Is Harrison Barnes Entering Make-or-Break Season with Golden State Warriors?
Harrison Barnes' perceived upside has been saving him for years.
It wasn't that big of a deal when Barnes underwhelmed his freshman season at North Carolina. Or when he returned his sophomore year, only to experience similar problems with inconsistency and ultimately shoot 32 percent from the floor in the NCAA tournament.
With that 6'8" textbook frame, smooth athleticism and all-around offensive game, Barnes' upside remained intact despite his somewhat unconvincing play.
And he was OK his rookie year in Golden State—9.2 points, 4.1 boards, 43.9 percent shooting—though Barnes still left something to be desired.
Regardless, his big-time NBA ceiling didn't go anywhere. And in 2012-13, he flashed enough promise to keep fans and coaches excited—even if that promise came in sporadic spurts and doses, like in the 2013 playoffs, when he averaged 16.1 points a game.
That April and May, Barnes finally appeared ready to break through as the star many had pegged him to be out of high school.
Until he didn't.
Barnes took a head-scratching step back as an NBA sophomore, having regressed or plateaued in a couple of key areas.
While it was disappointing to see his pedestrian scoring average stay roughly the same, the fact that his field-goal percentage dipped below 40 percent is really the bigger concern.
Though the bar has been set fairly high for Barnes since entering the national scene, given his previous status as an consensus top-five recruit, he's continuously come up short, whether it was at North Carolina or through two years in the pros.
What happens if he fails to make any progress as a third-year NBA forward?
His upside has to expire eventually. How long do we wait before concluding that Barnes' elevator simply wasn't built to reach the ceiling his talent projects?
Maybe former coach Mark Jackson just didn't know how to maximize Barnes' ability or put him in position to succeed. Maybe new coach Steve Kerr has the formula.
At just 22 years old, it's too early to write off Barnes, who's just trying to find a way to convert those flashes into every-game occurrences. We've seen the complete offensive repertoire, from three-point shooting to mid-range scoring and explosive drives to the rack. The next step is putting it all together, a step he's struggled to take.
Just studying his numbers and observing his tendencies, it's not tough to pinpoint where he's gone wrong.
As an on-ball, one-on-one scorer, Barnes has trouble getting to the basket, resulting in too many low-percentage jumpers—jumpers he's capable of hitting, just not with legitimate consistency.
He averaged just 2.9 drives per game this past season and ultimately shot only 27.2 percent on pull-up jumpers, a shot typically taken as a backup plan for getting to the basket.
Barnes' rookie year, 32.3 percent of his shots came at the rim. His sophomore year, that number fell to just 22.4 percent.
Off the ball, Barnes failed to capitalize as a shooter, having connected on just 40 percent of his catch-and-shoot jumpers and 37 percent of his spot-up threes. Those aren't horrible numbers, but given his struggles getting to the basket, Barnes can't afford to miss the good shots created for him by teammates.
Go ahead and blame the Warriors' ex-coaching staff for misusing Barnes in the offense. But the inaccurate shot-making is on him.
The problem or concern is that despite sporting textbook shooting mechanics, his jumper really hasn't improved much since 2010.
| True Shooting Percentage | Three-Point Percentage | Free-Throw Percentage | |
| 2013-14, Golden State | .486 | .347 | .718 |
| 2012-13, Golden State | .526 | .359 | .758 |
| 2011-12, North Carolina | .534 | .358 | .723 |
| 2010-11, North Carolina | .525 | .344 | .754 |
Barnes' three-point percentage has essentially been the same since his freshman year at North Carolina—right around average. His free-throw clip remains below average, while his true shooting percentage plummeted this year to an ugly 48.6 percent.
Obviously, Barnes will never reach his potential unless his shooting accuracy and consistency improve.
With a good-looking stroke, I'd like to think some of Barnes' shooting troubles are tied to confidence. He hasn't exactly been used much in Golden State's offense over the past two years—his usage rate has been under 18 percent in each.
Hopefully that changes under coach Kerr, who seems motivated to get the most out of Barnes and keep him heavily involved.
"Harrison is incredibly driven. So we’ve got big plans for him this year," Kerr told KNBR-680 (via CSNBayArea.com). "We think he can be a great player in this league...he’s going to continue to get better.”
It's not just his offensive game that needs fine-tuning. With Andre Iguodala in the starting lineup, the Warriors have been a much tougher team to score on than when Barnes has been in there, as outlined by RealGM's Benjamin Cantor. Feel free to add defense to the list of things in which Barnes must show improvement.
Overall, it would ultimately be bad news if he didn't take that next step in Year 3, considering how long he's been stuck on the same one. At some point, there aren't going to be any free passes left with Barnes' name on them.
Because upside only holds meaning for those capable of reaching it. There's no denying Barnes' NBA ceiling, but sooner or later, unless he finally takes off, we're going to have to rule that his developmental elevator is officially out of service.
Stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com unless otherwise noted.
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