USC vs. Arizona State Complete Game Preview

WHEN: Saturday, Oct. 4, 7:30 p.m. ET

WHERE: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

TV: Fox

Saturday’s Pac-12 South matchup pitting No. 16-ranked USC vs. Arizona State features teams with matching 3-1 overall records. However, the conference implications on the line could not be much more different for each side.

USC is in pursuit of a 3-0 start to Pac-12 play, coming off a 35-10 rout of Oregon State in Week 5. Conversely, Arizona State is trying to avoid an 0-2 hole in the league.

The Sun Devils opened their Pac-12 slate with a thud last week, dropping a 62-27 decision at home to UCLA. A second consecutive loss within the division would put the reigning South champions squarely behind the eight ball.

Arizona State could be without starting quarterback Taylor Kelly, who missed the Sun Devils’ Week 5 loss with a foot injury. Sun Devils head coach Todd Graham said Kelly is "pretty questionable," via Doug Haller of the Arizona Republic. 

Backup Mike Bercovici passed for 488 yards and three touchdowns in his first career start last week. Bercovici’s ability—or inability—to end USC’s streak of four games without surrendering a passing touchdown may tell the story of this week’s contest.

The USC defense will have plenty of motivation to shut down the Sun Devils offense, however. The 62 points Arizona State scored in last year’s meeting with USC tied the most ever given up by the Trojans.

USC Keys to Victory

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

Stop Arizona State’s Zone Read

Defending zone-read offenses has consistently plagued USC over the past three seasons. The Trojans’ struggles against option-based attacks continued in Week 3, when Boston College’s mobile quarterback, Tyler Murphy, led the Eagles to 452 rushing yards and a 37-31 upset victory.

"

Tyler Murphy 66 yards to the house for #BC! The upset of #9 #USC is happening! https://t.co/mPXVo8J8Ce

— XFINITY Sports (@XFINITYSports) September 14, 2014"

Arizona State similarly exploited USC’s deficiencies against the zone read in last year’s contest. The quarterback, Kelly, passed for 351 yards and added another 79 rushing.

Arizona State may once again be without Kelly, but head coach Steve Sarkisian said on his conference call Sunday that the Sun Devils’ attack isn’t much different with Bercovici behind center.

"Taylor's a wonderful player. I love watching him play," he said. "Mike went in and really played a good football game against UCLA. There's a handful of plays he'd love to have back, but for a guy making his first career start, and playing the way he played, I thought he played tremendous.

"We're not going to get a whole lot of different offense with Taylor than with Mike," Sarkisian added. "We'll get a few more quarterback run stuff [with Kelly], but for the most part, Arizona State's going to run [its] offense." 

Regardless of which quarterback it sees, as mentioned in one of my pieces from a few weeks ago, USC believes containing the zone read is a simple formula. Sophomore safety Su’a Cravens said last week that a key to remedying USC’s problems with the scheme was a matter of players “doing [their] jobs.”

Establish Offensive Rhythm Early

Despite the much different outcome, USC’s win over Oregon State bore one alarmingly similar quality to the Trojans’ loss at Boston College. In both games, the USC offense was sometimes sputtered.

The Trojans did not mount an offensive scoring drive until midway through the second quarter against Oregon State, then went scoreless in the third quarter.

“We need to find our rhythm quicker than we did [against Oregon State],” Sarkisian said. “It took a while to get going. I think we can improve upon that.”

Against Arizona State’s uptempo style, USC cannot afford long stretches without points.

Sarkisian credited USC’s own heightened tempo for the Trojans’ fourth-quarter improvements against Oregon State. Matching Arizona State’s speed could prove crucial to this Saturday’s outcome.

Arizona State Keys to Victory

Matt York/Associated Press

Tackle, Tackle, Tackle

UCLA turned short-yardage gains into back-breaking plays last week, in large part due to Arizona State’s shoddy tackling.

"

GIF - Eldridge Massington goes 78 yards for the TD #UCLA http://t.co/ltqHqq0Z9i

— FanSided GIF (@FanSidedGIF) September 26, 2014"

Haller wrote the Sun Devils missed 17 tackles by his count. On Sunday, Graham addressed the issue, as Haller reports:

"

There was too much of the missed tackling where we were just out of control, and we haven't done that. That's coaching or maybe us getting them too hyped up. I don't know what it is, but we talked a lot about that.

"

Arizona State’s defense has an obvious weakness to exploit, but the Trojans need to improve their collective ability to break tackles in order to take advantage.

“We’re getting tackled too easily for how talented we are,” Sarkisian said. “That’s a big point of emphasis this week.”

Avoid Self-Inflicted Blunders

While this key ties into Arizona State’s tackling, self-inflicted mistakes tie into the bigger picture of problems that plagued the team in its Pac-12 opener.

Arizona State gave up a 95-yard pick-six just before halftime, which was the culmination of a comedy of errors on the Sun Devils’ final drive of the first half. Clock mismanagement forced them to take a rushed shot at the end zone. 

Bercovici's telegraphed pass was picked off by Ishmael Adams and taken the other way, turning a potential tie game into a two-score lead for the Bruins. 

"

Ishmael Adams and UCLA ran away from Arizona State in 62-27 rout. STORY: http://t.co/1XqOUbVkQk https://t.co/xDhxMugoTl

— Dr. Saturday (@YahooDrSaturday) September 26, 2014"

The Sun Devils cannot afford similar errors against USC, or the result will look very much the same. 

USC Players to Watch

Jeff Gross/Getty Images

OFFENSE

RB Justin Davis

Running back Justin Davis played arguably the best game of his young college career last season at Arizona State. Then a freshman, Davis was a bright spot in the loss, piling up 122 yards rushing on just 10 carries. Three of his runs went for touchdowns.

Davis was slow getting back to speed at the start of the 2014 season. He missed more than 10 months of game action due to injury, and the rust showed. But Sarkisian said jump-starting him was a focus of USC’s strategy for Oregon State, and it paid dividends.

He finished the night with 15 carries for 82 yards and a touchdown. Davis added a second score on a 16-yard reception from quarterback Cody Kessler.

Davis’ two-way ability as both a ball-carrier and receiver is central to USC’s game plan, Sarkisian said before the season. As the sophomore gains more confidence, expect further opportunities for him—starting this week against Arizona State.

TE Bryce Dixon

Freshman tight end Bryce Dixon had one of the plays of the night for USC last week, leaping backward to grab a 31-yard bomb from Kessler. The reception helped set up the Trojans' first offensive score of the night. 

"

USC Freshman Bryce Dixon makes a great catch https://t.co/2WtQELx6UZ

— CFBZ (@CFBZ) September 28, 2014"

“Bryce had a heck of a play on third down on a seam route,” Sarkisian said of the play. 

Integrating more passes to the tight ends is something Sarkisian said the Trojans have tried to do and will continue going forward. 

“We called plenty of stuff for them in previous weeks, but the coverage told us the ball shouldn’t go other, or the ball just didn’t go there for whatever reason," he said. 

Establishing Dixon as a pass-catching threat up the middle should open the sidelines more for wide receiver Nelson Agholor and running backs Javorius "Buck" Allen and Davis to do more damage. 

DEFENSE

S Su’a Cravens

Cravens was named USC’s Player of the Game against Oregon State and with good reason. He returned an interception 31 yards for a touchdown, made a tackle for loss and recorded a sack.

"

The #TrojanFamily voted Su'a Cravens (@ovo_suu) the @SoCaliFord Trojan of the Game. #FightOn pic.twitter.com/4EoxQPDQ7A

— USC Trojans (@USC_Athletics) September 28, 2014"

Perhaps most impressive is that Cravens did his damage in a somewhat limited capacity. He did not appear in nickel packages, something Sarkisian said will change going forward.

“We’d like for him to have an increased role,” Sarkisian said. “It’ll be a point of emphasis of ours this week to keep him on the field and continue to be active for us.”

DL Leonard Williams

USC cornerback Chris Hawkins told me that part of Boston College’s success with the zone read against the Trojans defense was its strategy for star defensive lineman Leonard Williams.

The Eagles opted not to block Williams, instead allowing his approach at the point of attack dictate where their option plays went.   

Williams is a primary catalyst to the USC defense. He led the charge up front against Oregon State and had Beavers quarterback Sean Mannion under consistent pressure. His ability to do likewise Saturday against Arizona State’s still somewhat untested Bercovici should similarly set the tone. 

Arizona State Players to Watch

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

OFFENSE

Quarterbacks

Todd Graham has yet to issue a definitive statement on Arizona State’s starting quarterback for this week as of publish. Though Sarkisian said USC is preparing for schemes, Kelly and Bercovici do play different enough styles that the Trojans will have to adjust accordingly. 

Kelly is more mobile, which opens offensive coordinator Mike Norvell's playbook for more option-based calls. Bercovici is a capable passer, as demonstrated in his effort against UCLA.  

Based on its prior performances this season, USC is better suited to stop the latter. Still, there's plenty of concern in defending a pass-heavier Sun Devils attack. 

Arizona State has one of the most talented wide receivers in the Pac-12 in Jaelen Strong, and running back D.J. Foster is a dangerous playmaker when catching passes out of the backfield. 

Whomever USC sees lined up behind center, Arizona State has the potential to put up big points.  

RB D.J. Foster

Arizona State’s version of the spread offense runs largely through Foster. The running back can run through the tackles as a ball-carrier or stretch the defense on the periphery as a receiver, and Norvell uses him in both capacities effectively.

UCLA was successful in limiting the Arizona State offense by focusing its game plan largely on containing Foster. The result was a 3.3 yards-per-carry average, which was more than six yards below his output in the Sun Devils’ previous three games.

Last year, Foster gashed USC for 80 yards on just three receptions and rushed for another 50 yards as a change-of-pace option behind Marion Grice. Now functioning as the offense's primary weapon, as Foster goes, so too goes Arizona State. 

DEFENSE 

LB D.J. Calhoun

The Sun Devils defense is one of the youngest in the Pac-12, and its inexperience was readily apparent last week.

That Arizona State is collectively younger than much of its competition won’t change as the season progresses. What the Sun Devils need to be competitive is for young players to step up, and among the leading candidates is linebacker D.J. Calhoun.

Calhoun is among the more athletic playmakers in Arizona State’s defensive rotation. The Sun Devils will need him to keep USC rushers Allen and Davis contained in the second level, or they risk surrendering big plays similar to those that doomed Arizona State last week.

What They're Saying

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

USC 

"I wasn't here for all of that. I know it was a relatively emotional sequencing of events. I do know we’ve got a group that is very prideful. They’re proud to put our uniform on every Saturday and go represent the Trojans. I’m sure there’s probably a little bit of that in there, that they want to go out and redeem themselves to some degree, but that won’t be a focus”—Sarkisian on USC using last year’s 62-41 loss to Arizona State as motivation this week.

“We’re undefeated in conference. It was a bad loss against Boston College, but this was a good win. Now we just have to keep moving forward, game-by-game”—Williams following the win against Oregon State.  

“That was definitely a punch in the face. We went into the bye week practice ready to prepare our tails off and today, get that bad taste out of our mouths. Just moving forward is the biggest thing for us”—linebacker Hayes Pullard on using the Boston College loss as motivation.

ARIZONA STATE

Graham following the loss to UCLA, via Reuters:

"

That was embarrassing. It was a frustrating night. ...We made a lot of catastrophic mistakes. We couldn't tackle, and I thought we even got tired. I thought they would get tired. We only played 58 plays on defense, and we struggled to get lined up at times. The standard that we set here was not met tonight.

"

Bercovici on preparing for USC, via Jeff Metcalfe of the Arizona Republic:

"

Growing up in Los Angeles, I know a lot of the kids on the team, I know where they come from, I know their athletic talent. We played against that defensive coordinator at Washington last year. You look to see how we would attack things. Basically they're an athletic team, they've got good size across the entire board. We just need to do what we do and we'll move the chains on them. 

"

Prediction

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

Both Arizona State and USC have clearly defined flaws that could deny either victory this week.

USC was outstanding defensively against Oregon State's traditional offensive style, but the Trojans still must prove they are capable of slowing a zone-read-based attack. For Arizona State, its inexperience became all too apparent when thrust into the spotlight for the first time on the season. 

The Sun Devils will once again be on a big stage when they enter the Coliseum, a venue in which no Arizona State team has won since 1999. 

While Arizona State's offensive scheme could give USC trouble, the roles are reversed on the other side of the ball. That translates into a potential track meet, much like last year's encounter.

A repeat of the 2013 installment of USC vs. Arizona State might not seem ideal for the Trojans, but USC simply matches up better for that style of game this year. Look for Allen and Davis to have huge games to pace the offense and the defense to force Arizona State into just enough mistakes to give the Trojans the room they need to start Pac-12 play 3-0.

Prediction: USC 42, Arizona State 31  

Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise cited. Statistics courtesy of CFBstats.com.