Eagles vs 49ers: Breaking Down San Francisco's Game Plan

I have an unconventional, yet bold, strategy for the San Francisco 49ers in their crucial game against the Philadelphia Eagles this Sunday: trick Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh into thinking the game restarts at halftime.

For the halftime show, hire someone to sing the national anthem, and have the scoreboard operators “accidentally” reset everything to the beginning of the first quarter, with the score 0-0.  Have the team burst out of the tunnel to fireworks and a standing ovation. 

Whatever it takes to reset their play-calling to the way the games begin.

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

In the first halves of games this year, the 49ers have scored 59 points—that’s more than any other team in football.  In the second halves of games this year, the 49ers have scored three points—that’s less than any other team in football.

In other words, if the 49ers could play two first-halves every week, they’d be unstoppable Super Bowl juggernauts.  Some of this is splits happening; this kind of disparity between first- and second-half performance is nearly impossible to keep up.  The 49ers aren’t as good as they’ve looked in the first halves of games, and they aren’t as bad as they’ve looked in the second halves.

That doesn’t mean this is all random chance, however—there are trends and patterns that hold true in the play-calling in the first halves of games that simply haven’t carried over to the second half.  By seeing what the 49ers are doing right in the first half, and not doing in the second half, we can help come up with the proper game plan for this Sunday versus the Eagles.

LM Otero/Associated Press

First of all, let’s ignore the actual victory against the Dallas Cowboys.  While that was San Francisco’s most impressive win, the game was essentially over in the second quarter when Patrick Willis came down with his interception in the end zone.  Yes, they didn’t score in the second half, but that’s the proper time to take your foot off the gas and not show every trick in the bag.  Criticizing the 49ers for going conservative when the game is essentially over is counterproductive.

Let’s take a look at the play-calling in the other two games, sorted by half.

In the first half of those games, the 49ers have rushed 29 times for 141 yards and two touchdowns, an average of 4.9 yards per carry, with two touchdowns.  When they’ve chosen to pass, they are 24-for-37 for 238 yards, two touchdowns and one interception.

In the second halves of those games, the 49ers have only rushed 22 times for 70 yards—an average of just 3.2 yards per carry.  They’ve continued to pass it regularly, however, going 26-for-34 for 255 yards, with no touchdowns and two interceptions.  They’ve also been sacked five times, compared to zero in the first halves.

What the heck happens to the run game in the second halves of games, and why are pass-rushers getting to Kaepernick more often?  I think the two facts are related—because the 49ers are no longer good at rushing in the second half, it puts them in longer down-and-distance situations, which invites a bigger pass rush, and results in blitzers that even Colin Kaepernick can’t avoid.

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

It came to a head against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3, when 49ers running backs had only nine carries—Kaepernick rushed 13 times, more than Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde combined.  While Arizona has a ferocious run defense, that’s an incredible split; Niner backs had only two carries in the second half.

Contrary to the current trend in the NFL, then, if the 49ers want to open up their offense against the Eagles, they’d do well to run the ball a lot.  The 3-0 Eagles have allowed an average of 105.7 yards per game this season, with the Indianapolis Colts torching them for 169 on 38 carries.  I don’t think the 49ers need to necessarily get up to that many carries to have success, but there’s room to attack Philly on the ground.

Part of this comes down to the offensive line performing poorly in the second half.  You don’t go from 4.9 yards to 3.2 yards per carry just randomly; the offensive line has done a significantly worse job in the second half.  Are they getting tired?  That seems unlikely, based on past success as a unit and the individual talent of Joe Staley, Alex Boone and Mike Iupati.

There is the possibility, however, that Boone’s still working himself into game shape, after missing all of OTAs.  There’s also the possibility that halftime adjustments are wrecking reserve tackle Jonathan Martin, the still working-into-shape Boone and the inexperienced Daniel Kilgore at center.  It’s true that most of San Francisco’s problems have come on the right side of the line, where they’re averaging only 3.3 yards per carry, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), as opposed to 4.5 on the right. 

So, the solution is to run only to the left, right?

Tom Gannam/Associated Press

Well, no.  Obviously too much of anything is a bad thing and would cause the defense to stack that side, but as it stands, the 49ers have run 32 plays to the left and 35 plays to the right, excluding quarterback scrambles.  Weighting that a little more heavily to the left would allow the 49ers to the right-middle of the Eagles run defense, where right linebacker Mychal Kendricks is vulnerable. 

The possible return of Anthony Davis is also something that could boost efficiency on the right, making it a better situation all around.  Not abandoning the run in the second half will also go a long way towards keeping Colin Kaepernick upright—and he’s been darn good this season chucking the ball around.

It’s easy to pan Kaepernick for the three interceptions against the Chicago Bears, but one bad half does not a bad quarterback make—Joe Montana had eight such days in which he posted three INTs for the 49ers and Steve Young had five.

Of course, Kaepernick isn’t Montana or Young at this point in his career, but he’s been a very good quarterback so far this year.  Pro Football Focus’ QB rating has him the third-best signal-caller in football so far (subscription required), doing most of the work himself—65.1 percent of his passing yards have come through the air, rather than being yards after the catch.  This isn’t Andy Dalton hitting A.J. Green and letting him work; Kaepernick has been the most accurate passer (according to PFF metrics) in the NFL this season, and he's hit on 90 percent of his passes when pressured (again according to PFF’s tracking numbers).  That’s incredible.

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

What I hope to see against the Eagles in the passing game, then, is more of the hurry-up, no-huddle, spread formations the 49ers opened with against the Cardinals.  The 49ers scored touchdowns on their first two possessions, operating out of an empty backfield with five wide receivers.  

Putting a healthy Vernon Davis back into those sets instead of Derek Carrier or Brandon Lloyd will make the sets even more dynamic.  I think there’s room to improve still, however—keep the same no-huddle, uptempo look, but either move Bruce Ellington back into the backfield occasionally, or use Gore as a the fifth receiver option.  Adding the wrinkle that the 49ers might hand the ball off out of those no-huddle sets is going to go far to making the offense that more dynamic.

The 49ers don’t need to keep up their impressive first-half numbers if they’re going to win games this season; they just need to keep some of the offensive ingenuity and execution they’ve shown in the first halves of games carry over into half number two.  I think this is the week they put it all together and have a complete game and keep themselves in the forefront of the playoff race a quarter of the way though the season.

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him @BryKno on twitter.