Missouri Tigers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks: Betting Odds, Analysis, Prediction

The South Carolina Gamecocks carry a three-game winning streak into this SEC matchup with the Missouri Tigers Saturday, but they have struggled to cover the spread recently.

The Gamecocks are just 1-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last four games following a 48-34 win against the Vanderbilt Commodores last week as 21.5-point road favorites.

Point spread: The Gamecocks opened as 5.5-point favorites at Williams-Brice Stadium, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. The total was 61.5 points (Line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 38.6-28.5 Gamecocks

Why the Missouri Tigers can cover the spread

The Tigers were playing well this season, unbeaten in their first three games, before suffering a surprising 31-27 setback at home to the Indiana Hoosiers last week in the final minute. Mizzou lost to Indiana as a 14.5-point favorite and had covered its previous two games easily, beating Toledo and Central Florida by a combined score of 87-34.

A costly pass interference penalty on a 4th-and-6 play kept the game-winning drive alive for the Hoosiers and spoiled a great performance from Tigers quarterback Maty Mauk, who threw for 326 yards and two touchdowns in the losing effort.

Still, Missouri has done well in SEC road games, going 6-1 ATS in the last seven. The Tigers are also 7-2-1 ATS in their past 10 games as road underdogs.

Why the South Carolina Gamecocks can cover the spread

Since losing 52-28 at home to the undefeated Texas A&M Aggies in the season opener for both teams August 28, South Carolina has played much better offensively, averaging nearly 40 points per game.

The issue for South Carolina this season has been the team’s defense, which has still surrendered an average of almost 31 points during the winning streak. The Gamecocks allowed Vandy to jump out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter last week before scoring 24 unanswered points to take control. Their defense did have an interception return for a TD and seems to play to the level of its opponent.

While South Carolina has dropped three of four ATS, the team had covered five of its previous six, so it’s just a matter of time before the Gamecocks turn it around.

Smart Pick

Outside of the season-opening loss to Texas A&M, South Carolina has played well when motivated. The Gamecocks showed their mettle in coming back at Vanderbilt and beat the Georgia Bulldogs as 6.5-point home underdogs in their last game at Williams-Brice Stadium.

They also defeated a good East Carolina team 33-23 back on September 6, and that non-cover looks a lot better now that the Pirates are 3-1 after a 70-41 rout of the North Carolina Tar Heels. South Carolina handed Mizzou its only regular-season loss last year 27-24 in overtime as a three-point road underdog.

The Tigers have been playing over their heads this season and finally got caught. Now, they will finally play their first SEC game of the year, and the Gamecocks should win by double digits.

Trends

• Missouri is 6-1 straight up in its last seven games on the road.
• The total has gone over in four of South Carolina's last five games.

Note: All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates, and get the free odds tracker app.