coaching staffs that Gordon has played under have often come under fire for underutilizing their biggest weapon—Gordon only had 62 carries his freshman year despite averaging 10 yards per carry—having a more even split would do both backs wonders.
Clement could see an increase in his number of touches this game, as Illinois' run defense can't stop a nose bleed, but Clement will be a player to watch not just this game but going forward. The Badgers offense will be at its best if Gordon and Clement have a carry split similar to that of James White and Gordon's last year.
Sojourn Shelton, Cornerback
Last season, Sojourn Shelton was something of a revelation. At what looked to be Wisconsin's weakest position, Shelton finished sixth on the team in tackles with 36, led the team in breakups with seven, led the team in passes defended with 11 and led the team in interceptions with four.
This season, through five games, Shelton is once again sixth on the team in tackles with 15; however, he only has one breakup and one pass defended to go along with no interceptions, dropping a sure pick last week against Northwestern.
There is no way around it: Shelton is going through a sophomore slump. While he hasn't been that bad, he came into the season as the alpha dog in the secondary alongside Michael Caputo. And while Caputo is excellent covering underneath routes and is as sure a tackler on the team as there is, he's not great in coverage.
Shelton needs to be the lockdown corner the Badgers desperately need and look for this game against Illinois to be the spark plug to get his season going. Illinois quarterback O'Toole will probably launch at least 30 passes, and I'd be surprised if Shelton wasn't on the receiving end of one of those.
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Illinois Players to Watch
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Reilly O'Toole, Quarterback
Any time you have to replace the Big Ten leader in passing yardage per game, you are going to have a big drop-off. When you have as one-dimensional a team as Illinois has, the drop-off is even more pronounced.
Tabbed as the starter in the wake of starter Wes Lunt's injury, Reilly O'Toole gets the keys to Illinois' not-so-shiny offense and will be asked to do a lot. Illinois is averaging more than 41 passing attempts per game, and with it likely playing catch-up early-on, it very well could reach that figure, even with the backup in.
O'Toole's inaccuracy—he's completing 52.6 percent of his passes—coupled with his penchant for throwing the ball to the other team—he's averaging an interception every 14.25 pass attempts—will make this a steep challenge for the Fighting Illini.
In his one start this season, against Nebraska, O'Toole went 17-of-38 for 261 yards, a touchdown and three interceptions. He will need to improve on those numbers significantly if the Illini want a chance to knock off the Badgers in Camp Randall.
Mason Monheim, Linebacker
On a bad defense, Monheim is the model of consistency. As a freshman, Monheim recorded 86 tackles. As a sophomore, Monheim racked up 97 tackles. And this season, he already has 62 tackles only six games in.
While no one is going to confuse Monheim for Fighting Illini legend Dick Butkus, he is exactly the type of player you want on the field—a sure tackler who will clean up the mess for everyone around him.
Monheim has also chipped in 4.5 tackles for loss and two forced fumbles this year and will need to channel his inner-Butkus if the Fighting Illini want to win this game. With the amount the Badgers will likely run in this game, look for Monheim to crack double-digit tackles by halftime.
What They're Saying
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Wisconsin
The postgame press conference after the 20-14 loss to Northwestern was filled with all sorts of coach-speak, but one quote by head coach Gary Andersen shone through.
When asked about switching quarterbacks, "I just felt like we needed to find a spark on offense," Andersen said, per NUSports.com. He went on to say, "And so I felt like we needed to find a spark and looking for a spark that's why we made the change. So it wasn't necessarily just the quarterback production it was the offense as a whole."
When talking to Stave after the game, who threw a costly interception in the end zone: "That turnover in the red zone, that can't happen," Stave said, per NUSports.com. "That's on me. That was me trying to do too much, trying to force it. 1st-and-(goal) from the 3-yard line, I've just got to throw that ball away."
Illinois
In his postgame press conference after losing to Purdue at home 38-27, head coach Tim Beckman had plenty of not-so-thinly veiled jabs at his team.
After his opening statement, when asked about what he told his team in the locker room: "We're not stopping the run, we've got to stop the run," Beckman said, per FightingIllini.com. "We're not scoring points in the red zone. We were 4-of-8 in the red zone. And then we're not kicking field goals when we need to be able to kick a field goal."
The Fighting Illini are conceding 258.8 yards per game on the ground, and their kickers have missed two extra points and are 2-of-5 on field goals this season. Beckman's frustration is understandable, but the team will need to turn it around in a hurry if he wants to keep his job.
Prediction
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Illinois' woeful inability to stop the run will come back to bite it in this game. Against power-five foes, the Fighting Illini are 0-3 and getting outscored 127-60 in the process while giving up more than 350 rushing yards per game.
Against a team that is averaging 331.4 rushing yards per game, Illinois' biggest weakness will be exposed in a big way as both Melvin Gordon and Corey Clement eclipse the 100-yard mark before both get a rest in the fourth quarter.
I have no real insight as to whom will be the starting quarterback this week, but after watching last week and how Stave's ability to stretch defenses, with the threat that one of these days he'll actually complete a long pass, is a better sign for the Badgers offense.
If the Badgers aren't going to use Tanner McEvoy's legs, then Stave is the better choice under center, though don't expect an air raid against the Fighting Illini. In fact, if Stave throws more than 15 or so passes, something will have gone horribly for the Badgers on defense.
Without Lunt in the lineup, the Fighting Illini's potent offense will go limp as O'Toole throws a pair of interceptions, and any shred of a running game Illinois thought it could run will be busted up thanks to an inspired effort by a Badgers front seven who will be happy to be playing on the right side of the 50.
Wisconsin 48, Illinois 17
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