7 Boston Celtics Most Likely to Break Out During 2014-15 Season
While wins may be in short order for the 2014-15 Boston Celtics this NBA season, one thing the green team won't be in need of 86ing is breakout candidates.
Whether it is for Rookie of the Year, Most Improved Player or Comeback Player of the Year, the Celtics have no shortage of players with the potential to have a big individual year. Whether Brad Stevens and his staff can get more than one of them to actually come through on their potential and formulate everyone into an actual winning organism remains to be seen.
However, that isn't the purpose of this exercise. Instead, we are looking to narrow down that extensive list of guys who are either down on their luck or looking to make a name for themselves in NBA circles in order to figure out who has the best shot.
On a young team that struggles, there is still going to be a player or two who stand out. Points have to come from somewhere, and if Rajon Rondo returns to full health fairly soon, he'll be giving some of these guys a lot of open shots.
Rondo broke his hand last week while slipping in the shower, according to ESPN's Jeff Goodman. Original projections called for him to miss six to eight weeks.
7. Tyler Zeller
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When Tyler Zeller was traded with Marcus Thornton to the Boston Celtics this past offseason in a deal that also netted the team a future first-rounder, according to The Boston Globe's Baxter Holmes, he was granted a change of scenery.
He hopes a clearer path to real playing time comes with that change. After a fairly solid rookie season with the Cleveland Cavaliers, the former No. 17 overall pick faded to the background of Cleveland's depth chart during his sophomore campaign.
The team went out and signed Andrew Bynum and welcomed back a healthy Anderson Varejao, which meant about 11 fewer minutes per game for Zeller. However, with those shorter minutes, he was much more efficient. Zeller increased his field-goal percentage from 43.8 to 53.8 in his second NBA season, which could bode well for his future.
Still, Zeller isn't entering into a situation with a totally barren frontcourt. Boston has a young 7-footer in Kelly Olynyk who is looking to see a lot of playing time and a couple other bigs like Jared Sullinger and Brandon Bass who figure to be big parts of the rotation.
Also, while he may find an increased role with the Celtics, it isn't like Zeller was a highly touted prospect. He wasn't a lottery pick, like Olynyk was and Sullinger probably should have been, and his ceiling likely isn't super high. Therefore, it is hard to put a finger on just what a breakout season for Zeller would be.
Either way, it is unlikely that he could affect what is possible for the rest of these guys.
6. Avery Bradley
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Normally, one might see a player of Avery Bradley's caliber a little lower on this list. However, since he is already starting from a fairly high spot in terms of his standing in the league, his chances for a breakout season are slightly diminished due to expectations.
Still, Bradley does have a very solid chance of putting together his best season as a professional. Last year, in his fourth NBA season, he had a strong all-around performance. He raised his scoring to 14.9 points per game, from 9.2 the year before, while he also upped his efficiency from a 40.2 to a 43.8 field-goal percentage. While that still isn't a great clip, there is hope it grows.
One thing he has going for him, hopefully, is the chance to play alongside Rajon Rondo. Though the recent hand injury has taken some of the steam out of this duo, it shouldn't be a lengthy recovery, and Boston Celtics fans should get to witness this backcourt soon enough.
In their four years together as members of the Celtics, Rondo and Bradley have played only 63 games together, according to Ben Rohrbach of WEEI. If they can stay on the floor and form some sort of chemistry for 60-70 games this coming season, Bradley has a strong chance to have another career year and increase his standing among the league's shooting guards.
Going against Bradley is the common feeling that players who get paid big money don't put in the work to get better and sort of let up in terms of development, resting on their laurels the following season. Bradley signed a sizable four-year, $32 million contract over the summer, which was more money than a lot of folks thought he had earned in his brief career.
Bradley doesn't seem to be dwelling on any new expectations that that money has brought. Instead, he is focusing on what his role will be as one of the longer-tenured Celtics players in 2014-15.
"I know I have a role on this team," he told CSNNE.com's A. Sherrod Blakely. "I haven't been given it, but I'm willing to accept it. I'll do whatever it takes for my teammates. Whatever that is, I'll do that in order for us to win games. That's really my main focus; it's winning."
Whether Bradley chooses to admit it or not, the financial investment Boston has made in him will continue to weigh on his season and people's perception of how successful he is. Because of that, his chances of a breakout season aren't as high as one might think.
5. Evan Turner
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Looking for a fresh start, Evan Turner chose to sign with the Boston Celtics this season as a free agent.
The signing became official recently, as reported by Jeff Zillgitt of USA Today. Turner will earn $3.278 million next year, with a slight raise in the second, and final, year of the deal. Per Basketball-Reference.com, that is about half of what he made last season from the tail end of his rookie contract with the Philadelphia 76ers.
In other words, a lot of the pressures that weighed on this former No. 2 overall pick have been alleviated. He is no longer viewed as a bust by fans of the team that used that pick on him with guys like DeMarcus Cousins, Greg Monroe and Paul George still on the board. Of course, no one knew then what we know now, but still that has to sting, and those negative vibes can weigh on a player.
The problem with the weight of all those expectations being lifted off Turner this season is that a host of new concerns will soon take their place. NBA fans are finicky, as is the league as a whole. Now that those concerns he once had are gone, he has to start worrying about his future. If he craps out with the Celtics, will another team be willing to employ him?
Hopefully, that drives him. A player as highly touted as Turner once was doesn't want to grow accustomed to working for parts of mid-level exceptions. Boston's newest wing is going to be working, playing and fighting for his NBA future this season.
Turner can thrive in an offense that spreads the ball around and is athletic enough to play at any pace Brad Stevens chooses to employ. According to NBA.com, in 54 games with the 76ers last season, Turner's made baskets were assisted by point guard Michael Carter-Williams 41 times and center Spencer Hawes 48 times. He isn't picky, and having a legitimate distributor and legitimate NBA teammates in an organization that is actually trying to win shouldn't hurt.
While Turner may never reach the potential that was seen as his ceiling in 2010, Boston should grant him an opportunity to get at least part of his career back. With any luck, the relationship will be mutually beneficial.
4. Marcus Smart
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As the No. 6 overall pick in the 2014 NBA draft, Marcus Smart almost immediately fell into the category of sleeper picks for Rookie of the Year.
There wasn't enough hoopla surrounding him coming out of college, like there was for Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker and Joel Embiid, to qualify him for nearly immediate consideration. There was actually just enough not going for him to dull talk of his chances.
The Celtics weren't going to be very good. They also had a starting backcourt that the fans and front office alike were dying to see actually play together. That, coupled with some of the issues Smart had during his sophomore season, including shooting woes and a three-game suspension for having an altercation with a fan, and there was enough negating his talents and NBA readiness to calm expectations.
Smart still has a decent chance to have a breakout season, though you never want to put those kinds of expectations on a rookie, especially one who couldn't crack the top five in the draft. It is more likely that Smart has a decent season and then puts together a breakout campaign in 2015-16, perhaps after Rajon Rondo has finished his time in Boston.
Speaking of Rondo, with his recent hand injury, it is likely he will miss some time at the beginning of this season. While Brad Stevens hasn't committed to Smart as the likely starter at point guard, he is the most talented option and could win the gig in training camp. Even general manager Danny Ainge may have alluded to the possibility on media day with MassLive's Jay King.
"Obviously, (Stevens) won’t throw the whole playbook at Marcus. He’ll keep it as simple as a rookie needs to keep it simple. Rondo’s well-advanced and experienced; it would be like Peyton Manning vs. a rookie quarterback. You just can’t do it. You can’t throw the same expectations at him."
The Celtics will give Phil Pressey an honest shot, especially since he has experience in the league and under Stevens. Evan Turner will apparently also get some looks at point guard. Still, it is Smart who could benefit the most from a handful of starts at the position. If he is successful, we are looking at a whole different level of a possible breakout season for him.
3. Jeff Green
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It has to happen eventually, right? Probably? Maybe?
Jeff Green could have been on this list two, three, four or five years ago as well, and his appearances on it have become alarmingly regular. However, there are some extraneous factors pushing on the opinion that this might be Green's year to do something special.
In the past, whenever Green put it all together, he was an impressive force at both ends, with shockingly graceful athleticism that allowed him to appear to float by defenders with ease. Unfortunately, those moments of excitement have been few and far between during his career, particularly since joining the Boston Celtics.
The first factor has to be his contract, which was given to him by Danny Ainge with seemingly little competition during his signing after heart surgery. The deal expires with a player option for the 2015-16 season worth $9.2 million, according to BasketballInsiders.com. Should Green not pick up that option, he would become a free agent next summer and can seek out another long-term deal.
If he has a really good season, he is more likely to do that in hopes of earning perhaps even more money annually. While this isn't necessarily a contract year for Green, he and his agent could see it that way.
Another factor is what the early word is on his conditioning and the shape he worked himself into over the offseason. According to what Brad Stevens told MassLive's Jay King recently, he and his staff are impressed with what Green was able to do over the offseason.
"We talked to every one of our guys and challenged them, both from a basketball standpoint and from a strength and conditioning standpoint. We went into depth with what they need to do, and he and (strength and conditioning coach) Bryan Doo worked on that. To Jeff’s credit, I think he did come back stronger. And Jeff’s in great shape. Jeff would be in that group that he doesn’t need a whole lot of conditioning. He looks good.
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There are also inklings that Green may see some time at power forward early this season, presumably on a test-run basis, according to MetroWest Daily News' Scott Souza.
With a bigger body to work with, it will be interesting to see if Green can develop into a sort of stretch 4 with slashing abilities in Boston's small-ball sets. Stevens appears to be enthusiastic and dead-set on getting the most out of whatever Green can be. When you have a coach who is that into seeing one player succeed, a breakout season is more than possible.
2. Jared Sullinger
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A popular pick to have a breakout season in 2014-15, as well as last year, is and was Jared Sullinger.
His potential breakout player campaign is helped along by his draft, which saw him fall all the way out of the teens to No. 21 in 2012. Because he fell so far due to injury concerns, the label of sleeper was immediately placed on him. The injury bug reared its head right off the bat with Sullinger missing 37 games his rookie season with back problems.
He did, however, come back stronger as a sophomore and played in 74 games, averaging 27.4 minutes per night. He put up strong numbers, but nothing that would be considered eye-popping enough to warrant the attention of breakout-player seekers. Therefore, he is still in contention to make that kind of leap as he moves into his third professional season.
Perhaps the biggest thing holding Sullinger back from having that type of year is conditioning. The injury and some legal troubles forced him to enter last season in poor shape. In turn, his minutes were unclear early and never entered the level becoming of a star player. Sullinger has been pretty transparent on the subject and told Brian Robb of CBS Boston as much at the start of 2014 training camp.
"[Last year] shut me down. I couldn’t play until September. [Couldn’t do] full-blown basketball with contact, playing one-on-one, things like that, so I was kind of behind the 8-ball and stayed behind the 8-ball. This year, I’m in front of the 8-ball right now, hopefully going to hit the corner pocket, so we’ll see.
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Celtics coach Brad Stevens seemed to reiterate his power forward's thoughts, though not as overly enthusiastically to Jay King of MassLive: "I think he’s in better shape than he was when he got here, certainly, at the start of last year, and really through most of the year. But it’s still about getting in better shape."
Sullinger also admitted to King that he wasn't totally where he wanted to be but planned on getting there before the regular season, with full intentions on earning bigger minutes this season.
If he can put himself in position to play 30-plus minutes per night, then there is little reason Sullinger shouldn't be a prime breakout candidate in the NBA. He has the IQ and assortment of skills necessary to do it; it is all about staying on the floor for both a full season and for enough minutes each game.
1. Kelly Olynyk
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The player seeming to garner the most praise at media day and the outset of Boston Celtics training camp is Kelly Olynyk.
"I think our best bet is to make him a big part of what we're doing," Celtics coach Brad Stevens told ESPN Boston's Chris Forsberg. "I think the reason for that is because he's a skilled, savvy basketball player that can play a number of positions and can stretch the floor for you."
In the same story, Forsberg reports that Boston President Rich Gotham said Olynyk's workout was the best he saw all summer. Olynyk apparently got hot from beyond the arc and hit a bunch of threes in a row.
As Boston's No. 13 overall pick a year ago—a pick they had to move up a couple of spots to make—Olynyk is entering his sophomore campaign after an upward-trending rookie year.
His 8.7 points and 5.2 rebounds in 20 minutes per game are solid, especially for a rookie with those minutes. However, what breakout aficionados will want to look at is that last month of the 2013-14 NBA season. Over the Celtics' eight April games, Olynyk went for 16.6 points and 7.3 rebounds in 25.8 minutes per game, shooting 54.7 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from beyond the arc.
While that's a small sample size, his entire career is arguably a small sample size. The point is that Olynyk took that opportunity and ran with it. Whether the competition level fell off or he just got hot, it was an impressive run at the end of a solid rookie season.
Given the early reports on how he is looking in October, it shouldn't be a huge stretch to think Olynyk has a chance to do something special in his second NBA season. If he can win a starting spot in the frontcourt, either at power forward or center coming out of training camp, Olynyk will play the minutes to be successful.
In 2013-14 he proved that he can play well with a pass-first point guard, garnering 51 made shots off Phil Pressey assists, according to NBA.com. Rajon Rondo assisted on 20 of Olynyk's field goals, a solid number given the limited time the two practiced and played together. If he gets almost a full season in a starting lineup with Rondo, Olynyk has the type of diverse offensive game that could thrive in that situation.
MassLive's Jay King reports that Olynyk is entering training camp "with a leaner, stronger body," after spending much of his summer at Boston's practice facility in Waltham, Massachusetts.
"It's good when your progress trends upward and not downward," Olynyk said in King's piece. "That was kind of my goal throughout (last) year: just keep getting better every day."
A strong finish to his rookie year, coupled with a strong attitude, a strong summer, strong early returns from training camp and the mere fact that Olynyk having a really good sophomore campaign would be incredibly fun to watch, and you have Boston's best shot at a breakout player for the 2014-15 NBA season.
All in on Kelly or think I'm crazy, let me know...
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