Rajon Rondo Trade Will Be More Difficult Now Than Ever for Boston Celtics

The rocky road ahead for the Boston Celtics and franchise face Rajon Rondo just grew even more treacherous.

Trading the mercurial floor general  was never going to be easy. Not with his troubling track record that includes run-ins with coaches and teammates, a torn ACL that plagued his production last season and stats that might not be as strong as they seem.

But moving the obstreperous point guard has never been as difficult as it is now that he'll be sidelined for the next six-to-eight weeks with a broken left finger. He was still working to repair his reputation after last year’s disappointing showing, and now he’ll have to do so without the benefit of training camp, the preseason and possibly as much as the first month of the 2014-15 campaign.

Considering the package the Celtics would need to receive in return for a trade to pay off on their end, Rondo’s trade value is a long way from where it has to be. This latest setback could drag it down even further, as it might be a while before he starts rubbing elbows with the NBA elites again—assuming he even gets back to that level.

While the time frame is an estimate, CelticsBlog's Kevin O'Connor found that the five players who underwent surgery to address a metacarpal bone injury in recent seasons missed an average of 41.6 days. Of those five—Carlos Boozer, Kevin Love, Hedo Turkoglu, Patrick Beverley and Manu Ginobili—two of them (Love and Turkoglu) reinjured their hands after their initial return.

Love was plagued by the injury throughout the 2012-13 season, shooting just 35.2 percent from the field in his 18 games, though he did suffer two separate fractures during that year. Ginobili lost a little over a month the previous season to his injury, but he showed no lingering effects and compiled a .513/.384/.859 shooting slash after his return.

Rondo went under the knife last Friday. A six-week absence would cost him four regular-season games. An additional two weeks out of action would keep him out of another six contests.

In the context of an 82-game campaign, this might seem like minimal damage. But with so much riding on this season for both Rondo and the Celtics, this has the potential to become a crushing blow.

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"The beginning of the season is the worst time to sit out, especially when it involves losing out on those crucial team-building opportunities that come just prior to the first game's opening tipoff," wrote Bleacher Report's Adam Fromal.

For Rondo, this won't be as simple as getting back on a bicycle after a lengthy layoff.

There are new players around him, including his potential replacement in lottery pick Marcus Smart. Rondo will miss out on head coach Brad Stevens' training camp for the second consecutive year, and that could prove problematic as Rondo said Stevens has a new system to put in place, per Scott Souza of the MetroWest Daily News:

There is no way to get that developmental time back.

He can keep himself in shape, but none of his workouts can replicate NBA game speed. He will have to attempt to hit the ground running with and against players who could have as much as an entire month of regular-season contests under their belts.

That transition won't likely be a smooth one. He had 30 outings to find his form in 2013-14 and never did seem particularly comfortable. He shot 40.1 percent from the field in his first 15 games back and 40.4 percent in his last 15.

The Celtics can't afford to have him stumble out of the gate this time around. While they technically have until next summer to decide his future, February's trade deadline looms large as Boston's last possible chance to bring back something in return for its franchise face.

That is when the Celtics must really make their call, assuming that bridge hasn't already been crossed, of course. There has been some speculation over whether Rondo or the Celtics have left the door open to a potential long-term relationship.

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Publicly, both have stressed it's still an option.

"We expect Rajon to be in Boston for the long term," Celtics president of basketball operations Danny Ainge said, via Comcast SportsNet. "Does that need to be asked anymore by anybody every again?"

Consider that latter portion wishful thinking on the executive's part. Those questions will persist until something official comes across the transactions log, be that a blockbuster trade or a significant contract extension.

At Celtics media day on Monday, Rondo expressed his desire to stick with the team going forward, per ESPN Boston's Chris Forsberg:

It's all very definitive—except, it isn't that at all.

Consider the current situation.

Boston is Rondo's current home. Until he officially has a new one lined up, there is no incentive for him to start distancing himself from the city.

Unless, of course, he can do so behind closed doors. According to ESPN Boston's Jackie MacMullan, Rondo has already started putting his exit in motion.

"He's told them he wants out," MacMullan said during a behind-the-scenes portion of ESPN's Around The Horn, via CBS Sports' James Herbert. "And no one believes me, but that's the truth."

If that's the case, the Celtics have reasons to quietly shop Rondo. But they need to prize him publicly until something takes place, or they risk seeing his value plummet to the point that any trade is no longer worth their while.

"If something did crop up that would bring in a young potential superstar, the Celtics would have to reconsider their stance against dealing Rondo—but with Rondo posting only so-so-numbers as he completed his rehab last year, his value is relatively low just now," wrote Sporting News' Sean Deveney.

That's what makes Rondo's latest injury so deflating. He needed this season to help him cash in on the free-agent market next summer. The Celtics had to have a strong year from him to either feel good about keeping him for the long haul or, more likely, furthering their rebuilding plan by getting a collection of future assets in return.

Ideally, Rondo would have proved himself last season, and the Celtics could have flipped him over the summer to avoid a year-long media frenzy.

That obviously never happened, and now there are some serious concerns over whether it ever will. If it takes some time for Rondo to find his groove, the Celtics could have a hard time moving him even if that is their desired outcome.

"Teams want to see him perform before putting much into a trade offer," noted NBC Sports' Kurt Helin. "Now they are going to wait longer and be watching two injuries."

It's almost impossible to find a silver lining in this injury.

If one does exist, it's probably the added exposure Smart should receive in Rondo's absence. Even then, it's hard to say what the best-case scenario would be.

Say Smart explodes out of the gate and creates some offensive harmony with his teammates. Then, what happens when Rondo comes back? Would Smart's development be stunted in order to help Rondo's trade market? Or would the four-time All-Star be trapped behind the rookie, watching his potential free-agency earnings diminish in a reduced role on a team that could struggle to win 30 games?

Or what if Smart cannot rise to the occasion and looks incapable of ever effectively replacing Rondo? Would that motivate the Celtics to keep a 28-year-old whose best days may be finished before the team's even start?

Ainge already told reporters at media day he knows it's going to cost whichever team winds up paying the point guard, via Gary Washburn of The Boston Globe:

The Celtics don't need a max contract on their books. Not one who clearly needs to find his way to a win-now roster, at least.

It's hard to say if Rondo can perform at a level high enough to warrant that type of financial commitment. No matter what type of offers get put in front of him, though, he seems eager to explore all of his options in free agency.

"It's kind of like college all over again, with recruiting," he told Washburn. "Only times 50 because they have a ton of money to throw at the guys and they don't have any restrictions on what they can do."

If the trade deadline passes without any movement on the Rondo front, the Celtics will have completely lost control of this situation. Even if there is mutual interest of keeping the relationship alive, it might not be enough to keep him from being overwhelmed by another suitor.

There are risks involved with either outcome, and Rondo's injury only further complicates the matter. That's a potentially major issue, even if the injury itself feels like a relatively minor one.