Predicting Which 2014-15 NBA Rookies Will Be Studs or Duds
This 2014 NBA draft class has had all kinds of wacky expectations, but it seems naive to think each prospect will pan out.
We went ahead and separated the studs from the duds—the guys we expect to live up to the hype versus those set up to disappoint.
For the duds, we only went with guys taken in the lottery. Prospects like Tyler Ennis and James Young will probably spend most of their time on the bench or in the D-League next season. To label them duds would be unfair.
And these predictions are only taking the 2014-15 season into account—not each prospect's career outlook. Even if someone is labeled a dud as a rookie, that doesn't mean he can't transform into a stud over time.
High-profile prospects not listed ultimately fell between stud and dud.
Stud: Jabari Parker, Milwaukee Bucks
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Jabari Parker looked like a strong 2015 Rookie of the Year candidate just a few weeks into his freshman season at Duke.
And that hasn't changed since he's been drafted by Milwaukee, where he'll have plenty of touches and offensive freedom in the Bucks offense.
With that 6'8, 235-pound frame, above-average athleticism and polished inside-out game, Parker should be ready to rock and roll right away. He averaged 15.6 points and 8.2 boards in Las Vegas Summer League, where we saw everything from step-back jumpers, nifty drives, body-control finishes and hard-fought buckets in the post.
And just like he did at Duke when he led the ACC in boards, Parker was active and aggressive on the glass.
His efficiency will likely fall off but not his production. Look for Parker to lead all rookies in points, rebounds and minutes next season.
Dud: Aaron Gordon, Orlando Magic
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I wouldn't bet on Aaron Gordon making much of a rookie impact. Not with Channing Frye joining an Orlando frontcourt that already consists of Tobias Harris, Andrew Nicholson and Moe Harkless.
Either way, Gordon probably isn't ready to offer much offensively as a pro.
At this point, his athletic ability is far ahead of his skill set. Gordon shot 35 percent from the floor and finished 0-of-10 from downtown during summer league after making just 16 threes as a freshman, shooting 42.2 percent from the stripe and hitting just 27.5 percent of his two-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math.
Though he looks comfortable handling the ball in the open floor, that changes in traffic. He's not a guy who's capable of creating against a set half-court defense. His one-on-one game is limited, both facing the rim on the perimeter and with his back to it in the post.
As a 19-year-old rookie, Gordon's value to the Magic comes mostly on defense, where he's got the foot speed, size and quickness to guard big men or wings.
But until his offensive game develops and that jumper comes around, don't expect much offensive production from the young player early on in his career.
Stud: Nerlens Noel, Philadelphia 76ers
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Nerlens Noel looked like a stud prior to tearing his ACL in 2013. As long as he's 100 percent recovered, that projection shouldn't change.
Whether you're buying into Noel as a new-and-improved offensive player, his terrific summer league showing suggests he's healthy and in shape. Noel was getting out on the break, flying above the rim, swatting shots inside and even finishing after contact.
Forget about his skills at this point—based on his physical tools, athleticism, motor and instincts alone, Noel should still be capable of making an impact in the paint.
But what if Noel improved his touch while missing out on 18 months of game play? What if he polished up his footwork and added some moves to the repertoire?
During summer league, Noel converted on a number of lefty jump hooks, coordinated drives and even a mid-range jumper. If these become every-game occurrences, we could be looking at this year's biggest Rookie of the Year sleeper.
Either way, Noel appears lined up to shine in Philadelphia's up-and-down system.
Stud: Andrew Wiggins, Minnesota Timberwolves
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The table should be set for Andrew Wiggins, who's likely to have all the offensive freedom he could possibly want in Minnesota.
Even without it, he still managed to average 17.1 points in a loaded Kansas lineup while lacking significant offensive polish. And though the NBA is obviously a whole other level of competition, you could argue its open setting is better suited for Wiggins' strengths.
Though still somewhat rusty one-on-one against a set half-court defense, he's going to get himself easy points on the break, above the rim and at the line. Wiggins' quick first step and explosive last one help neutralize his unrefined offensive skills by making it difficult for defenders to stay in front or contest him at the rim. He got to the stripe 20 times in one of his summer league games this July.
And he's at least shown improvement with regard to his ball skills and scoring attack—particularly his ability to create his own shot. At this point, it's going to take some time before he's connecting with consistency on those step-back and pull-up jumpers, but he's certainly capable. And with plenty of reps coming his way, the Wolves' coaching staff should be able to build up his confidence early on.
“I don’t really feel like it’s too much pressure right now," Wiggins told the media after a recent workout (via Dime Magazine). "I’ve been through being the No. 1 player in high school, in college, all that stuff. So, pressure to me has really died down; I don’t feel it as much as I used to.”
ProBasketballTalk's Kurt Helin mentions how getting thrown into the fire is the best way to learn. I'm expecting Wiggins to get better and better as the season progresses—just as he did at Kansas.
Dud: Dante Exum, Utah Jazz
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At just 19 years old and having played mostly against Australian high school competition, Dante Exum isn't quite ready to make an NBA impact.
We saw it in Las Vegas Summer League, where he averaged 7.2 points, more turnovers than assists and shot 30.8 percent from the field. And though this was a bit more expected, we saw Exum struggle against grown men in the 2014 FIBA Basketball World Cup.
It doesn't help that he was drafted by Utah, where he'll be forced to play off the ball alongside Trey Burke, putting him in a position that plays to his weaknesses as a shooter and away from his strengths as a playmaker.
We'll see Exum's upside in spurts, but don't expect much consistency or "takeover" offensive moments. He's on more of a three-year plan in Utah.
Stud: Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics
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Playing behind Rajon Rondo, at least to start, should be a good thing for Marcus Smart. His defense and energy will be valued, and decision-making duties will be limited.
Smart could make an impact with his ball pressure and motor alone.
But his passing instincts and attack game should result in plenty of positive offensive plays.
He reportedly "held his own" this summer against guys like Damian Lillard, Kyrie Irving and Derrick Rose at Team USA minicamp, per Fox Sports' Sam Amico, while Sheridan Hoops' Bobby Gonzalez noted how he and Victor Oladipo "took it" to John Wall and Bradley Beal.
Smart is built like an NFL running back at 220 pounds. He shouldn't run into any problems with the physical transition to the pros.
His erratic jumper and decision-making skills might lead to some inefficiency, but between his defense and playmaking ability, look for Smart to quickly emerge as an impact guard in Boston's rotation.
Dud: Julius Randle, Los Angeles Lakers
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Though Julius Randle's body suggests he might be NBA-ready, I'm not sure his game is up to speed.
His limited perimeter attack could hurt him next year, when he'll likely find out he can't rely on bullying opposing frontcourts.
Randle will ultimately have to develop a jumper to pick up some easier buckets away from interior traffic. He passes on too many open shots outside the key for contested ones closer to the rim.
And it's probably going to lead to a below-average shooting percentage for a diesel power forward.
Randle struggled at times in Las Vegas Summer League, where he shot just 41.9 percent and didn't make one shot outside the paint.
And after averaging less than a block and steal per game at Kentucky, I wouldn't count on Randle making much of a defensive impact in L.A. either.
Assuming coach Byron Scott loses interest in Carlos Boozer during what's likely to be a throwaway season, Randle should see his fair share of minutes. And given his athleticism and scoring instincts down low, he's bound to pick up some double-doubles here and there.
But with expectations considerably high following a terrific one-and-done season at Kentucky, I'm betting on Randle coming up just short.
Stud: Doug McDermott, Chicago Bulls
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I'm not sure Doug McDermott could have found a better home than the one he's got in Chicago, where his strengths will be highlighted, and his flaws will be masked.
The fear coming out of college was that McDermott's lack of athleticism would prevent him from getting his shot off in the pros. But in Chicago, McDermott won't have to worry about creating his own shot. His job will be to knock down the ones that find him in the offense, something he does as well as anyone, given that lightning-quick release and career 45.8 percent three-point stroke at Creighton.
McDermott dropped 18 points a game in Las Vegas Summer League without using many dribbles. Unlike most volume scorers out of college, McDermott knows how to play without the ball. He doesn't rely on one-on-one moves or isolation to score—the rookie Bull uses movement and screens to free himself up for catch-and-finish opportunities, whether it's as a slasher or shooter.
And with a playmaker like Derrick Rose and passers in Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah, he'll have veterans on his team who can draw attention and set him up.
Though not the greatest one-on-one defender, McDermott is a smart team defender, and given the strength of Chicago's team defense, it's unlikely he'll pose as much of a liability in what's likely to be a 20-25-minute role.
There's a reason the Bulls traded two mid-first-round picks to move up and grab him. They'll lean on McDermott's shot-making ability right away, and I'm betting he delivers.
Dud: Noah Vonleh, Charlotte Hornets
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Since slipping to No. 9 overall in the 2014 draft, Noah Vonleh has given us every reason to believe his rookie year will be quiet.
He was a disaster in Las Vegas Summer League, where he shot a dismal 28.4 percent from the floor, 12.5 percent from downtown and 67.7 percent from the line.
Vonleh just didn't look comfortable, having struggled to create high-percentage looks for himself while failing to convert on the good ones he got off.
To make matters worse, the first-year player had to undergo surgery to repair a sports hernia early in September. The six-to-eight-week recovery timetable should force him to miss most of training camp and preseason.
And he just turned 19 years old. After participating in only 21.4 percent of his college team's possessions, this is a kid who could use every practice and game rep he can get.
But the Hornets took him in the lottery based on his long-term potential, not the immediate impact they thought he'd make in 2014-15. If you're a Charlotte fan, just get comfortable with Marvin Williams and Cody Zeller getting most of the reps at the 4 this upcoming season.
Stud: Rodney Hood, Utah Jazz
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Rodney Hood is going to look like an awfully good pick at No. 23 overall when the Jazz get to unleash that sweet lefty jumper. And there should be available minutes for Hood, whose versatility might allow him to play up to three positions on the floor (depending on matchups).
At 6'8", he canned 42 percent of his three-pointers his sophomore year at Duke, where he spread the floor, worked in the post and finished in between in the mid-range.
Hood even racked up the most pick-and-roll reps as a ball-handler of any small forward in the draft class, while his 1.11 points per pull-up jumper ranked second at his position, per Matt Kamalsky of DraftExpress.
He's just a polished offensive player who can knock down shots, move the ball as a passer and put the ball on the floor.
Hood will likely have some quiet stretches, but in terms of his overall body of work, we could be talking about one of the first-round steals from 2014.
Honorable Mentions
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Studs
Nik Stauskas, Sacramento Kings
Stauskas will likely be backing up Ben McLemore to start in what should be a fairly complementary role off the bench. But with a deadlier jumper and much better passing instincts, we could see Stauskas' minutes increase as the season progresses.
T.J. Warren, Phoenix Suns
With P.J. Tucker, Gerald Green and Marcus Morris all returning, Warren probably won't see much time this year. But that shouldn't stop him from putting up points in limited minutes. He averaged 24.9 points as a sophomore and 17.8 in summer league. You just can't teach these type of scoring instincts.
Duds
Zach LaVine, Minnesota Timberwolves
LaVine's long-term future could be awfully bright, but don't expect much in 2014-15. Between Kevin Martin, Chase Budinger and Andrew Wiggins, LaVine's minutes will be limited, as will his effectiveness as a 180-pound 2-guard who doesn't get to the basket.
Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic
As Orlando's primary playmaker, Payton is almost a lock to lead all rookies in assists. But without a jumper or talent to play off in the lineup, I'm expecting him to struggle with offensive inconsistency. I wouldn't bet on Payton doing much scoring in 2014-15.
