Have We Seen the Last of Matt Cassel in Minnesota?

The topsy-turvy team that is the 2014 Minnesota Vikings was dealt another twist on Sunday with the loss of starting quarterback Matt Cassel. He only logged a drive beyond nine quarters of football after beating out rookie Teddy Bridgewater before the season began.

Early reports provide little comfort to the situation. Matt Vensel of the Star Tribune reports that Cassel has multiple broken bones in his foot which could sideline him for the remainder of the season. This doesn’t seem like a situation where he receives better news in the next few days either, with broken bones involved.

The injury cuts the season short for Cassel after he did everything he needed to do in order to win the job, so it’s an unfortunate development for a player who was probably on his last gig as a starting quarterback.

If indeed Cassel’s season is over, where he fits in the Vikings’ future plans is difficult to see at this point. Even if able to make a healthy return in 2014, which seems highly unlikely at this point, there are two reasons Cassel should not see the field again.

1. Cassel is a limited quarterback.

The limitations to Cassel’s skill set bleed into what the offense is capable of. It starts with the way he maneuvers in the pocket. Cassel only works a first or second read most often, feeling jitters in the crowded space if he holds onto the ball much longer. That combines with his inability to quickly recognize coverage and throw to holes in the defense without significant mental processing.

Even with the personnel the Vikings were able to assemble around him, only so much could be accomplished. The best NFL quarterbacks have the mental acuity and physical ability to make the right read and right throw on every down. Cassel could never reach that status.

The best strategy for any team in a situation with Cassel as a starter is to get the most out of him as a complementary quarterback. With a strong running game that opens up space in the secondary, especially through play action, Cassel could be effective. The loss of Adrian Peterson, at least in the short term, decreases Cassel’s value to the team as a starter.

Even when Peterson was on the field, the potential for downfield throws wasn’t there. The following chart shows where Cassel’s pass attempts had been aimed in terms of yards downfield in the 2014 season.

Self-created chart.

A remarkable 59 percent of throws are aimed at five yards downfield or less. Only 15 percent were thrown at 16 yards or more. The Vikings’ play-calling may have been too passive at times, but Cassel’s limitations played a big role too.

The Pro Football Focus premium statistic (subscription required) for percentage of yards in the air helps paint the picture as well. It measures what percentage of a quarterback’s yards are gained through the air in comparison to the total passing yards, so yards after the catch are eliminated. Cassel measures in at No. 24 out of 26 qualifiers with a lowly 35.2 percent of his yards through the air. The receivers did the bulk of his work, and that makes him more replaceable.

When Cassel did take downfield shots, he simply struggled to complete passes. Only two of his 11 attempts at 16 yards or deeper were completed. This chart displays Cassel’s downfield troubles.

Self-created chart.

All three of his interceptions were in the intermediate or deep areas of the field. Cassel’s fourth interception against New England was left off this chart because it was the result of a deflected pass off the helmet of his own receiver. Some throws that weren't officially scored are also included as long they could be properly used to evaluate Cassel's quality. AP stands for anomaly plays, or plays that provided overtly misleading outcomes, like throwing the ball away.

As you can see, the downfield aspect of the passing game was entirely missing with Cassel. The limitations to the offensive scheme were a direct result of the minimal capabilities of Cassel. Offensive coordinator Norv Turner tried to play to his strengths, but that minimized what the passing game could accomplish.

The final point here is that Cassel isn’t the type of game manager that a limited quarterback must be. Numerous throws against New England showed that, with him taking unnecessary risks that put the Minnesota defense in untenable positions.

His inability to make the routine look just that was also an undoing. These two third-down throws that Cassel misses are perfect examples of that from the last two weeks.

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Credit: NFL Game Rewind

Both of these throws could have been caught, but Cassel does his receiver no favors by throwing the ball well behind him. Routine throws like this needed to be completed. This reaction from Ryan Boser to the out route Cassel missed in New Orleans sums it up perfectly:

"

I mean if Cassel is gonna miss THAT throw by THAT much I don't know how you justify playing him. It will never get easier.

— Ryan Boser (@Ryan_Boser) September 21, 2014"

2. Cassel brings little future value.

Even when taking the quality of Teddy Bridgewater and the investment in him out of the equation, Cassel doesn’t have much appeal beyond this season as a starting quarterback. The Vikings knew that when signing him to a two-year contract this past offseason. With no dead money in 2015, Minnesota could easily get out of the contract after this season.

Cassel will be 33 years old at this time next year, which is not a promising number. He relies on his mobility to some degree. With each passing year, he becomes a more static quarterback, and the limitations continue to pile up.

Add in that the Minnesota decision-makers clearly think highly of the rookie quarterback, making him a first-round pick back in May. Stepping back from Bridgewater after this season and trotting Cassel back onto the field is about as likely as the Wile E. Coyote catching the Road Runner.

The caveat here is that Cassel is indeed under contract next season. Third-string quarterback Christian Ponder is not. Cassel knows Turner’s offense and will already have a relationship built with Bridgewater. He could provide value as a backup quarterback in 2015.

Cassel still has a long road back to full health, especially if his injury is more severe than initially reported. Assuming he does get back to 100 percent, it would take an injury to Bridgewater or some other unforeseeable circumstances to get him back on the field in Minnesota.

It’s a shame that a hard-working quarterback who took a long and winding road to starting football games as a quarterback might have started his final NFL game. This is probably that day for Cassel, though, at least with the Vikings.