Marcus Smart in Prime Position to Benefit from Rajon Rondo's Injury
For Rajon Rondo, the timing of his broken hand stinks. It should force him to miss training camp and some early regular-season action.
But every injury creates an opportunity, and in this case, it's going to good use.
Rookie Marcus Smart should now be looking at a major bump in minutes in Rondo's absence—valuable minutes as the Boston Celtics' primary decision-maker.
Decision-making was Smart's glaring weakness at Oklahoma State. He put up all sorts of numbers, but his questionable pass-to-shot selection led to frustrating inefficiency.
Extra early-season reps can't hurt his development—maybe the team's record, but not Smart's transition and path into the pros.
He can certainly hold his own from a physical standpoint.
While there are rookies who typically need to be eased in, Smart isn't one of them. Having weighed in at 227 pounds and measured a 6'9" wingspan at the NBA combine, his fearless, punishing style of play should suit him well as a rookie.
Chances are Smart even gives this team a defensive boost right away. He's a guy who can make things happen with ball pressure, anticipation and energy.
But in terms of his offensive development, it's important that Smart gets time playing on the ball because that's where his upside lies. He's only 6'3.25", and he struggles as a shooter, which limits his upside at the 2-guard position.
He'll still get minutes there, thanks to his dangerous attack game and two-way versatility, but if the Celtics want to get the most out of Smart long term, it's gotta be at point guard. That's the position where all his upside lies, given the mismatch he's got the potential to present once he refines his playmaking and floor game.
Despite his strong passing instincts, Smart doesn't have all that much experience running the point. He was a 2-guard in high school, and in college, he was forced into more of a score-first role.
His assist-to-turnover ratios and pure-point ratings were both subpar in each of his two years in college. He actually spent time all over the floor, from the point to the wing to the post.
Last season, Smart was only used in pick-and-roll sets on 21.5 percent of his possessions at Oklahoma State, per DraftExpress' Matt Kamalsky. Most of his assist opportunities as a playmaker were of the drive-and-kick variety.
And the quicker he realizes how important a pull-up jumper can be for point guards, the better. He only hit 28.8 percent of his pull-ups (via DraftExpress' Kamalsky) last season. This is a shot he'll need to capitalize on in the pros, particularly as a ball-handler dribbling over screens.
As a shooter, Smart is capable—just not consistent or reliable. And part of that has to do with shot selection. Smart ultimately took more contested shots than open ones last season, per DraftExpress' Kamalsky, a likely factor in his 42.2 percent field-goal clip.
He at least seems to understand the problem. "Take better shots. I took a lot of tough shots in college," Smart said when asked how he plans on improving as a shooter, via the Boston Celtics' Twitter.
With Phil Pressey and Evan Turner, two guys who can handle the rock while Rondo is out of the lineup, Smart is bound to see minutes off the ball as well, a role that really requires outside shot-making.
Sharing a backcourt with Pressey in Orlando Summer League, Smart's erratic jumper contributed to his ugly 29.4 percent field-goal clip. Maybe the early reps could give him the chance to ultimately knock down some shots and build his confidence.
Still, if Smart is ever going to evolve into an adequate shooter, it's probably not going to happen for a few years.
At the end of the day, this opportunity with Rondo out ultimately allows Smart to start the trial-and-error process early in his career—to see what works versus what doesn't.
It's picking up the speed at which defenders hedge or learning when to take a floater over a hard drive. It's getting down the timing as a pick-and-roll facilitator and figuring out when to push the tempo.
All of these adjustments require on-the-job training, and with Rondo on the shelf, Smart should benefit from the extra touches.
It's likely to result in bumps and mistakes while he gets his feet wet, but Rondo won't be out for long. The opportunity would just be a taste of what it's like to run an NBA offense against a starting NBA unit.
When Rondo returns, which could be around two weeks into the season, Smart will be able to retreat back into a secondary role to process and hopefully apply what he's learned as a featured playmaker.
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