
Tennessee Football: Game-by-Game Predictions for the Month of October
The Tennessee Volunteers turned in an impressive performance in Athens against the No. 13 Georgia Bulldogs on Saturday, and it's clear that the team is rapidly improving with each game. That progress will need to continue if head coach Butch Jones wants his team to escape the month of October with a 2-2 or better record.
Last year's contest against Georgia in Knoxville was close, but the Bulldogs were significantly banged up and missing several key players, including the best running back in the country in Todd Gurley.
This year, however, Tennessee went toe-to-toe with a relatively healthy Georgia team on the road, and were it not for a brief injury to Justin Worley and a few untimely fumbles, it may have pulled off a major upset victory.
Although the Vols didn't leave with a win, the team can build on the performance starting this Saturday at home against the Florida Gators.
Here's a game-by-game analysis of how Tennessee will fare facing off against its next four opponents in October.
Oct. 4: Florida Gators
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Although Tennessee fans rightfully believe this game is a "must-win" for Jones and his young Vols team, its importance for the Orange and White pales in comparison to what it means for Will Muschamp and the Florida Gators.
It's pretty simple: If the Gators fall in Knoxville, there's very little Muschamp will be able to do to save his job, including a last-second turnaround of the team's offense.
Although much-maligned Florida quarterback Jeff Driskel played well against Eastern Michigan and Kentucky, his stat line against Alabama was abysmal: nine completions out of 28 attempts for 93 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions.
Tennessee currently leads the nation in third-down stops, according to Brian Rice of Boxscore. That's one stat that shouldn't be ignored when the Gators come to town, especially if the Vols' talented secondary forces Driskel to try to pick up first downs with his feet.
Unlike previous years, the Vols now have the defensive speed necessary to contain the edges and keep mobile quarterbacks like Driskel from gaining huge chunks of yardage on the ground.
The Gators defense, while still formidable under Muschamp, is no longer the immovable force it used to be. While the Vols' inexperienced but improving offensive line will give up some sacks to the Florida defensive line, freshman tailback Jalen Hurd will force the Gators to respect the Vols' running game.
That will be the difference-maker, as quarterback Justin Worley will be able to exploit several mismatches against the Gators secondary.
With Marquez North likely being covered by Vernon Hargreaves III, expect Jason Croom, Josh Malone and Pig Howard to have big days en route to a 300-plus yard performance from Worley.
This game will be close until the fourth quarter, but the Vols will pull away and never look back, ending nine straight years of futility against the Gators.
Final Score Prediction: Tennessee 31, Florida 21
Oct. 11: Chattanooga Mocs
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Long before the Vols took the field for the 2014 season, this matchup had the markings of a trap game—a hungry and rising in-state FCS school scheduled in between two of Tennessee's biggest rivals that just so happened to be led by a mobile quarterback.
However, anyone who has watched the Vols this season knows that many of the team's biggest offseason worries, including the defensive front and quarterback play, are pretty well resolved at this point.
While that certainly doesn't mean the Vols should overlook the Mocs, it does mean Tennessee should have no problem earning a victory against a team traveling 111 miles up I-75 for a nice payday in Neyland Stadium.
The biggest takeaways from this game will be how quickly the Vols can pull away and how many valuable reps the team's backup players can receive.
Backup quarterback Nathan Peterman desperately needs more live-game reps, and this may be one of his only chances to take the reins before he battles for the starting position against a younger but more experienced Joshua Dobbs in the spring.
In addition, many of Tennessee's freshmen have only experienced live action on special teams and could use the confidence boost of playing their eventual positions in front of a home crowd.
From a win-loss perspective, this game may not be the most exciting remaining on Tennessee's schedule, but it could prove to be quite telling and an important building block for the team's future.
Final Score Prediction: Tennessee 42, Chattanooga 7
Oct. 18: No. 11 Ole Miss Rebels
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The Ole Miss Rebels are following a path toward success that Tennessee will try to emulate in the coming seasons.
In 2010, the Rebels went 4-8 and followed that up with a 2-10 season in 2011. Poor on-the-field performance led to the firing of head coach Houston Nutt and the hiring of Hugh Freeze, an Oxford, Mississippi, native and longtime high school football coach in Tennessee.
Freeze quickly made the Rebels respectable again, pulling off a 7-6 record his first year on the job and an 8-5 record the next.
Now, in his third year as head coach, his Ole Miss team is ranked No. 11 in the country and is a possible contender for an SEC West title.
Although Tennessee manhandled the Rebels the last time the two schools met in 2010, the Vols' rebuilding project has only just begun, while the work in Oxford is nearly complete.
This is a bad matchup for the Vols for one major reason: Ole Miss's defense is one of the best in the nation, according to Ethan Levine of Saturday Down South.
Although the team hasn't played any heavyweights yet, the Rebels' line held the Memphis Tigers to 23 yards rushing. In comparison, the Tigers managed to rush for 164 yards against the No. 8 UCLA Bruins earlier in the season.
If the Rebels shut down Tennessee's rushing attack and get consistent pressure on Worley, the Vols simply won't be able to keep up with the Ole Miss offense no matter how inconsistently quarterback Bo Wallace plays.
The Vols will keep this one close, but ultimately the Rebels defensive line will wear down the young Tennessee offense and force Worley to make bad decisions throwing the ball down the field.
Final Score Prediction: Ole Miss 28, Tennessee 17
Oct. 25: No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide
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From 1995 to 2006, Tennessee won 10 out of 12 meetings against the Alabama Crimson Tide, including seven straight.
But when Nick Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa in late 2006, the Tide turned the tables on the Vols and now claim a seven-win streak of their own.
With the exception of the 2009 contest, the last seven matchups have mostly been blowouts in Alabama's favor.
Tennessee has gone through four head coaches in that time, lost countless players due to attrition and implemented far too many schemes from far too many position coaches.
Meanwhile, Saban has recruited the best players in the country to play his system year after year.
Although the Vols were easily handled last year in Tuscaloosa to the tune of 45-10, the team will almost certainly be more competitive this season—which is a product of much-needed stability and excellent recruiting.
Justin Worley and his wide receiver corps are more than capable of scoring points against Alabama's secondary, and Tennessee's defense finally has the speed and talent to prevent the Tide from simply scoring at will like they have in recent years.
Still, while the polls may not show it yet, Alabama is almost certainly the best team in the country and possesses a sizable talent and depth advantage over the Vols.
A Tennessee win in this year's matchup wouldn't be quite as shocking or far-fetched as in recent years, but unless the Vols jump out to a big lead like Texas A&M did in 2012, Alabama's depth will once again prevail.
Final Score Prediction: Alabama 35, Tennessee 24
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