Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts: Breaking Down Indianapolis' Game Plan

The Indianapolis Colts are back in the win column, but there's no time to admire their 44-17 drubbing of the Jacksonville Jaguars any longer. 

As much fun as it was to review the tape of a blowout, the Tennessee Titans are coming to town, and the Colts still have work to do in order to get back where they belong: the top of the AFC South. Playing in the AFC South is a cure for struggles, and Jacksonville was as good of an example as any in that regard. 

Now comes the Titans, a team that's given the Colts little worry over the years. 

Since 2009, the Colts are 9-1 against Tennessee, with the sole loss coming in 2011 when the Colts went 2-14. That season, if you'll recall, the Titans were the first team that the Colts defeated, winning 27-13 at home behind an astounding game-clinching run from Donald Brown: 

Since 2003, the only time the Colts have lost at home to Tennessee was a meaningless December game in 2007 when Jim Sorgi threw the ball 24 times (for only 68 yards!). 

With Andrew Luck at the helm, the Colts have gotten used to close wins, and Tennessee is one of the most victimized opponents. All four of the games have been won by single digits, epitomized by Luck's first game against Tennessee, a 19-13 overtime win at LP Field in 2012. 

Now, with legitimate concerns arising against good opponents in Weeks 1 and 2, the Colts look to assuage those fears against their divisional opponents. So how can they roll the success they had against Jacksonville into this week's matchup? 

Offense: Stretch the field, Run through Space and Utilize Play Action

When you look at the numbers, it's easy to assume that the Colts' game plan will include running heavily against the Tennessee Titans. 

The Titans rank fourth in the league against the pass, according to Football Outsider's DVOA, but 30th in the league against the run. Tennessee is allowing 4.4 yards per carry so far this season and over 134 yards per game. With the Colts' strong desire to have a power-run game and to dictate the linebackers' movements with play action, there's a legitimate claim to the need to run the ball well this week. 

But a closer look at the Titans' first three games reveals a stark reason why Tennessee may be struggling: Opponent. The Titans have faced two of the league's top rushing attacks over the last two weeks in Cincinnati and Dallas, two teams that combine powerful, explosive running backs with overwhelming offensive lines. 

The Colts don't quite match that profile. 

Don't get me wrong, the Colts have shown some positive signs on the ground this season, especially with Ahmad Bradshaw, whose 6.0 yard-per-carry average is second in the league for backs with at least 20 carries. 

Stat	Reference	Number	League Rank
Yards Per Carry	NFL.com	6.0	2
Rushing DVOA	Football Outsiders	23.5%	6
Receiving DVOA	Football Outsiders	67.3%	2
Receiving DYAR	Football Outsiders	80	1
Expected Points Added	Advanced Football Analytics	15.4	1
Yards after Contact/ Rush	Pro Football Focus	3.5	4
Elusive Rating	Pro Football Focus	104.6	3
Yards Per Route Run	Pro Football Focus	1.97	9
Pass Blocking Efficiency	Pro Football Focus	100.0	1
Total Grade	Pro Football Focus	+3.7	3

Bradshaw has been phenomenal in the first three weeks of the season, and expect the Colts to attempt to get him and Trent Richardson going early and often. Even when the Colts go pass-first, they rely on play action to force the linebackers to pause, something that worked well against Jacksonville last week. 

But the Titans linebackers are much better than those in Jacksonville, and the Titans also have another weapon: Bernard Pollard.

But the Titans won't be afraid to attempt to counteract running back and tight end effectiveness by bringing Pollard into the box to guard against both the run game and the running backs leaking into the flat for passes. Pollard has been a big reason why the Titans are second in the league in opposing running back receiving DVOA. 

Last week, the Titans played quite a bit of single-high safety against the Bengals, which opened up some space for the passing game down the sidelines. 

NFL Game Rewind

On this play, for example, Dalton hit A.J. Green for a gain of 29 down the right sideline. Last week, Andrew Luck was 7-of-8 for 174 yards when throwing past 10 yards on the right side, and we could see him target that zone again this week.

But if the Colts can get one-on-one matchups on the left side, they would be wise to exploit them. The Titans are starting rookie corner Blidi Wreh-Wilson there in place of former Titan Alterraun Verner. Wreh-Wilson had an awful game last week and is currently Pro Football Focus' 95th-ranked cornerback out of 96.

T.Y. Hilton has had difficulty getting on track against the Titans in the past, averaging just 4.25 catches for 43.75 yards over four games against them. But if the Colts can get the Titans in that single-high safety look and exploit some favorable matchups, they could get a few deep shots in on their way to an early lead. 

If the Colts do have a one- or two-score lead late in the game, watch for them to seal the victory with some powerful running. Donald Brown ran for 94 yards (6.27 yards per carry) and two touchdowns in the two fourth quarters against Tennessee last season, closing out each one-score win with long fourth-quarter scoring drives. 

Defense: Control the Middle of the Field

The Colts have done a good job, for the most part, on the sidelines this season, with the cornerbacks starting the season strong. They should be able to handle the Titans receivers in one-on-one coverage, although they may need to roll a safety toward Greg Toler's side of the field if Justin Hunter is lined up across from him. 

The Colts have also been fairly stout against the run game, for the most part, especially in base packages. The defensive line for Indianapolis has done a good job of keeping the offensive push to a minimum, allowing very small lanes for opposing running backs.

But, the one thing they'll have to watch out for against Tennessee and Ken Whisenhunt is draws from shotgun, which were effective at times against Cincinnati last week. The Colts' linebackers can struggle in space, so if the Titans get the Colts in lighter fronts, they may find success getting Shonn Green, Dexter McCluster and Bishop Sankey out in the open. 

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

But the Colts' biggest struggles have come in the middle of the field, with the Colts linebackers and safeties struggling in coverage. The Colts are 29th in the league in tight ends receiving DVOA and 31st against running backs. 

While the Colts really only have to worry about Dexter McCluster in the passing game when it comes to running backs, tight end Delanie Walker could give the Colts real trouble. Zach Ertz and Julius Thomas combined for 11 catches for 190 yards and three touchdowns against the Colts in Weeks 1 and 2, and Walker is another big, athletic tight end. 

In standard-scoring leagues, Walker has the fifth-most points of any tight end, averaging nearly 78 yards per game and scoring twice in three games. Locker loves to look for Walker down the seam, finding him twice there against the Bengals last week for 40 yards. 

But Locker can be shaken, and has struggled greatly this season. He's currently 31st in DVOA at -26.7 percent, according to Football Outsiders. The Colts can combine their attacking of Locker with their defense against Walker with zone blitzes, something they used in the second half of the loss to Denver to limit Thomas after he shredded them in the first half. 

NFL Game Rewind

Zone blitzes, like the Cover 1 Robber or Inside Fire Zones like the one pictured above keep the Colts linebackers and safeties out of unfriendly man-coverage assignments with Walker, and also can make Locker uncomfortable by attacking him through A-gaps. Locker has a passer rating of just 54.2 when blitzed this season and throws for 5.1 yards per attempt, per Pro Football Focus.

Locker does have a minor wrist injury but is still expected to play at this point. If he can't go, the Titans will turn to Charlie Whitehurst. According to George Bremer of The Herald Bulletin, Whisenhunt doesn't expect the offense to change much if Whitehurst must play. 

No matter who quarterbacks the team, the fact remains that the Titans are several notches below the Colts. It's not quite as bad as the mismatch last week, but the Colts should still be able to take care of Tennessee, especially at home.

All statistics and snap counts come from Pro Football Focus (subscription required) and Pro Football Reference unless otherwise noted. All training camp observations were obtained firsthand by the reporter unless otherwise noted.

Kyle is an NFL and Indianapolis Colts analyst for Bleacher Report and the editor-in-chief of Colts Authority. Follow Kyle on Twitter for more stats, analysis and general NFL analysis.