Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings: Betting Odds Analysis and Pick Prediction

The Atlanta Falcons are 5-1 against the spread the last six times they've visited an NFC North team. The Minnesota Vikings are 8-2 both straight up and ATS the last 10 times they've been lined as home dogs.

The Vikes are short home dogs again when they host the Falcons on Sunday afternoon at TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis.

Point spread: The Falcons opened as 2.5-point favorites; the total was 47 (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 25.9-21.7 Falcons

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

After a disastrous 2013 campaign, the Falcons are 2-1 both SU and ATS this year. They opened with a big divisional home win over rival New Orleans, suffered a bit of a letdown in a loss at Cincinnati but bounced back last Thursday to trounce Tampa Bay 56-14, easily covering the spread as seven-point home favorites.

Atlanta scored three minutes into the game against the Bucs, led 35-0 at the half, outgained Tampa by 270 yards and returned both an interception and a punt for scores. And that was without wide receiver Roddy White, who missed the game with a bad hamstring but is expected to return this week.

Through three games, the Falcons have reaped the benefit of better health, especially on offense, leading the league in yardage and scoring.

Why the Vikings can cover the spread

The Vikings opened with a road win over the Rams and then suffered a letdown against the Patriots. Then, last week, without Adrian Peterson, they lost a tough game at New Orleans 20-9, missing the cover by a point as 10-point dogs.

Minnesota fell behind the Saints 13-0 early but only allowed one more touchdown, early in the fourth quarter, to a New Orleans team known for piling up points inside the Superdome. The Vikings defense limited the Saints to 108 yards on 32 rushes and even beat up Drew Brees a little bit.

And rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, subbing for an injured Matt Cassel, didn't look too bad in his first official NFL action, completing 12 of 20 passes for 150 yards and rushing for 27 more.

Smart Pick

Bridgewater may be the QB of the future for Minnesota, but at the moment, he's just a rookie going through a learning curve. Can he make the reads? Can he make the third-down throws? Will he hang in the pocket and be patient, or will he bolt at the first sign of pressure?

A young quarterback's best friend is a good running game, but Bridgewater and the Vikings are now without Peterson, maybe forever. On the other side of this matchup, the Atlanta offense has already scored 11 touchdowns this season.

So the pick here is to agree with the Odds Shark picks computer and go with the visiting Falcons, giving the points.

Trends

• Atlanta is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road.
• Vikings 8-2 SU and ATS last 10 games as home underdogs.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.